(the three of us) Flutters, Whenifhow, and LasVegasDave.
Nate Silver’s unhappiness is only just beginning.....
So, in 2008, Obama’s OH counties had that 5.7% early vote edge, which has now been reduced to .4%, a swing of -5.3%. This, in a state Obama won by 4.6%. Sounds like good news to me!
If you go by body language Obama & wife looked wrecked tonight in Iowa. Also....Obama is taking tomorrow off to play basketball while Mitt hits the road....WTH ?! This is only a guess on my part, but perhaps Obama was told this weekend it’s over.
Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) tweeted at 12:55am - 6 Nov 12:
@fivethirtyeight Going to bed, but still do believe this data points to a very close finish in OH. We’ll find out tonight (!)
Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) tweeted at 12:55am - 6 Nov 12:
@fivethirtyeight Going to bed, but still do believe this data points to a very close finish in OH. We’ll find out tonight (!)
From this thread(http://forums.eog.com/showthread.php?t=336249&s=3c176108b04b9910bf7e5bb85c94af88&p=3601324#post3601324):
Leaked Data points to poor Democratic voter turnout in Ohio during early voting.
Dave WassermanOH EARLY VOTE: Data suggests a much narrower Dem early vote/enthusiasm advantage than in ‘08, all pointing to a photo finish (in Ohio) about an hour ago
Dave WassermanOH EARLY VOTE: Clear from this data that we are headed for a less Obama-favorable turnout model than ‘08, but far from clear who will win OH 18 minutes ago
Dave WassermanNot sure if @fivethirtyeight took down tweet. But to argue this data suggests only a 0.9% decline in Obama margin seems a little dismissive. 8 minutes ago
Dave WassermanOHIO EARLY VOTE: In Obama’s 10 best counties, turnout is down -6.5% vs. ‘08. Everywhere else, turnout is up 10.5%: https://t.co/iYyATGQf 20 minutes ago
Dave WassermanOHIO EARLY VOTE: Data suggests to win, Obama has to do more on E-Day to get out his target vote than in ‘08 https://t.co/iYyATGQf 57 minutes ago
Dave WassermanOH EARLY VOTE: Early turnout more than doubled in Richland and Wayne (both strong R counties), presumably b/c of Husted’s uniform rules about an hour ago
In an instant, you have to turn the entire world around...
... 3 AM, EST, Nov 6th 2012. So it begins.
A fad for folks who should be paying more attention to working or driving than doing thumb pushups.
Why is McCain mentioned TWICE above? Shouldn't the second McCain really say Romney?
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If that means anything it means something powerful. |
Wasserman tweeted that he still thinks Obama will win Ohio. I’m thinking Romney is going to squeak by there. Guess we’ll find out soon enough.
Nah, I still think Obama wins OH, just not by the 3.8% margin"
The 2008 model with those 2012 early voting data would yield a 2% statewide victory for Romney today.
Old model. New data. Incomplete. But that’s the story.
He endorsed MItt Romney and said that in a meeting he had with democrate union memeber (not official) they all said they were flipping over to Romney.I think that the Dem's are about to find out that a lot of those D voters on record will be switching over this time around.
Do we really know what to make of early voting? The last two elections have had ultra-high turnouts, long lines on election day. I voted on election day the past two elections. This time I voted early (in Rockingham County, NC—a not-too populated area). So, add one vote to early voting (for the Repub) AND TAKE AWAY ONE ELECTION DAY VOTE (from the Repub).
My guess is, from the Dems perspective, early voting is all about having more time to tamper with results, get more dead folks out to the polls, have their constituents vote “early and often”, while it (early voting) is more about convenience for Repub voters.
I really, really doubt this number. I think the 21.3% are really for Palin. /sarc>
Cheers!
Wasserman still predicts Obama wins Ohio...just not by the large amount that Silverman predicts.
And after tonight he should do the honorable thing and jump off the top the NY Slimes Building. Or down an elevator shaft, either works for me.