Ohio: "we're possibly on track for a significantly different turnout model vs. '08"

Dave Wasseeman, Cook Political Report ^ | 11-6

[Arthurio]

Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report has analyzed the early voter data from Ohio and seems to have concluded that Obama has done horribly in Ohio early voting. We are no longer talking about polls. He has analyzed hard data that was reported today by the Ohio Secretary of State.

Here are some of his tweets. Nate Silver is NOT happy.

Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) tweeted at 12:22am - 6 Nov 12:

@fivethirtyeight OH data seems high quality, and we're possibly on track for a significantly different turnout model vs. '08...(1/2)

Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) tweeted at 12:27am - 6 Nov 12:

By my calc, in '08, 24.8% of registered voters in Obama's OH counties voted early, 19.1% in McCain. Today, 21.7% Obama and 21.3% McCain

[C. Edmund Wright]

Nate Silver’s unhappiness is only just beginning.....

[cgbg]

This tweet is a rare exception to the rule this year:

Charlie Cook’s website has been just awful this election cycle—totally useless MSM drivel.

The guy used to know his stuff—maybe those DC cocktail parties have rotted his brain.

[arista]

So, in 2008, Obama’s OH counties had that 5.7% early vote edge, which has now been reduced to .4%, a swing of -5.3%. This, in a state Obama won by 4.6%. Sounds like good news to me!

[StopDemocratsDotCom]

http://www.natesilverwaswrong.com LOL

[LongWayHome]

If you go by body language Obama & wife looked wrecked tonight in Iowa. Also....Obama is taking tomorrow off to play basketball while Mitt hits the road....WTH ?! This is only a guess on my part, but perhaps Obama was told this weekend it’s over.

[Arthurio]

Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) tweeted at 12:55am - 6 Nov 12:

@fivethirtyeight Going to bed, but still do believe this data points to a very close finish in OH. We’ll find out tonight (!)

[Arthurio]

Dave Wasserman (@Redistrict) tweeted at 12:55am - 6 Nov 12:

@fivethirtyeight Going to bed, but still do believe this data points to a very close finish in OH. We’ll find out tonight (!)

[FreedomForce]

From this thread(http://forums.eog.com/showthread.php?t=336249&s=3c176108b04b9910bf7e5bb85c94af88&p=3601324#post3601324):

Leaked Data points to poor Democratic voter turnout in Ohio during early voting.

Dave WassermanOH EARLY VOTE: Data suggests a much narrower Dem early vote/enthusiasm advantage than in ‘08, all pointing to a photo finish (in Ohio) about an hour ago

Dave WassermanOH EARLY VOTE: Clear from this data that we are headed for a less Obama-favorable turnout model than ‘08, but far from clear who will win OH 18 minutes ago

Dave WassermanNot sure if @fivethirtyeight took down tweet. But to argue this data suggests only a 0.9% decline in Obama margin seems a little dismissive. 8 minutes ago

Dave WassermanOHIO EARLY VOTE: In Obama’s 10 best counties, turnout is down -6.5% vs. ‘08. Everywhere else, turnout is up 10.5%: https://t.co/iYyATGQf 20 minutes ago

Dave WassermanOHIO EARLY VOTE: Data suggests to win, Obama has to do more on E-Day to get out his target vote than in ‘08 https://t.co/iYyATGQf 57 minutes ago

Dave WassermanOH EARLY VOTE: Early turnout more than doubled in Richland and Wayne (both strong R counties), presumably b/c of Husted’s uniform rules about an hour ago

[liberty or death]

Just the “thought” that America would re-elect him tells me it’s time to prepare for WWIII.

[Dave Mellon]

Well this is an encouraging bit of news!

[C. Edmund Wright]

Oh thanks for that. Add this (under construction, but you’ll get the idea)
www.gone2012book.com

[FredZarguna]

Ever been lost on a one lane blacktop in the fog in the middle of the night, trying to get your bearings, believing you're headed south and suddenly realizing you're heading north?

In an instant, you have to turn the entire world around...

... 3 AM, EST, Nov 6th 2012. So it begins.

[LongWayHome]

The demographics are changing....and not in favor of the GOP I’m afraid. 25 years ago Obama would lose this thing by 10 points.

[LongWayHome]

Looks like some history in the happening here:)

[tomkat]

This copy / paste crap from twitter is unintelligible.

A fad for folks who should be paying more attention to working or driving than doing thumb pushups.

[library user]

my calc, in '08, 24.8% of registered voters in Obama's OH counties voted early, 19.1% in McCain. Today, 21.7% Obama and 21.3% McCain

Why is McCain mentioned TWICE above? Shouldn't the second McCain really say Romney?

[C. Edmund Wright]

I think that means McCain’s districts, the ones he carried in 08....but yes, those would be assumed Romney votes now...

[FreedomForce]

I think he’s just referencing the counties McCain fared well in on tbe assumption that Romney will do well in the same counties.

[sunmars]

also they seem to assume all those early dem votes are for Obama.......i would not assume that at all.