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Welcome, President Mitt Romney: GOP team will win tomorrow
American Spectator ^ | November 5, 2012 | Quin Hillyer

Posted on 11/05/2012 10:19:50 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet

Mitt Romney will be the next president of the United States. Paul Ryan, as vice president, will be breaking lots of 50-50 tie votes in the Senate. Bank on it.

Here's the big picture for the presidency: Romney will win the entire South, including "swing" states North Carolina, Florida and Virginia, plus all the usual solid-red states of the inland West. That gets him to 248 electoral votes. From there, he will need only one state from each of the next two conglomerations of three. He will need to win either Ohio, Pennsylvania, or Michigan, plus either Colorado, Wisconsin, or Minnesota. He will indeed take two of those six in the right combinations, and he will be president. And that doesn't even include New Hampshire (an absolute tossup), Iowa (I think it will go for Romney), or Nevada (probably an Obama state), or the lone elector from the Second Congressional District in Maine, which will go for Romney, too. And it doesn't include still theoretically possible longer shots Oregon (actually, it's doable) and New Mexico (probably not). Any of those states could help form other combinations that bring Romney to the 269-269 tie that he needs to carry the day -- or better.

What it boils down to is that it is Obama, not Romney, who really has to "run the table" in order to eke out a victory. But he won't. Romney will win, 284 Electoral Votes to 254 for Obama.

Romney will also win the popular vote, but with a plurality rather than a majority. I have it at Romney with 49.8 percent, Obama with 48.6 percent, and Gary Johnson/Virgil Goode/others at 1.6 percent...

(Excerpt) Read more at spectator.org ...


TOPICS: Constitution/Conservatism; Editorial; News/Current Events; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012; obama; romney; teaparty
Comments?
1 posted on 11/05/2012 10:20:01 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Colorado is Romney. There’s no question anymore. Romney actually won early voting, which means it’s pretty much impossible for Obama to win the state.

He needs either Ohio, Pennsylvania, or a combination of the smaller swing states (NH, IA/NV, and WI, for example).

PA is the longest shot, but I think either of the other two scenarios are quite possible.


2 posted on 11/05/2012 10:25:26 PM PST by TitansAFC (Nice job, Rick Santorum. Mission Accomplished! Grrrrrrrrrr.......................)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I think he’s low on the popular vote total for Romney. If he wins, he’ll be above 50 and probably 51%. A win means he is going to get strong turnout and more undecided/indies than in the polls. I have no clue on the electoral vote at this point. A win could be slim or moderate as he predicts, or it could open up big as some reliable guys like Barone predict. I felt much like Barone of the last few weeks, but the tightening of the polls in Ras and Gallup in the final days makes me think it won’t be that wide....but here’s hoping!


3 posted on 11/05/2012 10:27:59 PM PST by ilgipper (Obama supporters are comprised of the uninformed & the ill-informed)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
I think Romney will win by around 5 points nationally and have more than 300 electoral votes. I suspect the pollsters are playing it safe by erring on the side of the Democrats in assuming a 2008 turnout model. I think it will be a chik-fil-a turn out model. CNN makes the point for me in their latest poll, they have Romney and Obama tied at 48 nationally...but Romney up 26 points or so among independents...and a theoretical electorate of D+11. Yeah...uhm...sure...2008 only had D+8 or D+7 or so...but 2012 will have D+11...so the fact that Romney is slaughtering Obama among Independents is canceled out, lol.
4 posted on 11/05/2012 10:31:21 PM PST by AndyTheBear
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To: TitansAFC
I'm hoping that Pa comes in early and Romney wins....then I could sort of enjoy the night.....its been a nightmare for me for some time....

no kidding, I woke up in the middle of the night thinking about what if we don't get Ohio or pa and then I had to come downstairs and check my maps and my numbers again.......

this nightmare hopefully ends tomorrow...if not, I guess I'm ready for Jesus and the 2nd coming....

5 posted on 11/05/2012 10:33:17 PM PST by cherry
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Romney is going to win this big, it won’t be close.


6 posted on 11/05/2012 10:33:35 PM PST by fortheDeclaration (Pr 14:34 Righteousness exalteth a nation:but sin is a reproach to any people)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Here is where we are.

If Romney wins, we celebrate what it means for the Country.

If Obama wins, the other side celebrates what it means for them. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>...

If Romney loses, we feel sad for the future of our Country.

If Obama loses, the other side revels in their revenge.

7 posted on 11/05/2012 10:33:35 PM PST by Kickass Conservative (Win or lose, Impeach Obama Ben Ghazi...)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

The real story will be how the pubs blew it on the senate races.


8 posted on 11/05/2012 10:34:00 PM PST by cableguymn (The founding fathers would be shooting by now..)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Here is where we are.

If Romney wins, we celebrate what it means for the Country.

If Obama wins, the other side celebrates what it means for them. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>...

If Romney loses, we feel sad for the future of our Country.

If Obama loses, the other side revels in their revenge.

9 posted on 11/05/2012 10:36:27 PM PST by Kickass Conservative (Win or lose, Impeach Obama Ben Ghazi...)
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To: cableguymn
nobody ever predicted that the pubs would take the Senate....that has just recently....like in the last two weeks...been mentioned....

enough nerves around here and we're all pretty scared and you know what, its kind of tiring to read the same ol same ol pub bashing.....

this is not about the pubs....its about our country and our future ...

10 posted on 11/05/2012 10:37:14 PM PST by cherry
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Pretty much what I’m thinking. Thanks for the article.


11 posted on 11/05/2012 10:37:26 PM PST by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
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To: cherry

“...woke up in the middle of the night thinking about what if we don’t get Ohio or pa and then I had to come downstairs and check my maps and my numbers again...”

Great! Another command bunker patriot! You and me both!


12 posted on 11/05/2012 10:38:36 PM PST by Monterrosa-24 (...even more American that a French bikini and a Russian AK-47.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I should add that I don’t think Colorado or New Hampshire are toss ups. I believe both go Romney. Did you see the Romney New Hampshire rally earlier? Jam packed and electric!


13 posted on 11/05/2012 10:40:10 PM PST by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
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To: trappedincanuckistan
still worried about PA or Ohio...need one of them ....Or Wisconsin and Iowa...or Wisconsin and NH....

Lord...here our prayers....

14 posted on 11/05/2012 10:46:49 PM PST by cherry
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To: cableguymn

Mourdock and Akin threw away two slam dunk races.

I am just praying Romney hangs on and wins it.


15 posted on 11/05/2012 10:55:20 PM PST by comebacknewt (Newt (sigh) what could have been . . .)
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To: cherry

I feel good. I don’t believe the turnout advantage the polls assume will materialize. Obama’s early vote numbers across the board are down (these are supposedly his most reliable voters?), and Republicans according to most polls internals show Republican ID and enthusiasm are up which will translate into big turnout for them. Plus Romney is killing it with independents.


16 posted on 11/05/2012 10:55:30 PM PST by trappedincanuckistan (livefreeordietryin)
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To: cherry

In all honesty I’d rather see the second coming of Christ than anyone winning the presidency. So, it’s nice to know we win either way.

With that said, I believe Virginia, Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania will go early for Romney then all the dominoes will start to fall. Romney will win Ohio even though he won’t need it.


17 posted on 11/05/2012 10:55:44 PM PST by Terry Mross (To former friends and relatives. Don't ever contact me if you still support obama.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet; All

The man clearly has an extremely good track record predicting elections, I don’t think he would be reckless with that reputation......

Over the last decade,[B] Hillyer’s prognostications of national elections has landed him some unusual acclaim in political circles[/B]. While a columnist in Mobile, Alabama, a 1998 Washington Post column by Al Kamen labeled him the “Oracle of Mobile” for his accuracy in predicting the number of Congressional seats to be held by both parties after the election. [2]

In 1998 and 2000, his Mobile Register columns correctly predicted the number of seats won nationwide in the United States Congress by each party. In 2002, he missed the total by one seat.[3]

In 2004, he predicted the House numbers within one seat, and missed one state in the electoral battle between George W. Bush and John Kerry.[4]

On September 12, 2008, Hillyer correctly predicted the 52.9 percent popular vote for Barack Obama received in November. [5]

Hillyer noted a misfire he made in the 2006 elections, in which he incorrectly predicted the Republicans would hold the U.S. House of Representatives by one seat.


18 posted on 11/05/2012 11:02:13 PM PST by Names Ash Housewares ( Refusing to kneel before the "messiah".)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Quin Hillyer
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

“Oracle of Mobile”

Over the last decade, Hillyer’s prognostications of national elections has landed him some unusual acclaim in political circles. While a columnist in Mobile, Alabama, a 1998 Washington Post column by Al Kamen labeled him the “Oracle of Mobile” for his accuracy in predicting the number of Congressional seats to be held by both parties after the election. [2]

In 1998 and 2000, his Mobile Register columns correctly predicted the number of seats won nationwide in the United States Congress by each party. In 2002, he missed the total by one seat.[3]

In 2004, he predicted the House numbers within one seat, and missed one state in the electoral battle between George W. Bush and John Kerry.[4]

On September 12, 2008, Hillyer correctly predicted the 52.9 percent popular vote for Barack Obama received in November. [5]

Hillyer noted a misfire he made in the 2006 elections, in which he incorrectly predicted the Republicans would hold the U.S. House of Representatives by one seat.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quin_Hillyer

This guy certainly has cred.


19 posted on 11/05/2012 11:11:00 PM PST by sdcraigo
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To: Names Ash Housewares

I give Romney +2 points.

Hillyer is playing it safe because no one knows who’ll have the turnout advantage today.

Either way, he’s right on the money.


20 posted on 11/05/2012 11:11:28 PM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: Names Ash Housewares

Apologies for the redundant listing.


21 posted on 11/05/2012 11:13:27 PM PST by sdcraigo
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To: cherry

Looking at all those polls is what can make me go wobbly. In my gut, I feel that same feeling as 1980, only more so. Americans are really mad and tired of this nonsense.

They are about to have a temper tantrum as Peter Jennings said way back when. I am remembering the look on Dan Rather’s face the next morning when he said that Reagan’s solutions were just too simplistic, and shaking his head - like what were the Americans thinking.

We are still a center right America, and people of faith are still a huge voting block. Obama has riled almost everyone. He didn’t spend his formative years here, so I don’t think he even understands the depth of the anger that Americans feel or why.

The last 4 years have been so scary - all the unconstitutional actions unchecked by the other branches of government. Paranoia starts to creep in after a while, and I do think that voter fraud will be rampant.

I will pray every hour all day long for the Salvation and Restoration of America, and moral leaders worthy of trust.


22 posted on 11/05/2012 11:18:12 PM PST by greeneyes (Moderation in defense of your country is NO virtue. Let Freedom Ring.)
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To: greeneyes

Mittens... is not to my taste.

I’m prepared to be disappointed. But at least he won’t do more damage.


23 posted on 11/05/2012 11:45:12 PM PST by goldstategop (In Memory Of A Dearly Beloved Friend Who Lives In My Heart Forever)
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To: cherry

considering of the 33 races only 12 had to be defended I am going to beg to differ with you.

The pubs had a VERY good chance to get the senate. Others have mentioned MO and IN where all but thrown away by the pubs running their mouths (in, or out of context does not matter, they lost control of the message)

In Minnesota our senate candidate has been MIA. I have not seen or heard ONE ad from him.

I want them to win. I want them to control the senate. I hope at least they get 51. 60 would be icing on the cake.

if Reid remains in control NOTHING will happen. And lack of a budget will be kicked to Romneys feet in the press while it’s Reid that is killing it.


24 posted on 11/05/2012 11:54:41 PM PST by cableguymn (The founding fathers would be shooting by now..)
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To: goldstategop

I don’t know what kind of misguided policies might come out of Mitt Romney’s White House in the next four years. However, it will be an enormous relief knowing that Mitt at least will not be constantly scheming how to *intentionally* destroy (i.e., “fundamentally transform”) the Republic’s economy, traditions and institutions. Good riddance to the Marxist usurper.


25 posted on 11/05/2012 11:55:16 PM PST by kevao (Hey, Obama: The 1930s called, they want their economic policy back.)
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To: goldstategop

I liked Newt, he is actually the only candidate that had the experience, breadth of knowledge, and ability to articulate the conservative message to get Americans to really get the job done.

Remember Reagan used to say, well if Americans don’t agree with us, then we just haven’t explained it very well. Newt can explain it, and relate it back to the founding principles.

A T Party Senate and House is the best way to try to get Romney to do what is needed. JMO


26 posted on 11/05/2012 11:57:16 PM PST by greeneyes (Moderation in defense of your country is NO virtue. Let Freedom Ring.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Bookmarking in case of epic fail part III.


27 posted on 11/06/2012 1:49:55 AM PST by KantianBurke (Where was the Tea Party when Dubya was spending like a drunken sailor?)
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To: comebacknewt

“Mourdock and Akin threw away two slam dunk races.”

How do you know they have thrown them away? Seems like I have seen that Akin has come back. Shows a little grit in his craw to stand up to the GOP establishment. As for Mourdock, he is running in a Republican state. I think he still gets over the finish line first. I will grant you that maybe they should have not said things in the way they said, but no campaign ever goes gaffe free.


28 posted on 11/06/2012 5:44:59 AM PST by gbscott1954 (Please come back Sarah!!!)
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