Posted on 11/05/2012 10:19:50 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
Mitt Romney will be the next president of the United States. Paul Ryan, as vice president, will be breaking lots of 50-50 tie votes in the Senate. Bank on it.
Here's the big picture for the presidency: Romney will win the entire South, including "swing" states North Carolina, Florida and Virginia, plus all the usual solid-red states of the inland West. That gets him to 248 electoral votes. From there, he will need only one state from each of the next two conglomerations of three. He will need to win either Ohio, Pennsylvania, or Michigan, plus either Colorado, Wisconsin, or Minnesota. He will indeed take two of those six in the right combinations, and he will be president. And that doesn't even include New Hampshire (an absolute tossup), Iowa (I think it will go for Romney), or Nevada (probably an Obama state), or the lone elector from the Second Congressional District in Maine, which will go for Romney, too. And it doesn't include still theoretically possible longer shots Oregon (actually, it's doable) and New Mexico (probably not). Any of those states could help form other combinations that bring Romney to the 269-269 tie that he needs to carry the day -- or better.
What it boils down to is that it is Obama, not Romney, who really has to "run the table" in order to eke out a victory. But he won't. Romney will win, 284 Electoral Votes to 254 for Obama.
Romney will also win the popular vote, but with a plurality rather than a majority. I have it at Romney with 49.8 percent, Obama with 48.6 percent, and Gary Johnson/Virgil Goode/others at 1.6 percent...
(Excerpt) Read more at spectator.org ...
Colorado is Romney. There’s no question anymore. Romney actually won early voting, which means it’s pretty much impossible for Obama to win the state.
He needs either Ohio, Pennsylvania, or a combination of the smaller swing states (NH, IA/NV, and WI, for example).
PA is the longest shot, but I think either of the other two scenarios are quite possible.
I think he’s low on the popular vote total for Romney. If he wins, he’ll be above 50 and probably 51%. A win means he is going to get strong turnout and more undecided/indies than in the polls. I have no clue on the electoral vote at this point. A win could be slim or moderate as he predicts, or it could open up big as some reliable guys like Barone predict. I felt much like Barone of the last few weeks, but the tightening of the polls in Ras and Gallup in the final days makes me think it won’t be that wide....but here’s hoping!
no kidding, I woke up in the middle of the night thinking about what if we don't get Ohio or pa and then I had to come downstairs and check my maps and my numbers again.......
this nightmare hopefully ends tomorrow...if not, I guess I'm ready for Jesus and the 2nd coming....
Romney is going to win this big, it won’t be close.
If Romney wins, we celebrate what it means for the Country.
If Obama wins, the other side celebrates what it means for them. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>...
If Romney loses, we feel sad for the future of our Country.
If Obama loses, the other side revels in their revenge.
The real story will be how the pubs blew it on the senate races.
If Romney wins, we celebrate what it means for the Country.
If Obama wins, the other side celebrates what it means for them. >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>...
If Romney loses, we feel sad for the future of our Country.
If Obama loses, the other side revels in their revenge.
enough nerves around here and we're all pretty scared and you know what, its kind of tiring to read the same ol same ol pub bashing.....
this is not about the pubs....its about our country and our future ...
Pretty much what I’m thinking. Thanks for the article.
“...woke up in the middle of the night thinking about what if we don’t get Ohio or pa and then I had to come downstairs and check my maps and my numbers again...”
Great! Another command bunker patriot! You and me both!
I should add that I don’t think Colorado or New Hampshire are toss ups. I believe both go Romney. Did you see the Romney New Hampshire rally earlier? Jam packed and electric!
Lord...here our prayers....
Mourdock and Akin threw away two slam dunk races.
I am just praying Romney hangs on and wins it.
I feel good. I don’t believe the turnout advantage the polls assume will materialize. Obama’s early vote numbers across the board are down (these are supposedly his most reliable voters?), and Republicans according to most polls internals show Republican ID and enthusiasm are up which will translate into big turnout for them. Plus Romney is killing it with independents.
In all honesty I’d rather see the second coming of Christ than anyone winning the presidency. So, it’s nice to know we win either way.
With that said, I believe Virginia, Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania will go early for Romney then all the dominoes will start to fall. Romney will win Ohio even though he won’t need it.
The man clearly has an extremely good track record predicting elections, I don’t think he would be reckless with that reputation......
Over the last decade,[B] Hillyer’s prognostications of national elections has landed him some unusual acclaim in political circles[/B]. While a columnist in Mobile, Alabama, a 1998 Washington Post column by Al Kamen labeled him the “Oracle of Mobile” for his accuracy in predicting the number of Congressional seats to be held by both parties after the election. [2]
In 1998 and 2000, his Mobile Register columns correctly predicted the number of seats won nationwide in the United States Congress by each party. In 2002, he missed the total by one seat.[3]
In 2004, he predicted the House numbers within one seat, and missed one state in the electoral battle between George W. Bush and John Kerry.[4]
On September 12, 2008, Hillyer correctly predicted the 52.9 percent popular vote for Barack Obama received in November. [5]
Hillyer noted a misfire he made in the 2006 elections, in which he incorrectly predicted the Republicans would hold the U.S. House of Representatives by one seat.
Quin Hillyer
From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
“Oracle of Mobile”
Over the last decade, Hillyer’s prognostications of national elections has landed him some unusual acclaim in political circles. While a columnist in Mobile, Alabama, a 1998 Washington Post column by Al Kamen labeled him the “Oracle of Mobile” for his accuracy in predicting the number of Congressional seats to be held by both parties after the election. [2]
In 1998 and 2000, his Mobile Register columns correctly predicted the number of seats won nationwide in the United States Congress by each party. In 2002, he missed the total by one seat.[3]
In 2004, he predicted the House numbers within one seat, and missed one state in the electoral battle between George W. Bush and John Kerry.[4]
On September 12, 2008, Hillyer correctly predicted the 52.9 percent popular vote for Barack Obama received in November. [5]
Hillyer noted a misfire he made in the 2006 elections, in which he incorrectly predicted the Republicans would hold the U.S. House of Representatives by one seat.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Quin_Hillyer
This guy certainly has cred.
I give Romney +2 points.
Hillyer is playing it safe because no one knows who’ll have the turnout advantage today.
Either way, he’s right on the money.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.