Posted on 11/05/2012 10:11:15 AM PST by SoftwareEngineer
GALLUP: R 49% O 48%
(Excerpt) Read more at DrudgeReport.com ...
Thanks, I will take that as a compliment. I have to use some of that calculus I learned some where.
LOL. I knew you’d laugh. I did a double take when i saw it, and said to myself “I did not plan on seeing that today on FR.”
A lot of the polls have been mixing RVs and LVs lately.
You may be correct about that. But they certainly can fiddle with where they draw their samples, e.g, big city turnout = big D turn out, so sample from cities more than suburban and rural areas.
The way I see things in Pa, that is exactly what is happening. There is going to be an epic rural and suburban turnout in PA, at least equal to 2010 and probably greater than that.
We will see tomorrow.
I don’t get it either. Also, NJ and New York were going to go to obama anyway - and I imagine the folks in those states would be more influenced by a fly-over than most of the swing states.
On what critera?
Obama is going to get at best 47% of the vote.
Also, they have Romney at 50%, not 49% so why does the headline not say that?
Agreed!
Proportionally according to the % of the decided vote. Which would mean about 50.5% of the undecided was counted for Romney.
Romney is at 50% only after the allocation of undecided. The headline is not showing you the allocated figures, which is good, since that’s a dubious way of counting them.
What is nuts about the Rasmussen and Gallup polls is that they are not sampling based on there own party identification polls. Gallup has R+3 and Rasmussen R+5.
They are A) Playing it safe. If they are wrong, they don’t want to be wrong by A LOT. They can always claim a “late surge”.
B) Accounting for the Dems notorious ability to “turn out” votes...with all the creativeness that implies.
C) That much of a “plus” for Republicans is pretty unusual to trust completely if you are staking your business on the call.
Tomorrow is going to be SWEET!
per @numbersmuncher on twitter
Gallup poll isn’t as good for Obama as you’d think. His surge is in the East is why he shrunk gap. Still losing in Midwest, South, and West.
The polls are now as useless as teats on bulls. They all coalesced to a tie based on their modeling. Not all the models are the same yet all the polls are statistically tied. what does that tell you?
Well yes I like being slightly ahead.... in Gallup and Rass. I do believe the Benghazi noise was lifting Mitt and it was removed from the news for a week and the Sandy situation helped the President if not it took Libya away something he was struggling with. But if that is why he gets re-elected then this country is in kaos. I believe people know what to do on Tuesday. ELECT A NEW PRESIDENT.
I’m not scolding or questioning but you do agree that Silver’s sole aim is to rile the left’s usual set of enemies?
Like so many of their kind, he’s not interested in discussing ideology, policy or any other subject that might act as a unifying theme for his side.
I’m admittedly biased but we have many such subjects and they are debated every day, every hour here and elsewhere. It gets heated but there is usually respect and fair play.
I hear literally nothing about principles, ideals, philosophers, historical figures, etc. from the left. To them, history began 5 min ago or the last time they got one over on the big bad conservatives. The word ‘nihilistic’ seems a bit over the top but what other term describes such actions and attitudes?
He simply wants to agitate and, obviously, draw attention to himself.
“My Final: R-53%, O-46%, Others-1%”
I’ll play:
R-50.5%, O-47.5% Other 2%
Make it so!
Maybe, but I have met so many CPA's that just because they passed the CPA exam and know a little tax and accounting, they think that everyone else is an idiot.
They are impressed with image only. Fancy degrees and fancy work experience. If they admit that perhaps they are not as bright as they think they are their world falls apart.
I expect that Nate Silver will have some complicated math explanation when he is wrong at the same time somehow claim he was right. His type truly believes they are so superior that no one can challenge him.
There are most likely a lot more people who identify themselves as Democrats who will vote Romney than the other way around.
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