Using the D/R/I split of 39/37/24 that Scott put out yesterday, here are the raw numbers:
Gov Romney = (11*0.39)+ (86*0.37)+(53*0.24) = 48.83
Pres Obama = (89*0.39)+ (12*0.37)+(38*0.24) = 48.27
Now, let me re-do them with the Governor getting 95% of Republican support and the President thus getting 5% with NO other change
Gov Romney = (11*0.39)+ (95*0.37)+(53*0.24) = 52.16
Pres Obama = (89*0.39)+ (05*0.37)+(38*0.24) = 45.68
In other words: R:52 O:46
BOTTOM LINE: The Governor is surging at the right time. Independent numbers are fantastic. VOTE EARLY and VOTE OFTEN tomorrow ;-)
NOTE: Many of these numbers are internal and will NOT be available at the link above
Daily RAS ping!
Forget the polls. Come back Wed. and see who’s right
GOTV!
I’m done w/ polling and into VOTING! Going on my gut theory.... Obama can NOT attain his 2008 status nor mojo. Romney is NO McCain. Obama early votes are down GOP up. It will be close but Mitt 51.4 O 48.6 Romney w/ 279 EV
Great analysis. Romney up 15 with Indies is hugely important.
And the idea (in the most important election in our lifetime, when the GOP base’s enthusiasm is through the roof) that Romney will only get 86% of base vote is simply not believable.
Of all the statistics (Indies, Gender, Age), that is one that you can take to the bank. Even McCain got 93% of GOP votes.
Furthermore, if you look at all the polls released in the past 24-36 hours, almost every one shows Gov Romney with a low double digit lead amongst Indies. Indies are breaking hard for the Governor.
Obama cannot win if he lose Indies.
I predict 52-47, Romney.
What is the final result if you re-weight the electorate up to R+1 or R+2, in line with Gallup’s projection?
I note Ras gives Democrats a two point advantage. I don’t think that’s going to happen.
I kept waiting for that late break to Mitt from the undecideds...that didn’t happen...instead, they seem to have SPLIT.
That is entirely unrealistic. There's absolutely no way that someone who truly sees him/herself as a republican would be voting for Obama. I might see them voting other or not voting at all, but not for Obama.
That's insane, and it's a crack in Rasmussen's numbers.
The only thing that makes sense would be democrats falsely identifying as republicans, but I've heard of no such campaign whether official or unofficial. And for it to have such an enormous result, it would have had to have had a visible presence.
Finally, what is Rasmussen's current Margin of Error with 3000 LVs in each poll?
Just not possible in this universe. I wonder if some Democrats hear it is Rasmussan, they are purposely lying.
Every poll except Gallup is D+3 to D+11. Come on, people. There’s a reason why Romney is smiling and Obama is glaring and nasty. One also notices that The Lovely Michelle has been locked in a closet for the past several weeks.
Stuart Varney’s analysis is that Obama’s micro-bounce from Sandy and Christie’s Greek column treatment, is OVER. As it wears off, Romney will pull ahead, just at the right time, not a moment too soon. The Mittmentum returns! LET’S DO THIS!
Any guess on what the final Gallup number will be?
Gotta let him go, ladies (overall.. not here in FR). Obama's proven time and again he's no good for you and no good for the country. And yes, you'll get through this. Break that emotional bond...you can do it.
Ras is running a CYA operation at his polling firm. So just the fact that he has it at R 49 O 48 is his version of sticking his neck out and saying Romney is going to win.
With almost every National and State poll giving Obama less than 50% it’s fair to say that RR will pull this out. 52-47 is my bet.
For an incumbent polling at 48% the day before the election is not a good sign. An incumbent should be at least over 50% to have a chance of re-election.
Scott is predicting the winner of the election with this poll. But I think margin of victory is going to be larger for Mitt.
OHIO FYI:
After polls close, Ohio will begin the evening by releasing the results of absentee ballots it received before election day, around 8:30 p.m. About 1.3 million absentee ballots have been sent out to voters — and about 72% have already been cast.
Though those absentee votes may imply the election is going one way, those results could be completely turned around over the next few hours as results from in-person voting come in. The secretary of state’s office will release results from big counties every 15 minutes, medium-size counties every 30 minutes and small counties every hour.
If the election is close, America will have to wait 10 more days for the final results. Ohio has a law that stipulates that the secretary of state must wait 10 days before counting provisional ballots and late-arriving absentee ballots. All absentee ballots must be postmarked by Nov. 5 to count.
An automatic recount can’t happen until Nov. 27, and is triggered in Ohio when the result margin is less than 0.25%, or about 14,000 votes in an election in which 5.6 million votes are cast (5.7 million Ohioans voted in 2008).
There’s no way in the world the Democrats will have a +7 turnout advantage, which is how some polls have been weighted.
I think Romney wins a landslide.