Posted on 11/05/2012 6:39:32 AM PST by SoftwareEngineer
Monday, November 05, 2012
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 48%. Two percent (1%) prefer some other candidate, and one percent (1%) remains undecided.
Rasmussen Reports will conduct our final tracking poll tonight and release the results early Tuesday morning. Later today, we will issue our final swing state polls including Ohio, Virginia and New Hampshire.
Since mid-September, after the convention bounces faded, the candidates have generally been within three points of each other on a daily basis. Heading into the first presidential debate, Obama had a slight edge. After that debate, Romney had the advantage. For a few days in late October, Romney reached the 50% level of support and opened a modest lead. But the candidates have been tied or within two points for each other for the past eight days. See daily tracking history
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
We all knew it would tighten but I never doubted the outcome.
Its breaking open now, too late for the pollsters to capture.
Ras is trying to pretend its still closer to 2008! Nope - electorate split will be even or R+1 or R+2.
In that case, it won’t be a nail-biter finish. No hanging chads!
Goldstategop,
Basically at a 95% R voting for Gov Romney, for every 1 point you take away from D turnout, add 1 to Gov Romney
So, in my commentary above, I said it was R:52 O:46 if it was D+2
So if you went to R+1, you would add three points to the Governor and remove three from the President:
So: R: 55 O:43
Stuart Varney’s analysis is that Obama’s micro-bounce from Sandy and Christie’s Greek column treatment, is OVER. As it wears off, Romney will pull ahead, just at the right time, not a moment too soon. The Mittmentum returns! LET’S DO THIS!
Any guess on what the final Gallup number will be?
But the bump in his midsection continues to grow.
You’ve got to wonder what his definition of “republican” is if he has 12% voting for Obama. Like OAFla says, “raise your hand if you’re a republican voting for Obama.”
I’m trying to think of some way he could ask for party ID and have people be confused about what “republican” means.
It’s inconceivable to me that independents would turn to a republican and republicans would turn to the opposition.
That simply doesn’t add up.
Unbelievable!
We better pray Gallup is right because I want it to be a landslide.
I think it’ll be a Republican electorate and the pollsters and pundits will be shocked.
Not by Romney’s being elected but by the size of his win!
Colin Powell.
Oh, wait, you said a "Republican". Never mind.
Tony,
If I had to take a wild and speculative guess (as we have no data points) the Gallup poll will be R:50 O:47
They polled THU, FRI, SAT, SUN
We know from other polls that THU and FRI were great President Obama days and SAT and SUN were still OK polling days for the President
Now, sadly, the conspiratorial part of me feels that Hurricane Sandy gave Gallup a good “out” from their R+6 results.
They can put out a poll like R:49 O:48 and still claim that President Obama had a “bump” and normalize with the other polls
We shall find out in 3 hours
SE,
That’s exactly what MO seems to indicate 55-43.
If Gallup is right, its gonna be a blowout and people will be asking for years to come how the media and the pollsters got it so wrong.
Every one is playing this safe. But it looks more like 2010 than 2008.
Gotta let him go, ladies (overall.. not here in FR). Obama's proven time and again he's no good for you and no good for the country. And yes, you'll get through this. Break that emotional bond...you can do it.
Ras is running a CYA operation at his polling firm. So just the fact that he has it at R 49 O 48 is his version of sticking his neck out and saying Romney is going to win.
If they mean single women and lesbos, I can understand that....no way Obama is winning with married women.
Exactly!!!
MO has been 55R-43D since the summer.
Don’t know if that’s a bellwether predictor. Its been overlooked because every one has assumed its 2008.
If MO is right - it won’t be.
12% republicans? That’s 1 out of 8. I have not seen any republicans siding with the chair this time around.
Does anyone know what was the percentage of repubs that voted for the chair on ‘08?
With almost every National and State poll giving Obama less than 50% it’s fair to say that RR will pull this out. 52-47 is my bet.
Forget the polls.
Romney had a great weekend - every thing broke his way, great crowds, voter enthusiasm and the self-assurance of a man destined for great things. The visuals don’t lie.
Obama on the other hand, needed Clinton, drew small crowds, no one seems motivated to vote for him and one has the impression he’s just going through the motions now.
A deadlocked election? I don’t think so - one side had the Big Mo into Tuesday.
I called it after the second debate last month and I’m more sure than ever now Williard Mitt Romney will be our incoming and 45th President Of The United States!
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