Great analysis. Romney up 15 with Indies is hugely important.
And the idea (in the most important election in our lifetime, when the GOP base’s enthusiasm is through the roof) that Romney will only get 86% of base vote is simply not believable.
Of all the statistics (Indies, Gender, Age), that is one that you can take to the bank. Even McCain got 93% of GOP votes.
Furthermore, if you look at all the polls released in the past 24-36 hours, almost every one shows Gov Romney with a low double digit lead amongst Indies. Indies are breaking hard for the Governor.
Obama cannot win if he lose Indies.
I predict 52-47, Romney.
I said it before and will say it again:
The Indies seem to be watching the Sandy debacle closer than people thought.. They didn’t have the attention span to follow Benghazi, but once Staten Island turned into the 9th ward, Indies started breaking to Romney in every poll.
NH,
I agree totally.
My final call is 52-47, although we COULD be surprised by a one point upside
Here’s to all of us!
Cheers!