Skip to comments.Rasmussen Daily: MON 11/05: R:49 O:48 Obama -8%: ONE DAY TO GO!!
Posted on 11/05/2012 6:39:32 AM PST by SoftwareEngineer
Monday, November 05, 2012
The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Monday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 49% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns the vote from 48%. Two percent (1%) prefer some other candidate, and one percent (1%) remains undecided.
Rasmussen Reports will conduct our final tracking poll tonight and release the results early Tuesday morning. Later today, we will issue our final swing state polls including Ohio, Virginia and New Hampshire.
Since mid-September, after the convention bounces faded, the candidates have generally been within three points of each other on a daily basis. Heading into the first presidential debate, Obama had a slight edge. After that debate, Romney had the advantage. For a few days in late October, Romney reached the 50% level of support and opened a modest lead. But the candidates have been tied or within two points for each other for the past eight days. See daily tracking history
(Excerpt) Read more at rasmussenreports.com ...
Using the D/R/I split of 39/37/24 that Scott put out yesterday, here are the raw numbers:
Gov Romney = (11*0.39)+ (86*0.37)+(53*0.24) = 48.83
Pres Obama = (89*0.39)+ (12*0.37)+(38*0.24) = 48.27
Now, let me re-do them with the Governor getting 95% of Republican support and the President thus getting 5% with NO other change
Gov Romney = (11*0.39)+ (95*0.37)+(53*0.24) = 52.16
Pres Obama = (89*0.39)+ (05*0.37)+(38*0.24) = 45.68
In other words: R:52 O:46
BOTTOM LINE: The Governor is surging at the right time. Independent numbers are fantastic. VOTE EARLY and VOTE OFTEN tomorrow ;-)
NOTE: Many of these numbers are internal and will NOT be available at the link above
Daily RAS ping!
Forget the polls. Come back Wed. and see who’s right
I’m done w/ polling and into VOTING! Going on my gut theory.... Obama can NOT attain his 2008 status nor mojo. Romney is NO McCain. Obama early votes are down GOP up. It will be close but Mitt 51.4 O 48.6 Romney w/ 279 EV
Great analysis. Romney up 15 with Indies is hugely important.
And the idea (in the most important election in our lifetime, when the GOP base’s enthusiasm is through the roof) that Romney will only get 86% of base vote is simply not believable.
Of all the statistics (Indies, Gender, Age), that is one that you can take to the bank. Even McCain got 93% of GOP votes.
Furthermore, if you look at all the polls released in the past 24-36 hours, almost every one shows Gov Romney with a low double digit lead amongst Indies. Indies are breaking hard for the Governor.
Obama cannot win if he lose Indies.
I predict 52-47, Romney.
What is the final result if you re-weight the electorate up to R+1 or R+2, in line with Gallup’s projection?
I note Ras gives Democrats a two point advantage. I don’t think that’s going to happen.
I said it before and will say it again:
The Indies seem to be watching the Sandy debacle closer than people thought.. They didnt have the attention span to follow Benghazi, but once Staten Island turned into the 9th ward, Indies started breaking to Romney in every poll.
I kept waiting for that late break to Mitt from the undecideds...that didn’t happen...instead, they seem to have SPLIT.
That is entirely unrealistic. There's absolutely no way that someone who truly sees him/herself as a republican would be voting for Obama. I might see them voting other or not voting at all, but not for Obama.
That's insane, and it's a crack in Rasmussen's numbers.
The only thing that makes sense would be democrats falsely identifying as republicans, but I've heard of no such campaign whether official or unofficial. And for it to have such an enormous result, it would have had to have had a visible presence.
Finally, what is Rasmussen's current Margin of Error with 3000 LVs in each poll?
Just not possible in this universe. I wonder if some Democrats hear it is Rasmussan, they are purposely lying.
The anecdotal evidence from a Freeper in Warren County OH last night was incredibly exhilarating. He said there was a three hour wait to vote.
Warren is the reddest of red. It went for McCain about 2:1, but absentees were running ahead of that. If we turn out Warren by 3:1, it will be killer.
Raise your hand if you know a Republican voting for Obama lol..
I agree totally.
My final call is 52-47, although we COULD be surprised by a one point upside
Here’s to all of us!
I don’t think it’ll be that low!
Ras’ bias is showing in D+2 - I’ve asked SE to correct for it in with Gallup’s projection this year’s election will be GOP majority and Ras is assuming GOP voting will be like in 2008.
I think he’s off here.
I can only assume the recent uptick for the POS magic negro is due to the storm. Pathetic.
Still no power for us and thousands here in WV and just got internet back enough to read/post. I would fire every politician in office and every boss at First Energy.
There is not nearly enough line damage here to excuse the power being out for weeks. Inexcusable and urine poor response to this minor storm. Fire them all.
One more thing, a friend of mine who is a lifelong bleeding heart Democrat is voting for a Republican for President for the first time in her life tomorrow.
Every poll except Gallup is D+3 to D+11. Come on, people. There’s a reason why Romney is smiling and Obama is glaring and nasty. One also notices that The Lovely Michelle has been locked in a closet for the past several weeks.
The Gov Christie bump is fading!
What is Rasmussen’s MOE on this poll?
We all knew it would tighten but I never doubted the outcome.
Its breaking open now, too late for the pollsters to capture.
Ras is trying to pretend its still closer to 2008! Nope - electorate split will be even or R+1 or R+2.
In that case, it won’t be a nail-biter finish. No hanging chads!
Basically at a 95% R voting for Gov Romney, for every 1 point you take away from D turnout, add 1 to Gov Romney
So, in my commentary above, I said it was R:52 O:46 if it was D+2
So if you went to R+1, you would add three points to the Governor and remove three from the President:
So: R: 55 O:43
Stuart Varney’s analysis is that Obama’s micro-bounce from Sandy and Christie’s Greek column treatment, is OVER. As it wears off, Romney will pull ahead, just at the right time, not a moment too soon. The Mittmentum returns! LET’S DO THIS!
Any guess on what the final Gallup number will be?
But the bump in his midsection continues to grow.
You’ve got to wonder what his definition of “republican” is if he has 12% voting for Obama. Like OAFla says, “raise your hand if you’re a republican voting for Obama.”
I’m trying to think of some way he could ask for party ID and have people be confused about what “republican” means.
It’s inconceivable to me that independents would turn to a republican and republicans would turn to the opposition.
That simply doesn’t add up.
We better pray Gallup is right because I want it to be a landslide.
I think it’ll be a Republican electorate and the pollsters and pundits will be shocked.
Not by Romney’s being elected but by the size of his win!
Oh, wait, you said a "Republican". Never mind.
If I had to take a wild and speculative guess (as we have no data points) the Gallup poll will be R:50 O:47
They polled THU, FRI, SAT, SUN
We know from other polls that THU and FRI were great President Obama days and SAT and SUN were still OK polling days for the President
Now, sadly, the conspiratorial part of me feels that Hurricane Sandy gave Gallup a good “out” from their R+6 results.
They can put out a poll like R:49 O:48 and still claim that President Obama had a “bump” and normalize with the other polls
We shall find out in 3 hours
That’s exactly what MO seems to indicate 55-43.
If Gallup is right, its gonna be a blowout and people will be asking for years to come how the media and the pollsters got it so wrong.
Every one is playing this safe. But it looks more like 2010 than 2008.
Gotta let him go, ladies (overall.. not here in FR). Obama's proven time and again he's no good for you and no good for the country. And yes, you'll get through this. Break that emotional bond...you can do it.
Ras is running a CYA operation at his polling firm. So just the fact that he has it at R 49 O 48 is his version of sticking his neck out and saying Romney is going to win.
If they mean single women and lesbos, I can understand that....no way Obama is winning with married women.
MO has been 55R-43D since the summer.
Don’t know if that’s a bellwether predictor. Its been overlooked because every one has assumed its 2008.
If MO is right - it won’t be.
12% republicans? That’s 1 out of 8. I have not seen any republicans siding with the chair this time around.
Does anyone know what was the percentage of repubs that voted for the chair on ‘08?
With almost every National and State poll giving Obama less than 50% it’s fair to say that RR will pull this out. 52-47 is my bet.
Forget the polls.
Romney had a great weekend - every thing broke his way, great crowds, voter enthusiasm and the self-assurance of a man destined for great things. The visuals don’t lie.
Obama on the other hand, needed Clinton, drew small crowds, no one seems motivated to vote for him and one has the impression he’s just going through the motions now.
A deadlocked election? I don’t think so - one side had the Big Mo into Tuesday.
I called it after the second debate last month and I’m more sure than ever now Williard Mitt Romney will be our incoming and 45th President Of The United States!
For an incumbent polling at 48% the day before the election is not a good sign. An incumbent should be at least over 50% to have a chance of re-election.
Scott is predicting the winner of the election with this poll. But I think margin of victory is going to be larger for Mitt.
Obama, according to these crosstabs, gets 13% of the conservative vote? Horse dung.
Notice also that the “strong” responses, both approve and disapprove, are going way up.
I don't know, but it's a very good question.
Between Slick, 0 and Moochelle, do ANY of them still hold their law licenses?
What I saw these last two days in Romney is a happy man having the time of his life and he’s enjoying it enormously and win or lose - no one can take it away from him!
Sure, victory will be the sweet icing on the cake but there are moments like this in your life where you just get to have fun.
Romney is not taking this election too seriously and that’s a great thing to see in a human being. He’s run a terrific campaign and that’s something that will stay with him for the rest of his life!
After polls close, Ohio will begin the evening by releasing the results of absentee ballots it received before election day, around 8:30 p.m. About 1.3 million absentee ballots have been sent out to voters and about 72% have already been cast.
Though those absentee votes may imply the election is going one way, those results could be completely turned around over the next few hours as results from in-person voting come in. The secretary of states office will release results from big counties every 15 minutes, medium-size counties every 30 minutes and small counties every hour.
If the election is close, America will have to wait 10 more days for the final results. Ohio has a law that stipulates that the secretary of state must wait 10 days before counting provisional ballots and late-arriving absentee ballots. All absentee ballots must be postmarked by Nov. 5 to count.
An automatic recount cant happen until Nov. 27, and is triggered in Ohio when the result margin is less than 0.25%, or about 14,000 votes in an election in which 5.6 million votes are cast (5.7 million Ohioans voted in 2008).
I heard you the first time.
There’s no way in the world the Democrats will have a +7 turnout advantage, which is how some polls have been weighted.
I think Romney wins a landslide.
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