Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

Skip to comments.

Romney still faces an uphill battle on Electoral College
New York Times ^ | Nate Silver

Posted on 10/04/2012 4:43:25 PM PDT by oneprolifewoman

The FiveThirtyEight forecast had Mr. Obama gaining slightly on Wednesday, estimating that he had a 86.1 percent chance of winning the Electoral College on Nov. 6 — up from 84.7 percent in Tuesday’s forecast.

This came despite the fact that it appeared there actually had been a modest shift back toward Mitt Romney in the polls even before the debate. In our “now-cast” — an estimate of what would happen if an election were held immediately — Mr. Obama’s projected margin of victory in the national popular vote had fallen by about one percentage point between Sunday and Wednesday.

Our Nov. 6 forecast, however, had already anticipated some decline for Mr. Obama, and so has been less sensitive to the shift.

In addition, there is a particular Electoral College outlook that is becoming problematic for Mr. Romney. As of Wednesday, our Nov. 6 forecast had Mr. Obama winning the popular vote by 4.1 percentage points. However, his advantage was larger than that — at least 4.9 percentage points, in 22 states (and the District of Columbia) — totaling 275 electoral votes:

(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: Editorial
KEYWORDS: dailykos; election2012; koshack; liberalism; propaganda; romney; vote
Don't become complacent in spite of Romney's great debate. It's still going to take every effort to try to win this election.
1 posted on 10/04/2012 4:43:33 PM PDT by oneprolifewoman
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: oneprolifewoman

Nate Silver is a hack.


2 posted on 10/04/2012 4:47:17 PM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: oneprolifewoman

Nate Silver is a Daily Kos libtard. He’s probably trying to cheer up his comrades after Obama got his ass handed to him.


3 posted on 10/04/2012 4:48:41 PM PDT by 1035rep (Obama: "I killed Bin Laden" ...you didn't do that. Somebody else made that happen.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: oneprolifewoman

Ah, Nate Silver—the underbelly of the leftist journalistas.

It just doesn’t get more irrelevant than this guy’s rantings.


4 posted on 10/04/2012 4:49:27 PM PDT by SharpRightTurn ( White, black, and red all over--America's affirmative action, metrosexual president.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: nhwingut

FUNS. We’re not demoralized and we don’t believe any of your $#!t.


5 posted on 10/04/2012 4:51:53 PM PDT by AdamBomb
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 2 | View Replies]

To: oneprolifewoman

It’ll soon be known that Obama has Electoral Dysfunction.


6 posted on 10/04/2012 4:52:11 PM PDT by sanjuanbob
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: oneprolifewoman

Fine, then battle uphill.

Only way to take a hill in a battle is to bomb and shell the hell out of the summit while you keep moving troops up the hill.


7 posted on 10/04/2012 4:52:57 PM PDT by The KG9 Kid (Semper Fi)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: oneprolifewoman

Silver is a homosexual activist. Pretty clear his personal politics are trumping his intellectual honest.

Problem for Nate is he cherry picks which polls he wants to believe and which he discounts.


8 posted on 10/04/2012 4:54:29 PM PDT by MNJohnnie (Giving more money to DC to fix the Debt is like giving free drugs to addicts think it will cure them)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: MNJohnnie

Nate Silver won’t even be a name after this election. He’ll have lost all credibility.


9 posted on 10/04/2012 4:56:47 PM PDT by Viennacon
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: oneprolifewoman
Who gives a crap. It is either Romney or Civil War. That's the real choice.
10 posted on 10/04/2012 4:57:12 PM PDT by Logical me
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

Support Free Republic


11 posted on 10/04/2012 4:58:28 PM PDT by RedMDer (https://support.woundedwarriorproject.org/default.aspx?tsid=93destr)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | View Replies]

To: oneprolifewoman

As soon as I clicked on this article I knew right away it was bull. He has Ohio and Wisconsin blue. Obama’s largest super pac pulled out of Wisconsin today. And Florida.

Every poll watcher on fr knows Ohio is Romney’s.


12 posted on 10/04/2012 5:01:12 PM PDT by barmag25
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Logical me
Who gives a crap. It is either Romney or Civil War. That's the real choice.

I think Romney gives us a chance to turn things around. Not much of a chance, but it's our only option right now. If Hussein wins, the path of dependence and debt this nation is on will accelerate and lead to economic ruin. And yes, the result of economic implosion will probably be some form of domestic strife.

13 posted on 10/04/2012 5:02:16 PM PDT by Longbow1969
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 10 | View Replies]

To: oneprolifewoman

Silver is such a child. He STILL hasn’t figured out the data from the absentee OH voting, which disproves his entire polling scam.


14 posted on 10/04/2012 5:06:31 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: MNJohnnie

See the article in the Washington Examiner about our OH early/absentee numbers that we’ve been following? Totally disproves Silver”s little poll numbers.


15 posted on 10/04/2012 5:08:40 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually (Hendrix))
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 8 | View Replies]

To: LS

Reminds me of another ny times employee who said, how did Nixon win I didnt know anyone who voted for him


16 posted on 10/04/2012 5:23:34 PM PDT by italianquaker (The 47 pct need to pay their fair share)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 15 | View Replies]

To: barmag25

“As soon as I clicked on this article I knew right away it was bull. He has Ohio and Wisconsin blue. Obama’s largest super pac pulled out of Wisconsin today. And Florida.
Every poll watcher on fr knows Ohio is Romney’s.”

Rasmussen:
Wisconsin Obama, 49%; Romney, 46%
Ohio: Obama, 47%; Romney, 46%..

Source:
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/archive/2012_electoral_college_scoreboard

Romney is close behind in both of the above states, but he’s still behind.
It’s not over yet. More work to do....


17 posted on 10/04/2012 5:26:56 PM PDT by Road Glide
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 12 | View Replies]

To: oneprolifewoman

Don’t let the obama camp tell you where this election is.

LLS


18 posted on 10/04/2012 5:33:30 PM PDT by LibLieSlayer ("If it looks like you are not gonna make it you gotta get mean, I mean plumb mad-dog mean" J. Wales)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: oneprolifewoman
The political professors and the University of Colorado still disagree with the pencil pushers at nyt.
19 posted on 10/04/2012 5:42:27 PM PDT by mountainlion (Live well for those that did not make it back.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: oneprolifewoman

This Nate Silver stuff is fake. Go check out the offshore odds, lots of good stuff there.


20 posted on 10/04/2012 6:24:41 PM PDT by Paddy Irish
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: oneprolifewoman

I agree with your sentiment

Both LA and NY have a slimes....figures.


21 posted on 10/04/2012 6:31:10 PM PDT by Nifster
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: oneprolifewoman

I most definitely agree with your message. Romney did great last night, but there’s still work to do. I won’t rest easy until I hear Obama give his concession speech on election night.


22 posted on 10/04/2012 6:53:45 PM PDT by DemforBush (100% Ex-Democrat.)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 1 | View Replies]

To: Longbow1969

Yup.

If Romney wins, it will be back to the pitched battle of left vs right, with the left still running the media, academia and half of Washington, including all Democrats and some GOP staffers.

If Obama wins, the lights go out on America. Its over.


23 posted on 10/04/2012 6:55:02 PM PDT by WOSG (REPEAL AND REPLACE OBAMA. He stole America’s promise!)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 13 | View Replies]

To: LS

He Won’t, his livelyhood depends on touting the One. Intellectual honesty is not his strength.


24 posted on 10/06/2012 5:20:48 AM PDT by CPT Clay (Follow me on Twitter @Clay N TX)
[ Post Reply | Private Reply | To 14 | View Replies]

Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.

Free Republic
Browse · Search
News/Activism
Topics · Post Article

FreeRepublic, LLC, PO BOX 9771, FRESNO, CA 93794
FreeRepublic.com is powered by software copyright 2000-2008 John Robinson