Posted on 09/25/2012 5:30:24 AM PDT by Kaslin
Just like with McCain though it will come down to a few states and which way those states go. Really percentages of possible overall turnout and voting do not give the clear picture. If Mitt cannot take the needed battleground States he could possibly be 3 points ahead and still loose.
Mel
Higher poll numbers means higher donations.
Pray for America
The electoral college projections at RCP are still a bit troubling to me. I’d like to see more points in Mitt’s column right now.
I keep hearing and reading this assertion but what is the basis for it? (besides Rush said it.)
There is also a theory that if a candidate peaks too soon that the voters can get buyers remorse and the other candidate becomes the underdog, demotivating the first's base voters and motivating the second’s base voters. In addition the media gets bored and starts going after the one on top to keep the story going, no story without a race.
Why bother voting if you are not enthused and you think your side will win easily anyway?
I am always suspicious of these grand conspiracy theories.
How did the exit polls do in 2010? Garbage in Garbage out, they are only used to defeat us.
Pray for America
I dont remember any polls showing Dems would win in 2010. In 2010 Freepers loved the polls then. Where was the grand conspiracy then?
I think the Debates are going to be interesting. Romney practiced last week and Obama is practicing this week in Nevada. We will have to see how the first one goes next week.
I should have said ‘many’ polls, Dems did win NV and DE and CA Senate races.
Romney is no Reagan (THERE -- I got the #1 objection out of the way!) but what the MSM is doing today is exactly what the MSM was doing in 1980.
The best indicator that Obama is in trouble, is his frenzied campaigning in battleground states, and his neglecting of his job at the White House.
When our embassies are burning and our people are getting killed, the president should be spending more time addressing those problems, but, his biggest priority is campaigning, the problems of the country be damned.
He knows that the polls showing him ahead are not reflecting reality, and thus, he has to spend every minute he can campaigning.
...”This is not the result of some grand liberal media conspiracy. Rather, it is a time honored technique that liberal-leaning groups have used for years. This is nothing new.”....
I disagree with the author that this is not a grand liberal media conspiracy. I think it is, based on the existence of the Journolist “scandal”. The so-called MSM are all in on Obama and are pulling out all the stops. However, it will do them no good - they have awakened the sleeping giant, and we will crush them and the Affirmative Action Squatter who despoils our White House.
Such experienced pols/pundits as Newt Gingrich have been saying that the idea of a few states controlling, apart from the whole electoral college and popular vote, is bunk.
Newt pointed out that states don’t go wildly opposite the rest of the states, or opposite the popular vote, but fit in within a historical trend and with other facts of the vote.
He’s not talking about polls well before the election but the actual vote.
He also does not believe in aiming a campaign at each of several individual “swing” states as if that would pull the country along. Instead, he says the country as a whole and the swing states will tend to perform collectively and individually “in sync”, therefore run a national campaign WELL, and the necessary states will come to you ON ELECTION DAY.
McCain ran an awful campaign, and he was up against a candidate that mesmerized the country with youth, teleprompter speaking ability, the first Black potiential president, etc. Yes McCain won certain reliable Republican states anyway, because the nation IS divided along somewhat reliable lines.
But the reason he saw Indiana, NC, VA, FL, OH etc slip away ISN’T THAT HE FAILED IN THOSE STATES BUT THAT HE FAILED NATIONALLY.
Very nice analysis of the phony lib polls. But I get nervous when I read this:
+++++++++++
Rasmussen shows the current party affiliation as 37.6% Republicans, 33.3% Democrats and 29.2% Independents.
+++++++++++
Unfortunately Raz is the one pollster that we consider trustworthy and, given his view that the GOP has a 4 point party affiliation advantage over the Dem, it seems very, very unlikely that he is using a Turnout Model that oversamples Democraps.
And Rasmussen has the race essentially dead-even.
You really cannot reconcile the Rasmussen polling with the conclusions of this article. At least I can’t.
Better yet, call R+R and tell them to quit screwing around and to get on O’s case.
Praying for a specific candidate to win doesnt seem like that great of an idea. Usually backfires.
I dont remember anything like that. It was constant cheering and giddiness here and circular firing squads over at DU, pretty fun to read too. Lots of complaining about Obama in those days.
The only concern here was over a couple of Senate races.
Just like the mainstream media, pollsters are much less interested in credibility than they are interested in RELEVANCE.
If you own a polling company and want some press, you must put out a poll that puts Obama in the lead. There is a reason that unskewedpolls.com doesn’t find its results on the front page. It simply doesn’t help the narrative that both the media and pollsters want to push.
Relevance is what they seek, they are attempting to persuade, not report objectively.
You are quite right.
Mitt has a shot. But he hasn’t won yet.
And the clock is ticking. I’d sure like to see a 3 point bump in each of Ohio, FL and VA.
Short of that, and that in the next 45 days, obama will win. But, with that, Romney will win.
It’s that simple.
The RCP electoral college projections are based on the same type of D-skewed polling, and is subject to the same error.
Any state where the poll average has -bama with less than an 8-point lead is either in play or in Romney’s camp.
Go through the RCP projections and see how that knowledge changes your concerns.
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