Posted on 09/25/2012 5:30:24 AM PDT by Kaslin
Wrong, all of the polls showed the Dems either holding the house or losing around 5-10 when they lost 65. I remember since I was saying they would lose 100 and was laughed at until the election.
They showed Brown losing, Walker losing and lately tons of Tea Party candidates losing primaries.
Freepers love being negative, it makes them feel smart.
This will be a landslide.
Many older southerners registered D decades ago. They vote R. There were only a few thousand Republicans (registered as such) in Louisiana in the late 1980s.
I can’t cite it or link it, but on poll threads I have read that RAS is not using his current Repub/Dem breakdown results or the 2010 turnout in his current polls.
Just what he IS using has been guessed at, or surmised, by people who study these things, and they claim it’s either past models or somewhere in between then and now, and 08 and 2010.
IOW, just because he has alternative info to what the clearly flawed polls are using doesn’t mean the most updated info is baked into his polls. He picks and chooses like a cafeteria menu, they are saying.
His polls obviously are better than the ones showing Obama with a sizable lead.
That’s about the size of what we can claim for RAS.
The most troubling poll to conservatives is the Fox News poll. I doubt Fox News would be part of a liberal conspiracy.
My opinion as well and I've held that opinion since this time last year.
Yes I remeber on Fox guys like Krauthammer, Barrone and Hume all handwringing, that meme "Don't get all excited, pollsters say..blah, blah". Well election night a.... big DUH!!!!! Ok this is fairly simple and proven out through about 15 election cycles now, if the MSM shows a tie the Republicans win. if they show a small lead for the R, its a blowout. If ALL the polls like 2008 with Oblameo with a 5-7 point lead then we can be fairly certain the R will lose. I thinks its a 3-5% fudge factor for the Democrats, they do it every election cycle. Obama as it stands right now is going to lose period. Some Freepers can mine info to the contrary, but book it, its over.
really? All the polls said that HUH?? Did Rush just say that?
Funny thing, I dont see any complaining that these polls dont mean anything on that thread.
www.unskewedpolls.com
Really ???
I remember this
Is Rush using mass hypnosis now? What is it with these crazy 'We all thought we were losing in 2010' comments?
You can download the "Polls Adjustment Calculator" fron the link below: "
http://www.fileconvoy.com/dfl.php?id=g0f9a1c6111e9b12e14951111d0a0649192bfc3
The first section is to enter the results from a media poll, including % of democrats, % of Republicans, % of Independents, enter % Obama, % Romney, % Undecided, % Others for each of these groups ( i.e. demorats, Republicans, Independents)…
The second section is to t adjust the % democrats, % Republicans, % of Independents to match a more realistic elections turnout for each group. The worst case scenario would be democrats + 3% over Republicans. Make sure that when you do the adjustments for each of these group that they add to 100%.
The third section is the assignment of the % of undecided to each Romney and Obama. So you need to enter the % of undecided for Romney and those for Obama. Historically the undecided go 2:1 for the challenger… "
I do not think that Rasmussen is using R +4 in his polling. The evidence is that Romney is winning independents in the vast majority of Rasmussen polls (as well as other media polls including the biased ones) but still Romney is tied in Rasmussen, slightly ahead, or slightly behind. I think Rasmussen is using D+3 in his pollings.
Even with the over-sampling, these polls are hardly showing Obama with a "decisive" lead. The Gallup and Rasmussen polls have showed basically a dead heat and state polls clearly show Republicans in a stronger position then in 2008, which is why Romney was out in Colorado over the past weekend (a state that went to Obama by nearly 10 points in 2008).
??? You too? Mass hypnosis? WTF?? You folks are scary.
This 2010 FR post says polls were showing Rs 47 leading, 52 total ahead and another 20 in danger , thats 72 total. Yet some freepers here remember polls saying Republicans would lose seats 2010, or break even.
Republicans are now leading in 47 congressional districts held by Democrats. (This is up 8 just since last week.) There are another 5 seats held by retiring Democrats in significantly Republican-leaning districts which have not been polled. That's a total of 52 seats, almost equal to the number gained by Republicans in the 1994 election (54). There are another 20 where Republicans have pulled very close to Democrats, and the Democrats are polling well below 50%, normally a sign of grave danger this early in the election season. And of course, although the media tend to poll the races where the suspect the greatest likelihood of a strong challenged, there are still dozens of competitive seats which have not been polled yet.
District-by-district polls already show 2010 should eclipse 1994. (So make it happen!) Various poll sources ^ | 9-6-10 | Dangus Posted on Monday, September 06, 2010 7:46:37 AM by dangus
Considering the failure of this incumbent this race should not even be close nationally. It is. The only ads and spin I see coming from the Obama campaign are personal negative attacks vs the challenger basically because Obama has no record to run on and absolutely no ideas.I see no negative Obama ads put out by Romney. Romney needs to bring a gun to this knife fight.Can the soaring rhetoric for now and go negative on Obama and the Obama economy all the time to get Obama’s numbers back down.I want to see ads with plenty of foreclosure signs, unemployment office lines,high gas price signs, out of business signs ending with a photo of Obama on the golf course to emblazon this failed economy on the minds of the short term memory voters currently distracted by shiny objects the MSM and Obama campaign is flashing at them to distract them from the issue of this failed economy.
Rasmussen seems to have Romney mired in about a -1 position. Romney seems “stuck”.
I’d like to see some movement out of that rut....
Lets not cherry pick info to buttress our negativity, shall we.
That’s Newsweek. Who cares about what they think?
That reminds me of someone on FNC yesterday calling MSNBC Maddow the MSM.
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