Very nice analysis of the phony lib polls. But I get nervous when I read this:
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Rasmussen shows the current party affiliation as 37.6% Republicans, 33.3% Democrats and 29.2% Independents.
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Unfortunately Raz is the one pollster that we consider trustworthy and, given his view that the GOP has a 4 point party affiliation advantage over the Dem, it seems very, very unlikely that he is using a Turnout Model that oversamples Democraps.
And Rasmussen has the race essentially dead-even.
You really cannot reconcile the Rasmussen polling with the conclusions of this article. At least I can’t.
Many older southerners registered D decades ago. They vote R. There were only a few thousand Republicans (registered as such) in Louisiana in the late 1980s.
I can’t cite it or link it, but on poll threads I have read that RAS is not using his current Repub/Dem breakdown results or the 2010 turnout in his current polls.
Just what he IS using has been guessed at, or surmised, by people who study these things, and they claim it’s either past models or somewhere in between then and now, and 08 and 2010.
IOW, just because he has alternative info to what the clearly flawed polls are using doesn’t mean the most updated info is baked into his polls. He picks and chooses like a cafeteria menu, they are saying.
His polls obviously are better than the ones showing Obama with a sizable lead.
That’s about the size of what we can claim for RAS.
I do not think that Rasmussen is using R +4 in his polling. The evidence is that Romney is winning independents in the vast majority of Rasmussen polls (as well as other media polls including the biased ones) but still Romney is tied in Rasmussen, slightly ahead, or slightly behind. I think Rasmussen is using D+3 in his pollings.
Rasmussen is using a Rat +2 for his national polls. I’d assume he is also weighting his state and battleground polls in the Democrat’s favor.