Posted on 09/01/2012 2:13:13 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
American pollsters will tell you that the presidential candidate who is in the lead going into the party conventions usually wins. Four polls last week showed a tiny lead for Barack Obama, two for Mitt Romney and one was level; all seven were well within the margin of error.
Another rule is that the Gallup poll taken 100 days before the poll foretells the winner. Only once in the past 60 years – the Bush-Dukakis race of 1988 – did that predictor fail. So, what did Gallup show on the date in question? A dead heat, with both candidates on 46 per cent.
Many Europeans wonder why Mr Obama is not comfortably ahead. Most media, both within the US and abroad, portray him as a serene statesman being shouted at by angry Tea Partiers in 18th-century fancy dress. Viewed solely through the medium of a television screen, he seems bigger than his Republican critics. They are presented as a gaggle of anti-abortionists, stump-toothed mountain men and crackpots hoarding gold against the presumed collapse of paper currencies – an extremist coalition led by a plutocrat. Seen from abroad, it looks like an election between Dr Hibbert and Montgomery Burns.
Then again, we don’t have to live with Mr Obama’s domestic policies. We see him doing what he does best: making speeches, carrying out ceremonial duties and reminding the world, simply by holding office, that America had the spirit to move in one generation from the formalised exclusion of black voters to the election of a mixed-race president.
It was largely on these grounds that I supported Mr Obama four years ago. I was distressed by the Republican Party’s abandonment of free markets for crony capitalism. I thought that Mr Obama’s election would wipe away the stain of segregation....
(Excerpt) Read more at telegraph.co.uk ...
Unless Romney does something really dumb, or unless Obama drops a nuke on Iran, I think Romney wins.
And many Amercians wonder why Mr Romney is not comfortably ahead.
There are no undecideds.
There is no break to the winner in the last week.
There are only people who in effect want to tell the pollsters that it’s none of their business, so they say undecided.
This is the best indicator of the election, which will not be close like the “experts” predict: Do you know any 2008 Obama voters who say they will not vote for him again and have switched over to the other party? Next, do you know any McCain voters who say they are now voting for Obama?
The drift is all in one direction. That is what happened in 1980 when all the pollsters said it was too close to call.
Gallup is a lib shill. If they had it tied, Romney must be in the lead.
Daniel Hannan, UK Member of the European Parliament : "...Many Europeans wonder why Mr Obama is not comfortably ahead."Many Americans wonder why anyone thinks we should care what Eurarabians think.
Many Americans don't particularly care; but we are interested in what others are thinking.
Anything wrong with that?
“We see him doing what he does best: making speeches, carrying out ceremonial duties...”
Holy crap...THAT’S when he’s at his best?
Because his speeches are horrible.
Click on the link and read the rest of the column.
The issues are liberal turnout and conservative refusal to honestly answer polling questions. If Obama can finally find the right theme (war on women, war on minorities, free stuff for his targeted groups of voters), he can do unexpectedly well. If republican voters have been less willing than usual to talk to pollsters at all and to answer truthfully when they do talk (i.e., if it’s hard to admit that you’re voting against the black guy), then Obama will not do as well as expected.
The second sentence explains the first. If euro media presents this caricature of mainstream America to the provincials of euroland then of course the insular masses will have no way of understanding what goes on outside their borders. And to think, these serfs and burghers have the temerity to call US the isolated ones!
There is that.
And there is the natural reticence to maintain you are supporting Obama so as to avoid any racist stigma. That reticence evaporates upon entering the privacy of the voting booth.
Landslide.
I’m just on the edge of my seat to learn what Moochelle will be wearing to the hooplah....and if the Dimwitts will have time to put together a video marking Obama’s selfless acts of compassion when no one was paying attention.
That’s it exactly. The ‘rats are well aware of who their constituency is also, and have been working overtime to expand it through acts of amnesty for illegals, more gimmees for illegals and minorities, dropping work requirements for welfare, “free” healthcare, etc. And demonising whites while at the same time turning a blind eye to the violence being perpetrated upon them. I wonder what they’re going to do when (very soon, I think) the parasites overwhelm the host and it all comes crashing down.
Yes they are awful. Or maybe they don’t even rise to awful, because they’re so vacuous and mediocre. He uses the most Babbitty phrases in a really tortured effort to sound lofty. You can’t sound lofty when you’re insincere.
What’s the problem?
Then, the "goose will be cooked" not just for "Granny", but for EVERY ONE who depends on the government.
IOW, do what the Dems do, scare the crap out of them!
I always thought Hannan was a sharp cookie. However, I severely question the judgment of anyone who supported this empty chair.
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