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Swing states give Obama the edge
The Hill ^ | 07/30/2012 | Niall Stanage

Posted on 07/30/2012 2:41:30 PM PDT by SeekAndFind

President Obama has an overall edge in the 12 decisive battleground states that is measurably greater than his advantage in national polling.

The dynamic, which may reflect a combination of lower swing-state unemployment rates and demographic advantages for the president, is causing stirrings of unease among Republicans, even as they emphasize that it is important not to read too much into the state of the race right now.

“Obama is concentrating his considerable early resources and messaging in the swing states, and it’s had an impact,” said Mark McKinnon, who served as a media adviser for President George W. Bush’s presidential campaigns.

But McKinnon added that Republican candidate Mitt Romney was “raising and saving his money to ensure he won’t be out-punched in the final rounds.” The crucial battleground states number about a dozen: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Taking the polling averages used by Nate Silver in the New York Times, the president is ahead in 10 of the 12 vital states. If those polls were borne out on Election Day, Obama would coast to victory with 332 electoral college votes. Only 270 votes are needed to win the presidency.

Awarding Obama only the states in which he now leads by 3 percentage points or more in the polling averages still sees him safely home.

By that measure, as of last Friday, he would win 8 of the 12 battlegrounds, for a total of 290 electoral votes.

Romney victories in Florida, Missouri, North Carolina and Virginia leaves the Republican marooned on 248 electoral votes.

Strategists including Karl Rove have, in recent months, noted that Romney’s path to victory is challenging one in terms of the electoral map.

Now, Democrats are citing the same argument to justify guarded confidence.

(Excerpt) Read more at thehill.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Front Page News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; bs; dnctalkingpoints; obama; obamapolls; polls; romney; swingstates; zogbyism
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1 posted on 07/30/2012 2:41:38 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

According to the NYTs he’s going to win 10 of 12 swing states - with the worst economy in history. Right.


2 posted on 07/30/2012 2:48:00 PM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: SeekAndFind

I think this election is going to be a real big mess. We could have another election where one candidate wins the popular vote and the other the electoral vote.

I have no idea why the President maintains any support at all. His policies have been ruinous for most people.

God help us.....we need some divine intervention here.


3 posted on 07/30/2012 2:48:41 PM PDT by 3Fingas (Sons and Daughters of Freedom, Committee of Correspondence)
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To: SeekAndFind

Also in today’s New York Times: An authoritative poll that 99.9% of Americans LOVE our Dear Leader Field Marshal Comrade Obama! Another 99.9% fully support the Dear Leader’s Five Year Plan to keep himself in the White House for four more years! And 99.9% of Americans in all 57 states say that Comrade Obama is JUST SWELL!!!

The New York Times: All The Made-Up News That Fits!

Twisting the facts since 1851!


4 posted on 07/30/2012 2:50:17 PM PDT by MeganC (The Cinemark theatre in Aurora, CO is a 'Gun Free Zone'. Spread the word.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Only in America or North Korea could a buffoon that has presided over the lowering of the Nations credit rating, 3.5 years of high unemployment, record debt, destruction of our healthcare system, destruction of our military (open for homos) and constant attacks on Christians be re-elected as President of their Nation.


5 posted on 07/30/2012 2:50:37 PM PDT by SECURE AMERICA (Where can I sign up for the New American Revolution and the Crusades 2012?)
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To: SeekAndFind

The fix is in for the “Swing States”....the FRAUD is already in place to win it for “The Messiah”.....count on it.


6 posted on 07/30/2012 2:50:37 PM PDT by traditional1 (Don't gotsta worry 'bout no mo'gage, don't gotsta worry 'bout no gas; Obama gonna take care o' me!)
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To: nhwingut

Reminds me of when I was a kid and a football game was in halftime but I hadn’t been watching. I’d ask my dad “Who’s winning?” He responded, “Nobody. The game’s not over. You mean to ask ‘who’s ahead?’”

Same thing here. And as things are unfolding, it is looking that if Obama doesn’t get a BIG LEAD soon, he’s gonna get crushed in the second half.


7 posted on 07/30/2012 2:52:04 PM PDT by cuban leaf (Were doomed! Details at eleven.)
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To: 3Fingas
"His policies have been ruinous for most people"

NOT for the targeted favorites:

Fluke-aholics

Sex Deviates

Union scum

Convicted Felons

Illegals

Welfare Queens and the inner-city tribal parasites

8 posted on 07/30/2012 2:53:20 PM PDT by traditional1 (Don't gotsta worry 'bout no mo'gage, don't gotsta worry 'bout no gas; Obama gonna take care o' me!)
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To: 3Fingas

Don’t buy into this crap. They are, in most cases, using polls that sample registered voters; not likely voters.


9 posted on 07/30/2012 2:53:20 PM PDT by LongWayHome
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To: nhwingut

“According to the NYTs he’s going to win 10 of 12 swing states - with the worst economy in history. Right.”


Nothing like persistently high unemployment, a national debt greater than GDP, rising taxes, and a stagnant economy to help an incumbent president win in a landslide. /sarc


10 posted on 07/30/2012 2:53:45 PM PDT by Starboard
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To: traditional1

—The fix is in for the “Swing States”....the FRAUD is already in place to win it for “The Messiah”.....count on it.—

That can only work in a close election.


11 posted on 07/30/2012 2:54:10 PM PDT by cuban leaf (Were doomed! Details at eleven.)
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To: SeekAndFind
“Based upon the most recent job figures, which covered June, only four of the 12 battleground states have unemployment rates that are above — or, in the case of Colorado, identical to — the national average of 8.2 percent. “

and how many of these 8 battleground states that have unemployment numbers which are below the national average also have Republican governors??? and how many of those governors will be hitting the road in their states stumping for obama and his policies versus endorsing romney????

12 posted on 07/30/2012 2:55:45 PM PDT by God luvs America (63.5million pay no federal income tax then vote demoKrat)
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To: cuban leaf

I think that is right.

it is true that obama is ahead...today...in the swing states.

It is also true that Romney is slightly ahead nationally among lv’s. today.

Eventually, that is going to hit these swing states in tsunami fashion.

Probably in October or later.

But we shall see. I hope and believe that what you said is true.


13 posted on 07/30/2012 2:56:22 PM PDT by ConservativeDude
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To: SeekAndFind
Awarding Obama only the states in which he now leads by 3 percentage points or more in the polling averages still sees him safely home.

An incumbent leading by three points or less? If I were Bobo, I would be worried.

14 posted on 07/30/2012 2:57:16 PM PDT by Jeff Chandler (You didn't build that. We built that ... city on rock and roll.)
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To: SeekAndFind

You can bet the ranch that the Democrats know the details of all the voting potential down to the precinct level. Its the Chicago way, the Daley way, the Alinsky way and for certain the Obama way. Again remember, its not who votes but who counts the votes that matters.


15 posted on 07/30/2012 2:57:51 PM PDT by Don Corleone ("Oil the gun..eat the cannoli. Take it to the Mattress.")
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To: traditional1

Oh, yeah, I forgot about all of those very productive members of society.


16 posted on 07/30/2012 2:58:30 PM PDT by 3Fingas (Sons and Daughters of Freedom, Committee of Correspondence)
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; ColdOne; Convert from ECUSA; ...

Alas for Zero, swing states are really teeter-totter states. Okay, so, I didn’t read the thread first. If someone came up with that before I did, I’m going to go offline, y’know, in about five hours.


17 posted on 07/30/2012 2:59:17 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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To: SeekAndFind

The media is just propping up their boy..

late november is when the real polls start to come out for the public.

Blue states are currently swing states..


18 posted on 07/30/2012 3:00:19 PM PDT by cableguymn (For the first time in my life. I fear my country's government.)
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To: SeekAndFind

The media is just propping up their boy..

late OCTOBER is when the real polls start to come out for the public.

Blue states are currently swing states..

(must remember to proof read more than once)


19 posted on 07/30/2012 3:00:54 PM PDT by cableguymn (For the first time in my life. I fear my country's government.)
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To: nhwingut

Isn’t the Hill the new NYT’s?


20 posted on 07/30/2012 3:04:05 PM PDT by cranked
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