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Swing states give Obama the edge
The Hill ^ | 07/30/2012 | Niall Stanage

Posted on 07/30/2012 2:41:30 PM PDT by SeekAndFind

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To: cuban leaf

Excellent analysis and correct. That Obama is this desperate during the summer tells you what you need to know. Who’s paying attention to the race right now. October polls will tell the truth.


61 posted on 07/30/2012 6:03:02 PM PDT by 1010RD (First, Do No Harm)
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To: Alas Babylon!

Dear Jim/John...

I’d give my next born for an edit button :)


62 posted on 07/30/2012 6:05:45 PM PDT by cableguymn (For the first time in my life. I fear my country's government.)
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63 posted on 07/30/2012 6:22:56 PM PDT by StAnDeliver (Reapportionment is your friend. My friend, anyway.)
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2008 + IN, NC, FL, NV, VA, OH = 271EV

5 states to win. 5. Bobo's team has already abandoned Indiana. How many Presidents are re-elected without 10+EV states they held the first time around? What were the results of the bellwether 2010 election?

  • NORTH CAROLINA — GOP Sen. Richard Burr cruised to re-election. Republicans picked up Democratic seat.

  • FLORIDA — Likely VP choice Marco Rubio coasted to Senate win for GOP. Republican Rick Scott won gubernatorial race. GOP picked up four House seats.

  • VIRGINIA — Republicans knocked off three Democratic House members, including Tom Perriello, whom Obama campaigned for late in the race.

  • OHIO — Former GOP Rep. John Kasich defeated Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland; Rob Portman won Senate seat for GOP. Five Democratic U.S. House members were ousted by Republican challengers.

Note none of those 2010 result summaries include any of the historical beating Democrats took at the statehouse level.

Where is Obama's path to victory?

50 posted on 05/08/2012 5:44:46 AM PDT by StAnDeliver (=)

64 posted on 07/30/2012 6:30:13 PM PDT by StAnDeliver (Reapportionment is your friend. My friend, anyway.)
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To: SeekAndFind

I’m skeptical of the numbers, but I’m proceeding as if they were true. Meaning I believe that *nothing* should be taken for granted until we see Obama giving his concession speech on election night.


65 posted on 07/30/2012 6:50:37 PM PDT by DemforBush
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To: nhwingut; P-Marlowe

What matters is Rasmussen’s polling...a reliable pollster who uses only likely voters and says that party affiliation is 35% Republican, 34% Democrat and 30% Independent. You couldn’t ask for a more fair weighting.

Rasmussen says the same thing as this article. Obama leading in the swing states.

I know this is grossly oversimplified, but the bottom line is that Romney has not been striking the right chords with voters despite the bad economy. We might like his ads, his speeches...whatever. They seem to be enabling him to hold his own in the states he is winning.

What they aren’t doing is enabling him to move forward in the states he is losing.

Whatever it is, he hasn’t hit the magic combination yet.


66 posted on 07/30/2012 8:13:17 PM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! Those who truly support our troops pray for their victory!)
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Comment #67 Removed by Moderator

To: nhwingut

“he’s going to win 10 of 12 swing states - with the worst economy in history.”

Here’s why: Bad economy means more folks need bailouts, and who is the bailout king? And whose fault is the bad economy?


68 posted on 07/30/2012 10:22:22 PM PDT by Rennes Templar
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To: SeekAndFind

I had some hope early on 0bama could be defeated, but now I don’t see how it could happen. If 0bama can maintain a 50% approval rating with the piss poor job he has done There is no hope.

Now I think 0bama will win every single state he won in 2008 with a shot to pick up Missouri with strong turnout in KC and STL and possibly GA, KY and WV as well.

We are not the same country as in 1980, 1990 or even 2000. The last 10 years have seena surge in third world Latin immigrants who vote Democrat ny 90%, a surge in fraudulent voters in the big cities and a huge surge in those receiving government benefits. Socialism is the new order in the USA. No Republican, let alone a Conservative, will ever be elected President again.

0bama is the new lord and master. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised if he skirted the Constitution yet again and won a 3rd term in 2016 with overwhelming support.

It’s over people. America has forsaken God and God in turn has forsaken us and is punishing us with 0bama. Sad thing is most people see 0bama as a blessing.


69 posted on 07/31/2012 12:55:30 AM PDT by GR_Jr. (Vote Obama out now.....deal with Romney later.)
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To: GR_Jr.

McCain won 55% of the white vote in 2008..

If Romney gets that number up to 60+%, which I think is reasonable, then all the leftist latino votes wont matter.


70 posted on 07/31/2012 4:30:15 AM PDT by HailReagan78
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To: HailReagan78

Obama’s White Support Is Too Low to Win

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/06/22/obamas_white_support_is_too_low_to_win_2012_romney_white_male_gap_white_women_kuhn_114579.html


71 posted on 07/31/2012 4:32:06 AM PDT by HailReagan78
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To: fatasshick

I don’t have any problem with positive thinking. That’s a fine way to approach most everything in life. I’m not from Missouri, but the proof’s in the pudding, and results are the ultimate test.

Unfortunately, in most things we’ll have to wait and see.

One issue, though, as I see it is that he should NOT allow himself to be losing ground in places like Ohio. There is no reason in the world why he should be losing ground in a place like Ohio other than that he is somehow striking the wrong chords.


72 posted on 07/31/2012 4:50:03 AM PDT by xzins (Retired Army Chaplain and Proud of It! Those who truly support our troops pray for their victory!)
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To: SeekAndFind

Another thread today says just the opposite.


73 posted on 07/31/2012 6:02:13 PM PDT by ridesthemiles
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To: SeekAndFind

All one has to do to see these polls can’t be right is to consider the job approval. Obama is around 46/47%. That means he should take about that pct. of the vote, perhaps a couple of pts. above, but meaning he is at best even. Bush in 2004 was around 49.5 for job approval, and just had a slight advantage in swing states. Common sense tells you Obama can’t be way ahead in swing states; he’d be lucky to be even.

Another way to look at it is if the race is even now nationally, by logic the swing states that Obama won by less than 7 points last time (7 points being his margin of victory nationally) should be favoring Romney. These include Indiana, North Carolina, Florida, Ohio, and Virginia. Flipping these states would take Romney to 266, meaning he would need one more state to win. Colorado was right at around +7.0% for Obama, and Iowa was the next one in line, at around +9.0%.

So the state of the race, worst case, for Romney right now should be, easily Romney: IN, NC; probably Romney: FL, OH, VA; up for grabs: CO, IA

This would agree with the job approval numbers and national polling.


74 posted on 08/01/2012 10:32:47 AM PDT by TomEwall
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