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Swing states give Obama the edge
The Hill ^ | 07/30/2012 | Niall Stanage

Posted on 07/30/2012 2:41:30 PM PDT by SeekAndFind

President Obama has an overall edge in the 12 decisive battleground states that is measurably greater than his advantage in national polling.

The dynamic, which may reflect a combination of lower swing-state unemployment rates and demographic advantages for the president, is causing stirrings of unease among Republicans, even as they emphasize that it is important not to read too much into the state of the race right now.

“Obama is concentrating his considerable early resources and messaging in the swing states, and it’s had an impact,” said Mark McKinnon, who served as a media adviser for President George W. Bush’s presidential campaigns.

But McKinnon added that Republican candidate Mitt Romney was “raising and saving his money to ensure he won’t be out-punched in the final rounds.” The crucial battleground states number about a dozen: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Taking the polling averages used by Nate Silver in the New York Times, the president is ahead in 10 of the 12 vital states. If those polls were borne out on Election Day, Obama would coast to victory with 332 electoral college votes. Only 270 votes are needed to win the presidency.

Awarding Obama only the states in which he now leads by 3 percentage points or more in the polling averages still sees him safely home.

By that measure, as of last Friday, he would win 8 of the 12 battlegrounds, for a total of 290 electoral votes.

Romney victories in Florida, Missouri, North Carolina and Virginia leaves the Republican marooned on 248 electoral votes.

Strategists including Karl Rove have, in recent months, noted that Romney’s path to victory is challenging one in terms of the electoral map.

Now, Democrats are citing the same argument to justify guarded confidence.

(Excerpt) Read more at thehill.com ...


TOPICS: Culture/Society; Front Page News; Politics/Elections
KEYWORDS: 2012polls; bs; dnctalkingpoints; obama; obamapolls; polls; romney; swingstates; zogbyism
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1 posted on 07/30/2012 2:41:38 PM PDT by SeekAndFind
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To: SeekAndFind

According to the NYTs he’s going to win 10 of 12 swing states - with the worst economy in history. Right.


2 posted on 07/30/2012 2:48:00 PM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: SeekAndFind

I think this election is going to be a real big mess. We could have another election where one candidate wins the popular vote and the other the electoral vote.

I have no idea why the President maintains any support at all. His policies have been ruinous for most people.

God help us.....we need some divine intervention here.


3 posted on 07/30/2012 2:48:41 PM PDT by 3Fingas (Sons and Daughters of Freedom, Committee of Correspondence)
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To: SeekAndFind

Also in today’s New York Times: An authoritative poll that 99.9% of Americans LOVE our Dear Leader Field Marshal Comrade Obama! Another 99.9% fully support the Dear Leader’s Five Year Plan to keep himself in the White House for four more years! And 99.9% of Americans in all 57 states say that Comrade Obama is JUST SWELL!!!

The New York Times: All The Made-Up News That Fits!

Twisting the facts since 1851!


4 posted on 07/30/2012 2:50:17 PM PDT by MeganC (The Cinemark theatre in Aurora, CO is a 'Gun Free Zone'. Spread the word.)
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To: SeekAndFind

Only in America or North Korea could a buffoon that has presided over the lowering of the Nations credit rating, 3.5 years of high unemployment, record debt, destruction of our healthcare system, destruction of our military (open for homos) and constant attacks on Christians be re-elected as President of their Nation.


5 posted on 07/30/2012 2:50:37 PM PDT by SECURE AMERICA (Where can I sign up for the New American Revolution and the Crusades 2012?)
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To: SeekAndFind

The fix is in for the “Swing States”....the FRAUD is already in place to win it for “The Messiah”.....count on it.


6 posted on 07/30/2012 2:50:37 PM PDT by traditional1 (Don't gotsta worry 'bout no mo'gage, don't gotsta worry 'bout no gas; Obama gonna take care o' me!)
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To: nhwingut

Reminds me of when I was a kid and a football game was in halftime but I hadn’t been watching. I’d ask my dad “Who’s winning?” He responded, “Nobody. The game’s not over. You mean to ask ‘who’s ahead?’”

Same thing here. And as things are unfolding, it is looking that if Obama doesn’t get a BIG LEAD soon, he’s gonna get crushed in the second half.


7 posted on 07/30/2012 2:52:04 PM PDT by cuban leaf (Were doomed! Details at eleven.)
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To: 3Fingas
"His policies have been ruinous for most people"

NOT for the targeted favorites:

Fluke-aholics

Sex Deviates

Union scum

Convicted Felons

Illegals

Welfare Queens and the inner-city tribal parasites

8 posted on 07/30/2012 2:53:20 PM PDT by traditional1 (Don't gotsta worry 'bout no mo'gage, don't gotsta worry 'bout no gas; Obama gonna take care o' me!)
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To: 3Fingas

Don’t buy into this crap. They are, in most cases, using polls that sample registered voters; not likely voters.


9 posted on 07/30/2012 2:53:20 PM PDT by LongWayHome
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To: nhwingut

“According to the NYTs he’s going to win 10 of 12 swing states - with the worst economy in history. Right.”


Nothing like persistently high unemployment, a national debt greater than GDP, rising taxes, and a stagnant economy to help an incumbent president win in a landslide. /sarc


10 posted on 07/30/2012 2:53:45 PM PDT by Starboard
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To: traditional1

—The fix is in for the “Swing States”....the FRAUD is already in place to win it for “The Messiah”.....count on it.—

That can only work in a close election.


11 posted on 07/30/2012 2:54:10 PM PDT by cuban leaf (Were doomed! Details at eleven.)
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To: SeekAndFind
“Based upon the most recent job figures, which covered June, only four of the 12 battleground states have unemployment rates that are above — or, in the case of Colorado, identical to — the national average of 8.2 percent. “

and how many of these 8 battleground states that have unemployment numbers which are below the national average also have Republican governors??? and how many of those governors will be hitting the road in their states stumping for obama and his policies versus endorsing romney????

12 posted on 07/30/2012 2:55:45 PM PDT by God luvs America (63.5million pay no federal income tax then vote demoKrat)
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To: cuban leaf

I think that is right.

it is true that obama is ahead...today...in the swing states.

It is also true that Romney is slightly ahead nationally among lv’s. today.

Eventually, that is going to hit these swing states in tsunami fashion.

Probably in October or later.

But we shall see. I hope and believe that what you said is true.


13 posted on 07/30/2012 2:56:22 PM PDT by ConservativeDude
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To: SeekAndFind
Awarding Obama only the states in which he now leads by 3 percentage points or more in the polling averages still sees him safely home.

An incumbent leading by three points or less? If I were Bobo, I would be worried.

14 posted on 07/30/2012 2:57:16 PM PDT by Jeff Chandler (You didn't build that. We built that ... city on rock and roll.)
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To: SeekAndFind

You can bet the ranch that the Democrats know the details of all the voting potential down to the precinct level. Its the Chicago way, the Daley way, the Alinsky way and for certain the Obama way. Again remember, its not who votes but who counts the votes that matters.


15 posted on 07/30/2012 2:57:51 PM PDT by Don Corleone ("Oil the gun..eat the cannoli. Take it to the Mattress.")
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To: traditional1

Oh, yeah, I forgot about all of those very productive members of society.


16 posted on 07/30/2012 2:58:30 PM PDT by 3Fingas (Sons and Daughters of Freedom, Committee of Correspondence)
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To: AdmSmith; AnonymousConservative; Berosus; bigheadfred; Bockscar; ColdOne; Convert from ECUSA; ...

Alas for Zero, swing states are really teeter-totter states. Okay, so, I didn’t read the thread first. If someone came up with that before I did, I’m going to go offline, y’know, in about five hours.


17 posted on 07/30/2012 2:59:17 PM PDT by SunkenCiv (https://secure.freerepublic.com/donate/)
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To: SeekAndFind

The media is just propping up their boy..

late november is when the real polls start to come out for the public.

Blue states are currently swing states..


18 posted on 07/30/2012 3:00:19 PM PDT by cableguymn (For the first time in my life. I fear my country's government.)
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To: SeekAndFind

The media is just propping up their boy..

late OCTOBER is when the real polls start to come out for the public.

Blue states are currently swing states..

(must remember to proof read more than once)


19 posted on 07/30/2012 3:00:54 PM PDT by cableguymn (For the first time in my life. I fear my country's government.)
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To: nhwingut

Isn’t the Hill the new NYT’s?


20 posted on 07/30/2012 3:04:05 PM PDT by cranked
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To: 3Fingas
“We could have another election where one candidate wins the popular vote and the other the electoral vote.”

I have to disagree on that one. I think Romney will beat Lil Barry in more states but Lil Barry will win in the states with more electoral votes. The population centers, hence more electoral votes. Take a look at the electoral map at Real Clear Politics. Color 6 -10 of the gray states blue and Obama wins. This country will look like a sea of red with a large blue border. Of course if it goes the other, we will have rioting in most of the large cities.

21 posted on 07/30/2012 3:04:37 PM PDT by Tupelo (TeaPartier ..... but no longer a Republican)
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To: cableguymn

>> must remember to proof read more than once

Well, you were sort of right the first time... the MOST important poll IS taken in November. Early November, not late, but you got the month right. :-)


22 posted on 07/30/2012 3:08:38 PM PDT by Nervous Tick (Love the cult, respect the leader, but I simply can't drink the koolaid and die.)
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To: SeekAndFind

The state polls are all relying on 2008 turnouts/party id.

It’s statistically impossible for Romney to be up 3-4 nationally and down 8 in a state like Ohio.


23 posted on 07/30/2012 3:09:22 PM PDT by nhwingut (Sarah Palin 12... No One Else)
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To: SeekAndFind; All

Wishful thinking from Niall Stanage.

Evidently, Stanage has forgotten November of 2010. And that Obama has been spending far more (War on Women, Bain, “You Didn’t Build That!”) than he’s been taking in on his anemic, cross country fund raisers on the tax payer’s dime. Which is why Senate Dems will scream for another QE (III or IV, I forget) around Labor Day. To pay off Obama’s foreign, union and special interest cronies.

If the economy keeps the way it is or drops between now and November. Obama will lose in a landslide. If not, Obama will still lose. Badly!


24 posted on 07/30/2012 3:09:41 PM PDT by Jack Deth (Knight Errant and Resident FReeper Kitty Poem /Haiku Guy)
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To: SeekAndFind

Since Walker turned Wisconsin around I don’t see Odungo taking Wisconsin.


25 posted on 07/30/2012 3:10:01 PM PDT by Doogle ((USAF.68-73..8th TFW Ubon Thailand..never store a threat you should have eliminated))
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To: nhwingut

Yup....these polls are cooked. It’s obvious.


26 posted on 07/30/2012 3:10:50 PM PDT by LongWayHome
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To: nhwingut

Current polling, from reputable firms, only give Romney an edge in Florida, Missouri, and a scant one in North Carolina from that list of twelve. They are not enough.


27 posted on 07/30/2012 3:12:35 PM PDT by Ingtar ("As the light begins to fade in the city on the hill")
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To: Tupelo

Either way, we might still require divine intervention.


28 posted on 07/30/2012 3:12:35 PM PDT by 3Fingas (Sons and Daughters of Freedom, Committee of Correspondence)
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To: SeekAndFind

I wish we had a better candidate. Still, the only poll that matters will take place November 6.


29 posted on 07/30/2012 3:17:44 PM PDT by ilovesarah2012
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To: SeekAndFind

The key to the election is, as is well known, the independents. The rule for an election is that the undecided will break for the challenger if the incumbent cannot make the case for his/her election. Obama has yet to exceed 50% in any poll that I have seen recently. I am watching Fox’s Special Report right now and they have Obama at 280. I do not believe it and instead believe that Obama is losing it.


30 posted on 07/30/2012 3:17:57 PM PDT by SES1066 (Government is NOT the reason for my existence!)
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To: SeekAndFind

And where is Romney? In Poland. Three months before the election. This guy really needs to step up the campaign.


31 posted on 07/30/2012 3:20:02 PM PDT by CountryClassSF
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To: Tupelo

It is still early, and once the olympics is done, then the conventions, Romney will begin to pull ahead.


32 posted on 07/30/2012 3:20:01 PM PDT by Biggirl ("Jesus talked to us as individuals"-Jim Vicevich/Thanks JimV!)
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To: SeekAndFind
A couple weeks ago Romney was ahead in swing states.

Probably that was among likely voters which is a more accurate poll.

33 posted on 07/30/2012 3:23:51 PM PDT by what's up
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To: Ingtar

Assuming that Romney can hold Colorado, it will come down to Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Florida, Virginia, and Ohio. If he can take Florida, Romney will need to take either Pennsylvania or any two of Ohio, Virginia and Wisconisin. If I were a resident of any of these states, I wouldn’t watch television or listen to the radio between Labor Day and Election Day. Inundation is not too strong a term to describe what will happen in these states during that period of time.


34 posted on 07/30/2012 3:29:33 PM PDT by p. henry
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To: Ingtar

These polls, by & large, are using 2008 turnout figures. Different world in 2012.


35 posted on 07/30/2012 3:33:20 PM PDT by LongWayHome
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To: CountryClassSF

Romney could be tap dancing naked in Times Square and the majority of voters would never know it, because they are not paying attention. Most don’t even bother to think about it until a couple of weeks before the election.


36 posted on 07/30/2012 3:36:23 PM PDT by SuziQ
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To: SeekAndFind

10 out of 12 Swinger states?


37 posted on 07/30/2012 3:36:59 PM PDT by Leep (Enemy of the Statist)
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To: SeekAndFind
But McKinnon added that Republican candidate Mitt Romney was “raising and saving his money to ensure he won’t be out-punched in the final rounds.” The crucial battleground states number about a dozen: Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia and Wisconsin.

Romney takes Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Ohio, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Virginia, and Wisconsin. That puts it at 295-243.

38 posted on 07/30/2012 3:37:16 PM PDT by Hoodat ("As for God, His way is perfect" - Psalm 18:30)
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To: SeekAndFind

I do not normally turn to profanity but......

WTF is wrong with this country???

Too many takers, not enough makers!!


39 posted on 07/30/2012 3:38:45 PM PDT by KosmicKitty (WARNING: Hormonally crazed woman ahead!!)
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To: SuziQ

However,Obama could pick his nose and flick it at the camera. The MSM would report it as sheer genius.


40 posted on 07/30/2012 3:39:13 PM PDT by Leep (Enemy of the Statist)
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To: SeekAndFind

what a load of Barbra Streisand


41 posted on 07/30/2012 3:59:45 PM PDT by Vaquero (Don't pick a fight with an old guy. If he is too old to fight, he'll just kill you.)
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To: Don Corleone

“You can bet the ranch that the Democrats know the details of all the voting potential down to the precinct level. Its the Chicago way, the Daley way, the Alinsky way and for certain the Obama way. Again remember, its not who votes but who counts the votes that matters.”

Yep.

Just like they did in Wisconsin....Oh wait.


42 posted on 07/30/2012 4:01:38 PM PDT by VanDeKoik
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To: nhwingut

Even in this bad economy, the “pain” felt by it is far less than previous years, because the handouts from the government have smashed records. People are getting used to those handouts and will resist attempts to roll them back.

That`s the huge disadvantage for Romney... he can`t control the narrative... 0bama can.


43 posted on 07/30/2012 4:03:26 PM PDT by ScottinVA (Buying Drain-O requires photo I.D... yet voting doesn't???)
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To: Leep
However,Obama could pick his nose and flick it at the camera. The MSM would report it as sheer genius.

thats the fecal fly’s job


44 posted on 07/30/2012 4:05:09 PM PDT by Vaquero (Don't pick a fight with an old guy. If he is too old to fight, he'll just kill you.)
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To: 3Fingas
I have no idea why the President maintains any support at all.

I do

Over half of the voting public are drooling imbeciles who the Founders never intended to enfranchise.

The Founders didn't put a right to vote in the Constitution for a reason.

A couple of amendments later, and presto, we are now enslaved by the Federal apparatus in DC.

Washingtonians put on a circus every election cycle fighting over which bunch of degenerate con men, thieves, and liars get to control and redistribute the money extorted from the productive class by the IRS.

45 posted on 07/30/2012 4:10:51 PM PDT by Rome2000 (WILLARD ROMNEY -- MORMON MELCHIDEZEK BISHOP -HIS FAMILY HAS AVOIDED MILITARY SERVICE FOR GENERATIONS)
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To: cableguymn
late november is when the real polls start to come out for the public.

By late November it will all be over. Election day is November 6th.

46 posted on 07/30/2012 4:13:45 PM PDT by Alas Babylon!
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To: nhwingut

5 trillion buys a Lot of Votes,I am Afraid they are right


47 posted on 07/30/2012 4:14:09 PM PDT by ballplayer
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To: SeekAndFind
I'd like to see the polling samples they're using to get these numbers. My money says they're oversampling Dems... again.

FWIW, I don't think Obama believes these numbers either. Look at the way he's campaigning... does he act like a candidate who's confident that he's going to win?

48 posted on 07/30/2012 4:15:15 PM PDT by Random_User_250
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To: 3Fingas; xzins
I have no idea why the President maintains any support at all. His policies have been ruinous for most people.

80% of Americans still have jobs. Of the 20% who are unemployed, most of them are grateful to Obama for giving them all extended Unemployment, welfare, food stamps, free health care and promises of a continued gravy train of "free" benefits paid by the 80% who are working and the future earnings of our children and grandchildren.

The fact of the matter is that for most of the underemployed and unemployed, things have not really been that disasterous, not like it was in the 1930's. Obama's Trillion Dollar Deficits will buy him a lot of votes from people who appreciate getting something for nothing.

Never underestimate the ignorance of the average American Idol fan.

49 posted on 07/30/2012 4:15:28 PM PDT by P-Marlowe (There can be no Victory without a fight and no battle without wounds.)
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To: Alas Babylon!

see post 47


50 posted on 07/30/2012 4:23:52 PM PDT by cableguymn (For the first time in my life. I fear my country's government.)
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