Posted on 04/02/2012 9:25:34 AM PDT by Cincinatus' Wife
Mitt Romney continues racking up delegates — 568 thus far, about half of the 1,144 needed to clinch the Republican nomination. He continues racking up endorsements, with establishment figures like George H.W. Bush and tea party favorites Marco Rubio and Paul Ryan giving him their support last week. And with a huge financial and organizational advantage over his three remaining GOP competitors, he should continue to accumulate delegates where they are awarded proportionally by district or state, even when he loses.
By the time the Texas primary rolls around on May 29, there’s a good chance he’ll have the finish line in sight — that is, assuming Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum haven’t dropped out of the race, in which case he’ll have the nomination sealed. With reports of Romney’s secret meeting with Gingrich, and with a convincing win in Wisconsin on Tuesday, that could be a distinct possibility.
But if Santorum scores some surprise victories, or if a Gingrich withdrawal strengthens his campaign, then Texas could still have a role to play. And because of the drawn-out fight over redistricting, there are a couple of wrinkles to the Texas delegate math.
First, delegates to district conventions are normally selected in precinct conventions that take place on primary day. Then delegates for the state convention are selected at the district conventions, which normally take place on the third Saturday after the primary election.
But because of this year’s truncated schedule, there’s no time to go through this process between the May 29 primary and the GOP state convention that begins on June 7.
This year, special rules are in effect. Precinct conventions are optional, and may take place on the same day as the district conventions, which county executives can schedule on April 14 or 21. Bexar County opted to hold precinct conventions and district conventions in succession on the 14th.
How many Republicans realize this? The Republican Party of Bexar County sent out information to its email list last month. Yet as of today, less than two weeks before the conventions, its website doesn’t readily provide information about when and where they will take place.
Not surprisingly, well-organized and dedicated Ron Paul supporters know. And they are organizing to show up in force at the April conventions. That could give Paul outsized influence at the GOP national convention in August.
Texas’ 155 delegates — 10 percent of the delegates yet to be awarded — are determined proportionally based on the statewide vote, which favors Romney. Even in a loss, he’s likely to gather a sizable chunk of delegates in Texas.
But here’s the second wrinkle. If Romney doesn’t have the delegates to secure the nomination on the first ballot, the State Republican Executive Committee voted to release delegates on the second ballot. Given Romney’s campaign friendship with Paul, a large group of Paul supporters in the Texas delegation could work in his favor. In the event of a contested convention, Paul might tell them to support Romney. Or not, in which case who knows what might happen.
After last week, it looks less likely that there will be a contested convention in Tampa. If Romney can’t sew things up here on May 29, he’ll have another chance to do so a week later when a slew of primaries that ought to be favorable to him will take place, including the one in delegate-rich California. If he fails to do so, if he stumbles, if his campaign has more Etch A Sketch moments, then Texas’ weird delegate issues could complicate an already messy convention.
How many Republicans realize this? The Republican Party of Bexar County sent out information to its email list last month. Yet as of today, less than two weeks before the conventions, its website doesn’t readily provide information about when and where they will take place.
Not surprisingly, well-organized and dedicated Ron Paul supporters know. And they are organizing to show up in force at the April conventions. That could give Paul outsized influence at the GOP national convention in August....
I don't think the people/sites tracking all these rules and dates knows about this:
Isn't that special?
If you can't appreciate the pure beauty of the violin after hearing this, something's wrong with your ears.
Or you can get raw with these strings.
How about this gamechanger from America's Got Talent (which they SHOULD have won).
And finally, this, dedicated to the one and only rdb2, whose eyes are growing dim.
Either way, the violin is sweet yet LETHAL.
Do it!
They’re making up the “rules” as they go.
Doesn’t really matter.
Texas is a ABO(Anyone But Obama) state.
Might come as a shock, but a lot of us care who we nominate.
“Might come as a shock, but a lot of us care who we nominate.”
Ok, I’ll bite: would you vote then for Obama over the eventual GOP nominee?
And that, my friend is the question.
We're in Primary season and THAT is the question before us.
If we care who the nominee is, we aren’t the type to vote for Obama over the nominee.
That’s how simple THAT is.
You’re claiming it’s senseless to care.
Riiiiiiiiiiiiight...
It never makes any difference who we nominate against the Democrat.
It could be Gerald Ford (substitute Dole, George HW Bush, McCain, Romney) OR Ronald Reagan.
Who cares?
You have not proved ABO to be incorrect for the general election.
Whoever the nominee is, Texas will vote for him/her. Period.
The other question is who do we wish as the nominee. We all have positions on that one. It doesn’t make any difference who the nominee is. Texas will vote for him due to ABO.
How did I mistate what I originally said in posting? If you say it was I had a didn’t-care attitude on the primary, you are mistaken.
I said it didn’t matter as the end game is to defeat the socialist.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.