Free Republic

So if Donald Trump proved the political universe wrong and won the Republican presidential nomination, he would be creamed by Hillary Clinton, correct? A new survey of likely voters might at least raise momentary dyspepsia for Democrats since it suggests why it wouldn't be a cakewalk. The survey by Washington-based Mercury Analytics is a combination online questionnaire and "dial-test" of Trump's first big campaign ad among 916 self-proclaimed "likely voters" (this video shows the ad and the dial test results). It took place primarily Wednesday and Thursday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent. Nearly...

This is a must-read Sean Trende column on why Obama’s bandwagon strategy has demanded that he remain in the lead at every point in the campaign. I’ve been saying for months now that Obama’s fundraising in particular – and even moreso, his ability to deter Romney from raising money from business – was hugely dependent on convincing business interests that Obama’s regulators would still be calling the shots after the election and they should not feel safe about going all-in to be rid of him. This is also why Obama’s team has gone nuclear in its attacks on individual polls...

Newt Gingrich hinted he may withdraw from the presidential race if he has a poor showing in the Delaware primary Tuesday – "I think we need to take a deep look at what we are doing...We will be in North Carolina tomorrow night and we will look and see what the results are." "This has been a good opportunity for us, we have been here seeing a lot of people,” Gingrich said. “We have got really positive responses and I would hope we would do well here – either carry it or come very, very close." ..."Romney is clearly the...

(NEW YORK) -- Rick Santorum said Monday night there is “no question Barack Obama has to be defeated,” but did not say he would back presumptive nominee Mitt Romney, instead revealing he had only spoken to Newt Gingrich, not Romney yet. “As far as going with a particular presidential candidate right now -- I mean -- had a chance to talk to Newt, I haven’t had a chance yet to talk to Gov. Romney,” Santorum said on a conference call. “But we’ll be talking to both of them and we are going to go out and deal with who we...

RICHARDSON (CBSDFW) – Former U.S. House Speaker Newt Gingrich says he’s not leaving the Presidential race anytime soon. “I’m the tortoise in this race,” Gingrich says. “I’ll just keep coming forward and I’m still here.” Before 75 supporters in a packed Richardson restaurant along Central Expressway Monday afternoon, Gingrich sounded upbeat. He told the town hall meeting, “I certainly felt a lot more encouraged by donors than discouraged by the elite media.” But he’s facing an uphill climb. Jack Fink: “Mitt Romney is on his way to the nomination, mathematically you can’t win, so what’s your rationale for staying in...

The video says it all. Texas is Rising for Newt Grinrich.

Mitt Romney continues racking up delegates — 568 thus far, about half of the 1,144 needed to clinch the Republican nomination. He continues racking up endorsements, with establishment figures like George H.W. Bush and tea party favorites Marco Rubio and Paul Ryan giving him their support last week. And with a huge financial and organizational advantage over his three remaining GOP competitors, he should continue to accumulate delegates where they are awarded proportionally by district or state, even when he loses. By the time the Texas primary rolls around on May 29, there’s a good chance he’ll have the finish...

Newt Gingrich insisted Monday that he would continue in the fight for the Republican presidential nomination until Mitt Romney secured the 1,144 delegates necessary to clinch the nomination, saying 'a whole new conversation' would occur if the frontrunner was also unable to hit the necessary total. "I think the morning that he gets 1,144 that are locked down, then I think he claim to be the nominee. But until then, he's not the nominee," Gingrich said on CNN. "Remember, I'm from Atlanta, where we were ahead by 10.5 games last year with only 28 games to go, and the Cardinals...

For the first time in a generation, Republicans are preparing for the possibility that their presidential nomination could be decided at their national convention rather than on the campaign trail, a prospect that would upend one of the rituals of modern politics. .....as Romney struggles to win the hearts of conservative voters and hold off a challenge from Rick Santorum, party leaders, activists and the campaigns are for the first time taking seriously the possibility that neither he nor anyone else will get to that total. In that case, the nomination would be decided by the more than 2,200 delegates...

Mitt Romney talks to FOX News' Megyn Kelly about attracting support from conservative voters. "When you ask in these prior elections, 'who as conservatives did you vote?,' I won the conservative vote. Some who are very conservative may not yet be in my camp, but they will be when I become the nominee, when I face Barack Obama. Because again, what the nation wants is someone who understands the economy, not, if you will, an economy lightweight. I mean, Senator Santorum is a nice guy but he does not understand how the economy works. He's never had a job in...

In state after state, evangelicals have sent Mitt Romney a clear message: We’re just not that into you. Some evangelicals do pull the lever for Romney. But consistently there is a wide gap between Romney’s support among evangelicals and his support among other groups. On average, there is a 19-point difference between Romney’s support among non-evangelicals and his support among evangelicals in Republican primaries, according to ABC News’s survey of primary states with exit- or entrance-polling data available. That’s a sizeable gap — and one that has complicated Romney’s path to the nomination. Evangelical leaders are dismissive of the notion...

RUSH: ...Back on January 23rd, there was a lot of panic on the Republican side, 'cause Romney just wasn't wrapping this up. -snip- RUSH ARCHIVE: Why is it that a long primary campaign is going to hurt the Republican nominee? If the result of a long campaign is that this party finally figures out that the only way they got to win this is conservatism, it's a win-win. Let it play out! Don't panic! RUSH: ... Still, the most delegates yesterday were won by Mitt Romney. He added six delegates to his lead. The delegates count today: Romney has 495....

Confident of victory in the Florida primaries tomorrow but afraid it might not be big enough to derail challenger Newt Gingrich, Mitt Romney's team is moving to play down talk he will win by 10 points or more. "The win will wind up big, but we're not going to get double digits," said a key advisor. Several polls today have Romney's lead increasing to a Real Clear Politics average of 12 percent. Only three of nine of the most recent polls have Romney's lead in single numbers, with the highest being a 20 point lead in a Suffolk University poll...

After many months of getting a pass, it seems that the other candidates are willing to finally start hitting Governor Mitt Romney on his major weakness: The Massachusetts Health Care Insurance Reform Law. The bill, known by most as Romneycare, is (as we all have been saying for many moons) the basis for the much maligned Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, otherwise affectionately known as Obamacare. I’ve been in endless debates and discussions with Romney supporters and surrogates for some time now as they paint a beautiful picture of the ultimate State’s Rights battle. They claim that Romneycare vs...

MIAMI — Facing the unthinkable here just seven days ago — a second loss in a row to Newt Gingrich — Mitt Romney’s campaign team hatched a two-part plan to win in Florida: make Newt mad and Mitt meaner. [snip] If Mr. Romney does win here on Tuesday, it will have been through a blistering and unrelenting series of attacks. His campaign has pressed everything at its disposal into service to eviscerate Mr. Gingrich, painting him as an erratic, unreliable Washington insider in mailings and television advertisements, at two critical debates here (where his team made sure Mr. Romney had...

FOX News calls it for NEWT!! WOO HOO!!