Everything you heard last night was bull - professional political pundit bull crap

Townhall ^ | January 4, 2012 | Erick Erickson

[Cincinatus' Wife]

As you wake up this morning, Rick Santorum​ only lost to Mitt Romney​ by 8 votes. Santorum spent about a dollar per vote and Romney spent hundreds of dollars for his votes. Rick Santorum substantially over performed and while the Romney camp wants you to believe a win is a win, Romney got less votes in 2012 than he got in 2008. In addition, everything you heard last night from the professional class of political pundit was bull crap.

The political press and pundits have gotten so used to standard narratives that they cannot deviate from the mean even when it becomes grossly dislocated from reality.

First, the reason the GOP is having such a chaotic primary fight has nothing to do with the tea party. Frankly, it has nothing to do with the bulk of the GOP not wanting Romney.

The reason this Republican primary season is so chaotic is because George W. Bush failed to have a successor. Had President Bush had a Vice President to run for President, Bush would have undoubtedly made different policy decisions, but even aside from that there would have been an ascertainable front runner coming from the Bush administration to win or lose.

Because there was not such a thing and because the GOP likes orderly processes, we had to go back to 2000 and dredge up John McCain​.

The Republican field was unable to reboot because we had no logical successor coming out of the White House to either win or lose. We went back to McCain and have had to work our way back through unresolved issues from 2000. And now, when the field should be rebooted, we’re having to deal with Mitt Romney who should have been displaced by an heir in 2008 and instead, because the 2008 season did not reboot the crop of candidates, is now the guy three quarters of the GOP does not want who is about to be the nominee.

Our process is chaotic because Bush left us no heir to win or to be rejected through a cathartic process of locking in gains or moving on from Bush. Yes, this one is Bush’s fault. On the bright side, the Democrats will have the same problem in 2016 unless Obama ditches Biden now for Hillary.

But that’s not the only issue the media has failed to pay attention to. There was some serious bull crap coming out of reporters’ mouths last night that is flat out false.

For starters, the media would have you believe that the 123,000 people who turned out for the Hawkeye Caucii was a record. This is simply not true except superficially. If you take out the non-Republicans who came into the caucuses last night for Ron Paul​, the Republican turn out was less than 2008 — even considering the ratio of independents to Republicans who turned out in 2008.

At its best, this turn out does not signal core enthusiasm with the field as it is presently constituted and perhaps signals that an alternative could still jump in. Considering “winner takes all” races do not come until April, someone coming out now could campaign and build momentum to the winner takes all states.

Additionally, anyone who says “this was a victory for retail politics” should be beaten with an Iowan cattle prod. Rick Santorum’s “victory” — and it was a victory in every sense but those 8 votes — was because he has run one of the most God awful disastrous retail campaign operations of any candidate with enough popularity to get on the debate stage.

Santorum visited all 99 Iowan counties, some of them repeatedly. His “successful” campaign never, ever caught on with Iowa voters despite all that retail time in Iowa. It only became successful when ever single other candidate had been vetted and imploded and there was absolutely no other person familiar to the voters who could stand as the non-Romney candidate.

Had Santorum run a successful retail campaign and caught fire on his own accord, he’d have been vetted by now and probably also succumbed to the Romney machine. His campaign was not successful, it’s just all the others sucked so bad.

And now that leads me to Bachmann and Perry. Bachmann, the Iowa native, won not a single county. Even Rick Perry​ won two counties. Bachmann must drop out. Frankly, it makes sense for Perry to do so as well except for one issue.

If Rick Perry drops out of the race it will be the ultimate failure of the tea party movement to see the race come down to two or three big government conservatives. Romney and Santorum both hide behind compassionate conservatism to expand the state to suit their purposes. Only Rick Perry has run a campaign to make Washington “as inconsequential to our lives as possible.”

If I were Perry, I’d wake up tomorrow, say I refuse to surrender the Republican Party into the hands of big government conservatives after all the gains the tea party has made, and then announce I’m firing all my political staffers and communications staffers and ask South Carolina to help me reboot to victory. Make it an Alamo stand and, if like at the Alamo Perry goes down, perhaps there’ll at least be a rallying cry for small government conservatism left over.

That’s just me. Perry’s policy people have been phenomenal. The comms staff and political staff so badly bungled this that Rick Perry just suffered the first political loss of his career.

Don’t count on it happening though.

As you wake up this morning, the tea party has failed because it has surrendered itself into the hands of Romney, Santorum, or Gingrich — all of whom would use government to suit allegedly conservative ends, which is not conservative in and of itself. But by God Mitt Romney may now get the political beating everyone has been expecting him to get. Newt Gingrich​ has nothing left to lose. He can go Newtlear against the guy he sees as having destroyed him. Newt Gingrich can unleash unmitigated hell against MItt Romney and just like the attacks on Newt were true, they’ll all be true about MItt Romney too.

[Cincinatus' Wife]

Gov. Rick Perry has 2 debates scheduled in NH, a primary in SC and a lot of strong supporters, ready, willing and eager for him to continue the fight.

[Mr. K]

Draft Dick Cheney Now~!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Crichton]

Perry should stay in the race. The contest could drag on for months but not if all the candidates drop out.

[US Navy Vet]

GIVE IN UP “Perrywinkle” Rick’s DONE. GO BACK TO TEXAS!

[dirtboy]

Gov. Rick Perry has 2 debates scheduled in NH, a primary in SC

And he's back in Texas.

Deal with it.

[frogjerk]

First, the reason the GOP is having such a chaotic primary fight has nothing to do with the tea party. Frankly, it has nothing to do with the bulk of the GOP not wanting Romney

Totally clueless comment.

[uncbob]

. But by God Mitt Romney may now get the political beating everyone has been expecting him to get. Newt Gingrich​ has nothing left to lose. He can go Newtlear against the guy he sees as having destroyed him. Newt Gingrich can unleash unmitigated hell against MItt Romney and just like the attacks on Newt were true, they’ll all be true about MItt Romney too.

Sure hope so
Negative campaigning is not a problem as long as the facts are there

In fact it should be done to show what a candidate really stands for ( or has no principles)

Most GOP voters don't really know Romney's record

Just hope there is enough $$$ to but the TV and newspaper ads

[TADSLOS]

Typical Perry cult response. When Perry gets body slammed, it’s cry, whine and deflect the blame. Perry lost for the same reason that all but the most clueless, naive and obtuse hang up on telemarketers.

[Leep]

The reason it was bull crap is Rick Perry didn’t win?

[Cincinatus' Wife]

Totally clueless comment.

That's a shocking comment.

The anti-Romney candidate swapping phenomenon (with strings pulled by the MSM) that we're witnessing (many engaging in) is because Republicans have lost confidence. Always second guessing and falling for the next best "salesman," who has some "conservatism" to sell.

Too bad the one with the real record and intention to make D.C. inconsequential as possible in our lives wasn't backed strongly by conservatives when the Romney media went after him.

It would seem Erick Erickson is correct. As a party we have not come to our senses.

Dare I mention Ron Paul's ability to carve out 22% of the Iowa vote? It's nut job time.

[Yankee]

Gov. Rick Perry has 2 debates scheduled in NH, a primary in SC

Rick Perry Campaign Announcement

[dirtboy]

This one was a head-scratcher as well:

For starters, the media would have you believe that the 123,000 people who turned out for the Hawkeye Caucii was a record.

I heard nothing claiming such. Instead, I heard it reported accurately that the turnout was pretty close to 2008.

This column really is full of strawmen.

[kabar]

Because there was not such a thing and because the GOP likes orderly processes, we had to go back to 2000 and dredge up John McCain​.

Erickson has his panties in a wad. He also has his facts wrong. McCain became the presumptive nominee of the party with just 33% of the total primary vote. After his narrow victories in FL and SC, the primary race was essentially over.

The fact is that the overwhelming majority of Reps did not want McCain to be the nominee. He was foisted on us by the Rep establishment and the MSM. McCain benefitted by the splintering of the conservative vote. With the race now down to three realistic candidates plus Paul, Romney will still have the advantage of a splintered opposition. We need to eliminate Gingrich or Santorum and then we will see where the strength lies.

Erickson endorsed Newt so he has a dog in the fight. The meaner and nastier Newt becomes, the less popular he will become.

[mnehring]

What’s Perry’s cash on hand? From what I understand he has blown through over 10 million in the past few months on commercials.

[Jeff Head]

1st I wanted Sarah Palin...but then she announced she was not running. Then I wanted Herman Cain...but he was completely savaged by unsubstantiated, false claims that put enough pressure on his family and particularly his wife to see him withdraw. I like Perry a lot. I do not like that he, in his core, believes that we are somehow not compassionate if we send the illegals home...all of them...and that he is willing to use state funds from taxpayers to fund their children getting in state tuition status, even though they are here illegally. I understand all of his reasoning, but that moment of his, telling us we did not have a heart because we want to do what is right and legal by our country...put me off. As did his meeting with La Raza in the 2010 election. Outside of that, however, I can say I genuinely like him and could support him.

I also like Santorum. He is consistant and unwavering on what I condier to be the most important underlying issues...the moral issues our nation faces. Particularluy abortion and the homosexual agnenda to desytroy the traditional family. However, I really was upset and it still leaves a very sour taste that he came out and supported Spectre and threw Toomey under the bus. Pure politics and big party politics is what that reaked of. Also, his votes for earmarks do not sit well with me at all. Having said that, on other issues he is very conservative and someone I can also support.

Romney is my last choice. I will support him against Obama because I honestly feel he will be much better for the nation than that avowed marxist, Obama. I believe he will do well economically and I believe we can pull him along on conservative issues. He is an abject politician who uses words and meaning to get his way politically. I believe that he personally has always been against abortion, but used language in a democratic state to the extent that he said that since the Supreme Court had decided the issue then he would support the law and not try and overturn it so he could get elected in Mass. Now, running for the GOP Presidential ticket he has changed his wording accordingly and politically. Having said that, I believe we will be able to hold his feet to the fire with a Tea Party oriented House and Senate...which we must also have anyway.

Right now, Santorum, Perry, Bachman (though she seems poised to get out), Gingrich and then Romney is my pecking order...though Perry may get out too. I really hope he does not because I believe come SC and FL he will rebound significantly.

[bigdirty]

The GOP establishment foist candidates like McCain and Romney on us because they want the other side to win. When it comes down to it, the GOP elites and Democrat elites want the same thing: big government control over your lives.

No GOP establishment folks would ever overturn any of the big government moves the democrats have made. They’re all one in the same.

[dirtboy]

Erickson endorsed Newt so he has a dog in the fight.

Erickson was pushing hard for Perry. Hence his derangement this morning when Perry failed to get traction there.

[MulberryDraw]

Only Rick Perry has run a campaign to make Washington “as inconsequential to our lives as possible.”

Ron Paul?

[Josephat]

Anyone else curious about the write ins last night? I think I heard that Huckabee had 59 votes. I would think both Palin and Cain would have had some. I doubt we’ll hear anything from the media.

[Cincinatus' Wife]

I heard nothing claiming such. Instead, I heard it reported accurately that the turnout was pretty close to 2008.

The governor of Iowa, Terry Branstad, was giving the high figure during his Fox interview last night.

Also "Both candidates gave speeches earlier in the night that sounded victorious. ABC News projected that 123,000 people voted in the Iowa contest, the largest turnout for a Republican caucus. Romney got 30,015 votes and Santorum received 30,007."

It was a record turnout as 2008 saw 120,000; 2000 saw 87,000.