Posted on 12/19/2011 10:57:34 AM PST by freespirited
Has Newt Gingrich lost momentum in polling for the Republican primary? Not in the latest CNN poll, although he may not have as much as Mitt Romney. According to their survey conducted from Friday to Sunday nationally, both GOP fronrunners have 28% of the respondents, leaving the rest of the field trailing badly. CNN reports this as Gingrich’s lead disappearing, which is true but a bit misleading:
Newt Gingrich’s lead in the race for the GOP presidential nomination has evaporated, according to a new national survey.
A CNN/ORC International Poll released Monday indicates that 28% of Republicans and independents who lean towards the GOP say the former House speaker is their choice for their party’s nominee, with an equal amount supporting former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. In CNN’s previous national poll, conducted last month, Gingrich held a 24%-20% margin over Romney. And Gingrich’s lead over the rest of the field of candidates was even larger in other surveys conducted at the beginning of this month. …
According to the new CNN survey, Rep. Ron Paul of Texas is in third place at 14%. That’s a five point rise for Paul since last month’s poll. The survey indicates Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota at 8%, Texas Gov. Rick Perry at 7%, former Sen. Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania at 4%, former Utah Gov. and former ambassador to China Jon Huntsman at 2%, and nine percent undecided.
Gingrich didn’t lose support between their last mid-November poll and now; in fact, he picked up four points to get to 28%. Romney gained eight points, though, to score his highest support since June and the start of the boomlet candidates. Rick Perry lost four points to hit his lowest level in the series at 7% and fifth place. It appears that his and Herman Cain’s supporters have mainly moved to Gingrich and Romney in the last month, while Paul picked up a small portion of Cain’s support as well.
This could still be changing, too. Only a little over a third said that they had made up their minds, while 56% said they may yet change theirs. Among the top five candidates, Rick Perry gets the best rating for possible reconsideration, from 54% of voters, while Romney comes in second with 52%; Gingrich falls below Michele Bachmann (44% and 46%, respectively) while Paul only gets 39% who would consider casting a vote for him in the primary. Conversely, Paul ranks highest among candidates for voters saying they would not consider their candidacies, 43% to Bachmann’s 42%. Only 16% of respondents said they would not consider casting a vote for Romney in the primary, with Gingrich at 24%. Combining up the support plus possible reconsideration, Romney leads with 80%, Gingrich gets 72%, Perry at 61%, Bachmann 54%, and Paul last at 53%.
There are a couple of curious observations in the sample, but it’s unclear as to whether the data indicates polling failures or just incomplete demo data. CNN’s poll shows “N/A” in demos we’d expect in a primary poll — Democrats, liberals, and Tea Party opponents. However, we also see them in place of candidate-by-candidate breakdowns in two age demos and several geographic demos. The two age demos are under 50, but when CNN combines all age demos into categories of under-50 and 50-plus, they do have data for both, which makes it seem as if they just didn’t collate it. Similarly, the only region with candidate breakdowns is the South, but there are no candidate breakdowns for rural voters. It seems unlikely that CNN only polled in the South but didn’t get rural voters, but without those numbers, it looks like the poll didn’t have a very reliable sample.
Of course, the nomination doesn’t get won on a national vote. The polls in Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina matter more in the immediate sense than does a national poll series. However, this tends to negate the idea that Gingrich’s momentum has totally collapsed, as well as the idea that Paul is experiencing a national surge of significance, at least at the moment.
It’s all in the Rove/DNC special sauce.
If this poll is accurate, a good many FReepers should be able to finally celebrate.
All of that hard work to help Romney bring his numbers up and push Newts down, might being paying off for these so called conservatives.
With just a bit more work, these FReepers might actually be able to help put Romney over the top and bring us another 4 fricking years of Obama.
Party on folks... be proud of the fruits of your labor.
Obama, the libs and the republican establishment have got to be laughing their a$$es off...
GO NEWT GO.........
So Newt goes up 4% in the poll and Newt is floundering. Makes one wonder considering all the pounding Newt has been getting over the last 3 weeks. I would say Newt is holding up well.
FWIW I find ORC is NOT a trustworthy source of information as they are inclined to Leftist bias. CNN is long understood to be the Clinton News Network, and ORC is owned, and guided by Vinod Gupta, a long time friend of Bills.
I noticed while watching the Romney interview with Mike Wallace on Fox yesterday that Romney was trying to appear more causal than usual for us common folks. He wore jeans, a sport coat and shirt with no tie. I believe in all the interviews I have ever seen him give, he has never worn anything other than a suit and tie.
Truer words were never spoken. Some of the folks here could be reporting for the leftest media or for Romney. Instead of tearing down candidates, try pointing out the positives and stop parroting cnn et all
I guess the gear he wore as a liberal governor of Taxachusetts doesn’t work in Iowa.
Hey Gator. I think Newt might be ok, but my thinking is Perry would be a better candidate. We don’t want Mitt, so for me if it didn’t look like Perry was going to make his move, I would stick with Newt.
I just made this comment (remember, I think Newt will probably be fine) on hotair:
——— -——
The Insider Advantage poll has Perry at 16%. Up from 13% last, and 6% a month ago. Clearly Perry is moving up in Iowa, as and when I expected. He is just that close to going to top in Iowa! I think he will…
If Newt is going down, we may want to coalesce around Perry as the anti-Mitt. Perry’s message of “I won’t let the big govt liberals ruin this country” (+ other things) is going to inspire incredible passion in the base, and the billion$$$ needed to beat O.
I don’t think any other candidate could inspire the $ that Perry will. In some sense, that should conclude the argument. The one with the most $ will almost certainly win.
This 30 second ad, which Perry should run constantly, changed my vote: http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=BAGhCnGz4S8
Considering how much effort and time Newt's cult put into trash talking Cain, it is utterly hypocritical for them to whine now that their own tactics of choice have been used against them.
Considering how much effort and time Newt’s cult put into trash talking Cain, it is utterly hypocritical for them to whine now that their own tactics of choice have been used against them
Don’t be a moron.
Just because many people in the Bachmann/Santorum/Perry camp understand that Newt’s an Establishment guy like Mitt, don’t get mad at us for not compormising our principles.
Here’s a clue. Get behind one of our true conservative candidates and Romney can easily be defeated.
But I’ll be damned (along with the other Bachmann/Santorum/Perry people who I have courtesy pinged) if you’re going to put the blame on us for possibly ending up with Romney.
Get over it. Your candidate flat out sucks. Maybe not as bad as Romney, but he still sucks. And all the turd polishing in the world isn’t going to hide that fact.
Newt’s record doesn’t end in 1997. There’s an additional 14 years to look at and scrutinize.
He is pro-global warming (though he is trying to do the tapdance back from sitting with Nancy on the couch). He said an I quote “The Era of Reagan is Over”, then after he realized the danger of saying that, covered his tracks by writing a pro-Reagan book. In his belief of a “big tent” GOP, he supported Scozzafava over the more conservative Hoffman just last year! He also supposedly defends Palin at the RNC against MSNBC, but then refers to her as a “gamble” to George Will and Robert Reich in the green room on “This Week” just a few weeks later. He is PRO-Amnesty and not ashamed of it. He was also for the “individual mandate” before deciding it was unconstitutional which he figured out right when he decided to run for President. He took the Trump position of bashing Paul Ryan’s budget-deficit plan and referred to it as “right-wing social engineering” just last May.
I’m sorry, but I don’t believe a damn thing that comes out of the man’s mouth and I’m not alone. That’s Why his poll numbers are falling.
You may have settled on compromising your principles for this election, but I have not, and I will not. I will not support either Newt or Romney when the race gets to FL.
GO ROMNEY!
Ooops,I meant to say, go away romney!:)
Newt is in the house..go newtie, to newtie...
Gingrich Calls for Cease-Fire After Heated Exchange With Romney
His highest point was early in December though when he was trouncing Romney. This poll is from mid November, that was when Gingrich was just starting to rise. From his highest point this shows he has suffered a huge drop.
And the national polls are misleading. Its what happening in Iowa thats important and there Gingrich’s support is collapsing.
It seems plain that many Freepers are not true conservatives although FR bills itself as a conservative site. JR does allow a pretty wide ranging debate. Also, many liberals, such as Bill Maher and Steven Colbert call themselves Libertarian and it is obvious they are not.
We know that liberals lie and conceal their identities as well as their intentions so I guess we should not be surprised.
I am not surprised, my FRiend... but frustrated a bit.
Which is exactly what I’m saying. Leave the trash talking to the libs.
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