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A Tuesday GOP Sweep Taking Shape?
NATIONAL REVIEW ONLINE ^ | September 12, 2011 | Jim Geraghty

Posted on 09/12/2011 3:01:31 PM PDT by neverdem

This is a survey result that will undoubtedly thrill many Republicans…

Republican Bob Turner is poised to pull a huge upset in the race to replace Anthony Weiner as the Congressman from New York’s 9th Congressional District.  He leads Democrat David Weprin 47-41 with Socialist Workers candidate Christopher Hoeppner at 4% and 7% of voters remaining undecided.

Turner’s winning in a heavily Democratic district for two reasons: a huge lead with independents and a large amount of crossover support.  He’s ahead by 32 points at 58-26 with voters unaffiliated with either major party.  And he’s winning 29% of the Democratic vote, holding Weprin under 60% with voters of his own party, while losing just 10% of Republican partisans.

If Turner wins on Tuesday it will be largely due to the incredible unpopularity of Barack Obama dragging his party down in the district.  Obama won 55% there in 2008 but now has a staggeringly bad 31% approval rating, with 56% of voters disapproving of him.  It’s a given that Republicans don’t like him but more shocking are his 16% approval rating with independents and the fact that he’s below 50% even with Democrats at 46% approving and 38% disapproving. Obama trails Mitt Romney 46-42 in a hypothetical match up in the district and leads Rick Perry only 44-43.

… but Josh Trevino notes that folks on the Right (myself included) haven’t always had such warm and fuzzy feelings about Public Policy Polling: “Today is the day we conservatives pretend we respect PPP polling, because it brings NY-9 wish fulfillment.” Having said that, we should also acknowledge that polling in special elections like this one is tougher than in a regular election because of the often much-lower turnout.

Over in the Corner, Patrick Brennan notes, “The race has been portrayed as a referendum on Obama, particularly his Israel policy and the national debt. In a heavily Jewish district, Turner has placed much of his hope for a victory on convincing likely voters that he will be a better friend to Israel than his Orthodox Jewish opponent, David Weprin, because of Obama’s cool attitude towards Israel. He has apparently succeeded, leading Weprin by a huge margin, 56 points to 39, among Jewish voters – a worrisome omen for Obama in 2012.”


TOPICS: Front Page News; Politics/Elections; US: District of Columbia; US: New York
KEYWORDS: bobturner; newyork; ny9; ny9cd; turner; weprin
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1 posted on 09/12/2011 3:01:35 PM PDT by neverdem
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To: neverdem

I hope so, but must.not.get.cocky.


2 posted on 09/12/2011 3:04:44 PM PDT by BfloGuy (Keynesians take the stand that the best way to sober up is more booze.)
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To: neverdem

I just came back from putting a bunch of signs around the neighborhood for Turner :)


3 posted on 09/12/2011 3:05:20 PM PDT by ari-freedom (It's time for Obama to get a downgrade.)
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To: cyborg; Clemenza; Cacique; NYCVirago; The Mayor; Darksheare; hellinahandcart; Chode; ...
Yo NY, enjoy first dibs.

FReepmail me if you want on or off my New York ping list.

4 posted on 09/12/2011 3:05:43 PM PDT by neverdem (Xin loi minh oi)
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To: neverdem

There will be a lot of dead people voting tomorrow.


5 posted on 09/12/2011 3:09:24 PM PDT by MistrX
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To: neverdem

Woo hoo! Monday night football and maybe some entertainment on Tuesday.


6 posted on 09/12/2011 3:10:50 PM PDT by MtnClimber (A government powerful enough to tell you what to eat can tell you when you can breathe.)
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To: neverdem

I won’t say Obama is as antisemitic as Hitler, but he’s probably right up there with most of the current Arab leaders.

The Jews in America really need to get their heads out of their collective behinds and realize that the only thing that is keeping Obama from throwing them and Israel to the wolves completely is his hope for reelection.

If he wins next time around (God forbid), it will be far worse than it is now.


7 posted on 09/12/2011 3:12:47 PM PDT by Ronin (Obamanation has replaced Bizarroworld as the most twisted place in the universe.)
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To: neverdem

does this survey take into account the votes that will be cast for the democrat in these elections that is usually defined as ballot stuffing. (see New York, California, Nevada, Washington politics as usual)


8 posted on 09/12/2011 3:12:47 PM PDT by dirtymac (Now is the time for all good men to come to the aid of their country!)
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To: neverdem

Thanks for the ping!


9 posted on 09/12/2011 3:14:14 PM PDT by Alamo-Girl
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To: neverdem

Just WHO are those 10% of Republicans who aren’t voting for Turner?


10 posted on 09/12/2011 3:14:22 PM PDT by ken5050 (Save the EARTH...it's the ONLY planet with CHOCOLATE!!!)
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To: neverdem

The New York’s 9th Congressional District is so heavily dimoKKKRAT I just can’t see the Republican pulling this one out. I think the dimoKKKRAT “machine” is well entrenched. I don’t think the polls can talk to the “dead” to see who they are going to vote for.


11 posted on 09/12/2011 3:20:48 PM PDT by Parley Baer
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To: neverdem

Well the title once again leaves out the fact that Baltimore Mayor race is being held and there is NO WAY in heck that is going Republican. In fact, I think it is their primary for Mayor. I don’t even think Republicans run for that seat anymore.


12 posted on 09/12/2011 3:24:23 PM PDT by napscoordinator
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To: neverdem

GOP Sweep? How many seats are up?


13 posted on 09/12/2011 3:25:54 PM PDT by napscoordinator
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To: neverdem

If Weprin is a seriously religious Jew, he has to know that the Democrats are now about as good for Israel as a bucket of warm unkosher spit. It’s probably a referendum on where the party is, more than the candidate. Weprin would be at best a voice calling in the Democrat wilderness. Turner would get GOP ears that are still listening.


14 posted on 09/12/2011 3:27:48 PM PDT by HiTech RedNeck (There's gonna be a Redneck Revolution! (See my freep page) [rednecks come in many colors])
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To: MistrX

No it is Morry and Irma and all the rest of the snowbirds asking for absentee ballots this weekend from their condos in Boca Pembrook Pines to cast that NY vote. You see they are still registered in NY even though their main residence these days is FLA and they love Debbie Schultz. That way they get to vote twice and screw up two places


15 posted on 09/12/2011 3:41:12 PM PDT by slapshot ("Were not gonna take it anymore" Twisted Sister)
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To: napscoordinator
GOP Sweep? How many seats are up?

The author had another piece with a similar or same title. Nevada's 2nd CD looks good for the GOP.

16 posted on 09/12/2011 3:41:27 PM PDT by neverdem (Xin loi minh oi)
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To: MistrX

No it is Morry and Irma and all the rest of the snowbirds asking for absentee ballots this weekend from their condos in Boca Pembrook Pines to cast that NY vote. You see they are still registered in NY even though their main residence these days is FLA and they love Debbie Schultz. That way they get to vote twice and screw up two places


17 posted on 09/12/2011 3:41:27 PM PDT by slapshot ("Were not gonna take it anymore" Twisted Sister)
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To: MistrX
There will be a lot of dead people voting tomorrow.

NY doesn't have any recent history of the dead voting. The rats have usually a lopsided registration advantage. When they screw up royally we get Giulianis and Patakis.

18 posted on 09/12/2011 3:50:03 PM PDT by neverdem (Xin loi minh oi)
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To: neverdem

These reports are simply a demoralization plot. They are trying to crush conservative hope. I won’t hold my breath expecting the pubbie to win.


19 posted on 09/12/2011 3:51:02 PM PDT by Tailback
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To: neverdem

I’ll believe this when I see it. But if it does happen, I can’t wait to see the face of Ms. Wasserman-Shultz and hear her obnoxious explanation.


20 posted on 09/12/2011 4:09:48 PM PDT by pineybill
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