KeyHouseRaces 23 October Update - We added AZ-07, IA-01, IA-02, MN-08 and NY-22 to the Master List

KeyHouseRaces.com ^ | 23 October 2010 | Interceptpoint

[Hush44]

I’ve forgotten what your maps are based on..
Polls, experts?

Curious, as ie NY20, now is a pale blue ‘toss-up’ by the experts, and NY 23 is pale pink.

[SharpRightTurn]

BUMP

[County Agent Hank Kimball]

IL-8
IL-8
IL-8
IL-8
IL-8
IL-8
IL-FREAKING-8

There's been only one published poll (in September)....but it had the race at a...
DEAD HEAT!

Hank
(Did I mention you need to look at Il-8?) ;-)

[Political Junkie Too]

NY-20 is based on a Sienna College poll from Sept 14 that had the race as Gibson (R) 37% - Murphy (D) 54%. The Experts have this race as a slight lean towards Democrats.

NY-23 is based on a Sienna College poll from Oct 11 that had the race as Doheny (R) 39% - Owens (D) 44%.The Experts have this race as a toss-up.

-PJ

[potlatch]

Ping to InterceptPoint’s wonderful charts keeping us up on the races - in case you haven’t seen them.

Thanks for all your work InterceptPoint.

[InterceptPoint]

Impressive HTML skills.

IL-08 has been on the Master List for quite awhile. But it’s not looking real strong. What do you know that our Expert have missed?

[usconservative]

IL-11 and IL-14 are definitely going to the Republicans. IL-17 may, it’s really close.

[Hush44]

thanks for reply

Sienna is old data, and for some reason they don’t have a good track record in this district (NY20)

3 polls since the Siena one, 2 rep/1 dem
Silver does use them for his prediction of Toss-up for NY20

So much data..
Only Nov 2 will tell..

Thanks for all your work!

[County Agent Hank Kimball]

I know the following:

- This is historically a GOP district (until the last 4 years, but lots of places are like that).
- The only polls done on the race had it at a DEAD HEAT in late September. It’s hard to imagine the situation has gotten any better for the Dem candidate since then.

http://quincynews.org/local-news/toss-ups-galore-in-illinois-8th-17th.html

Hank

[justiceseeker93]

According to Dick Morris, NY-02 (Israel-D vs. Gomez-R) and NY-04 (McCarthy-D vs. Becker-R) are both very much in play and very tight.

[lowtaxsmallgov]

There’s a rumor that Bill Clinton is coming to NY29 to campaign for Scott Murphy on Nov 1. More Astro-Murph!!

Yes...
- Bill Clinton, the Dem’s supposed best asset
- coming for a House race (not Senate, not Gov)
- where the Dems have poured over $5 MILLION DOLLARS
- the day before the election

Our’s is the little campaign that could! GO CHRIS!!!

[Hildy]

Do you know anything about IL-9??

That’s Republican Joel Pollak fighting a very nasty lib...any polls out of that?

[Hush44]

OMG..Bubba

and MoveON.org is going to do some last minute ads in 8 Senate and 20 House Districts— 2 of the house districts are in NY...doesn’t say which ones. Probably for ole Scotty tho.

They really are working hard for the guy that switched his vote for Obama - must have promised him a lot, when they had that private meeting.

[Hush44]

Election Projection...NY20
CD-20 10/23/10 RATING CHANGE: Weak Murphy to Weak Gibson

? should be “weak R” on your list

[cherry]

how are things looking for Bergman from your standpoint?

also....I sure wish Miller-Meeks would win in Iowa....

and come on Allen West....

[InterceptPoint]

The problem with EP is that they post their Saturday updates very late and so they miss my deadline of late Friday/early Saturday when I do my updates on KHR. So the favorable change for Gibson will not show up until next week’s updates.

[InterceptPoint]

You are right. I've posted the IL-08 poll - it's 41 to 41.

KHR Polls

[MarineMom613]

please add me to ping list on this. Thank you.

[InterceptPoint]

OK. You’re on the Ping List.

[SunkenCiv]

Thanks InterceptPoint.