Posted on 10/23/2010 8:31:40 AM PDT by InterceptPoint
As noted last week, we have given up our one-time goal of holding our Master List to just 100 races. There are just too many Vulnerable Democrats surfacing unexpectedly for us to stick to that plan.
And this week was no exception. We added 5 new Vulnerable Dems to our Master List: AZ-07, IA-01, IA-02, MN-08 and NY-22.
So we now have 106 seats in play - 99 Dem seats and 7 for the Republicans. And only 4 of those GOP seats are looking vulnerable at this point.
We also added MO-03 and TX-27 to our Tier 2 list that now has 11 Not-Quite-Ready-For-Prime-Time Vulnerable Dems that are our leading candiates for making it to the Master List in the closing week of this year's election season.
And we are watching TX-29 as well. We've heard that GOP groups have spent $300,000 in the district within the last week so it seems that the race has finally made it onto the GOP radar screen. But we've seen no poll so far.
IF YOU HAVE ANY INSIDE INFO ON WHAT IS GOING ON IN TX-29 LET US KNOW.
Freeper PJ Too has been generating weekly Pickup Projections based on the KeyHouseRace Master List and the latest polls. PJ has two ways of modeling his pickup projection: Expert Ratings Based and Poll Based. We have put links to both models on the Home Page at KHR.
We've also been posting the KHR Pickup Projection and the projections by several other sources on the Home Page at KHR. These projections have been moving up steadily. A good example of this is Real Clear Poliltics. A week ago RCP was predicting a pickup of 53 seats. Today their estimate is 59 seats. That's a big move in just a week.
Here is the current summary:
And the "Experts" came through this week for the Pubbies yet again with the Dems picking up just 10 upgrades while the GOP was picking up 79. This was the largest number of rating changes we have seen so far and came without a Larry Sabato update. Sabato has promised his final predictions sometime next week.
And also worth noting:
Our index improved to -.068 from last weeks -.074 even with the addition of 5 new Dem seats which skews the index in favor of the Dems.
Some statistics about the Master List:
I’ve forgotten what your maps are based on..
Polls, experts?
Curious, as ie NY20, now is a pale blue ‘toss-up’ by the experts, and NY 23 is pale pink.
BUMP
There's been only one published poll (in September)....but it had the race at a...
DEAD HEAT!
Hank
(Did I mention you need to look at Il-8?) ;-)
NY-23 is based on a Sienna College poll from Oct 11 that had the race as Doheny (R) 39% - Owens (D) 44%.The Experts have this race as a toss-up.
-PJ
Ping to InterceptPoint’s wonderful charts keeping us up on the races - in case you haven’t seen them.
Thanks for all your work InterceptPoint.
Impressive HTML skills.
IL-08 has been on the Master List for quite awhile. But it’s not looking real strong. What do you know that our Expert have missed?
IL-11 and IL-14 are definitely going to the Republicans. IL-17 may, it’s really close.
thanks for reply
Sienna is old data, and for some reason they don’t have a good track record in this district (NY20)
3 polls since the Siena one, 2 rep/1 dem
Silver does use them for his prediction of Toss-up for NY20
So much data..
Only Nov 2 will tell..
Thanks for all your work!
I know the following:
- This is historically a GOP district (until the last 4 years, but lots of places are like that).
- The only polls done on the race had it at a DEAD HEAT in late September. It’s hard to imagine the situation has gotten any better for the Dem candidate since then.
http://quincynews.org/local-news/toss-ups-galore-in-illinois-8th-17th.html
Hank
There’s a rumor that Bill Clinton is coming to NY29 to campaign for Scott Murphy on Nov 1. More Astro-Murph!!
Yes...
- Bill Clinton, the Dem’s supposed best asset
- coming for a House race (not Senate, not Gov)
- where the Dems have poured over $5 MILLION DOLLARS
- the day before the election
Our’s is the little campaign that could! GO CHRIS!!!
Do you know anything about IL-9??
That’s Republican Joel Pollak fighting a very nasty lib...any polls out of that?
OMG..Bubba
and MoveON.org is going to do some last minute ads in 8 Senate and 20 House Districts— 2 of the house districts are in NY...doesn’t say which ones. Probably for ole Scotty tho.
They really are working hard for the guy that switched his vote for Obama - must have promised him a lot, when they had that private meeting.
Election Projection...NY20
CD-20 10/23/10 RATING CHANGE: Weak Murphy to Weak Gibson
? should be “weak R” on your list
also....I sure wish Miller-Meeks would win in Iowa....
and come on Allen West....
The problem with EP is that they post their Saturday updates very late and so they miss my deadline of late Friday/early Saturday when I do my updates on KHR. So the favorable change for Gibson will not show up until next week’s updates.
please add me to ping list on this. Thank you.
OK. You’re on the Ping List.
Thanks InterceptPoint.
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