KeyHouseRaces 23 October Update - We added AZ-07, IA-01, IA-02, MN-08 and NY-22 to the Master List

KeyHouseRaces.com ^ | 23 October 2010 | Interceptpoint

[InterceptPoint]

As noted last week, we have given up our one-time goal of  holding our Master List to just 100 races. There are just too many Vulnerable Democrats surfacing unexpectedly for us to stick to that plan.

And this week was no exception. We added 5 new Vulnerable Dems to our Master List: AZ-07, IA-01, IA-02, MN-08 and NY-22.

So we now have 106 seats in play - 99 Dem seats and 7 for the Republicans. And only 4 of those GOP seats are looking vulnerable at this point.

We also added MO-03 and TX-27 to our Tier 2 list that now has 11 Not-Quite-Ready-For-Prime-Time Vulnerable Dems that are our leading candiates for making it to the Master List in the closing week of this year's election season.

And we are watching TX-29 as well. We've heard that GOP groups have spent $300,000 in the district within the last week so it seems that the race has finally made it onto the GOP radar screen. But we've seen no poll so far.

IF YOU HAVE ANY INSIDE INFO ON WHAT IS GOING ON IN TX-29 LET US KNOW.

Freeper PJ Too has been  generating weekly Pickup Projections based on the KeyHouseRace Master List and the latest polls. PJ has two ways of modeling his pickup projection: Expert Ratings Based and Poll Based. We have put links to both models on the Home Page at KHR.

We've also been posting the KHR Pickup Projection and the projections by several other sources on the Home Page at KHR. These projections have been moving up steadily. A good example of this is Real Clear Poliltics. A week ago RCP was predicting a pickup of 53 seats. Today their estimate is 59 seats. That's a big move in just a week.

Here is the current summary:

And the "Experts" came through this week for the Pubbies yet again with the Dems picking up just 10 upgrades while the GOP was picking up 79. This was the largest number of rating changes we have seen so far and came without a Larry Sabato update. Sabato has promised his final predictions sometime next week.

Experts: GOP 79 and Dems 10

And also worth noting:

Two Weeks of Expert Updates: GOP 150 and Dems 18

Our index improved to -.068 from last weeks -.074 even with the addition of 5 new Dem seats which skews the index in favor of the Dems.

Some statistics about the Master List:

• This week we have 63 Dem seats that rank no better than Toss-Up Leaning D. That's up from 61 a week ago and 52 two weeks ago.
• 83 Dem seats are rated no better (for the Dems) than Leans D. That's up from 78 a week ago
• Only 11 of the 99 Dem seats look relatively safe with a Likely D average. That's the same as last week but we added 5 new Dems this week.

[InterceptPoint]

District			Democrat	Seat	Republican	Experts	District
	AL	2	Bobby Bright	Incumbent D	Martha Roby	Toss-Up	AL	2
	AR	1	Chad Causey	Open D	Rick Crawford	Leans R	AR	1
	AR	2	Joyce Elliott	Open D	Tim Griffin	Likely R	AR	2
	AZ	1	Ann Kirkpatrick	Incumbent D	Paul Gosar	Leans R	AZ	1
	AZ	5	Harold Mitchell	Incumbent D	David Schweikert	Toss-Up	AZ	5
	AZ	7	Raúl Grijalva	Incumbent D	Ruth McClung	Leans D	AZ	7
	AZ	8	Gabrielle Giffords	Incumbent D	Jesse Kelly	Toss-Up	AZ	8
	CA	3	Ami Bera	Incumbent R	Dan Lungren	Leans R	CA	3
	CA	11	Jerry McNerney	Incumbent D	David Harmer	Toss-Up	CA	11
	CA	20	Jim Costa	Incumbent D	Andy Vidak	Leans D	CA	20
	CA	47	Loretta Sanchez	Incumbent D	Van Tran	Leans D	CA	47
	CO	3	John Salazar	Incumbent D	Scott Tipton	Toss-Up	CO	3
	CO	4	Betsy Markey	Incumbent D	Cory Gardner	Leans R	CO	4
	CO	7	Ed Perlmutter	Incumbent D	Ryan Frazier	Likely D	CO	7
	CT	4	Jim Himes	Incumbent D	Dan Debicella	Leans D	CT	4
	CT	5	Christopher Murphy	Incumbent D	Sam Caligiuri	Leans D	CT	5
	DE	AL	John Carney	Open R	Glen Urquhart	Leans D	DE	AL
	FL	2	Allen Boyd	Incumbent D	Steve Southerland	Leans R	FL	2
	FL	8	Alan Grayson	Incumbent D	Daniel Webster	Leans R	FL	8
	FL	22	Ron Klein	Incumbent D	Allen West	Toss-Up	FL	22
	FL	24	Suzanne Kosmas	Incumbent D	Sandy Adams	Leans R	FL	24
	FL	25	Joe Garcia	Open R	David Rivera	Leans R	FL	25
	GA	2	Sanford Bishop	Incumbent D	Mike Keown	Toss-Up	GA	2
	GA	8	Jim Marshall	Incumbent D	Austin Scott	Toss-Up	GA	8
	HI	1	Colleen Hanabusa	Incumbent R	Charles Djou	Toss-Up	HI	1
	IA	1	Bruce Braley	Incumbent D	Ben Lange	Likely D	IA	1
	IA	2	Dave Loebsack	Incumbent D	Marianneette Miller Meeks	Likely D	IA	2
	IA	3	Leonard Boswell	Incumbent D	Brad Zaun	Leans D	IA	3
	ID	1	Walter Minnick	Incumbent D	Raul Labrador	Leans D	ID	1
	IL	8	Melissa Bean	Incumbent D	Joe Walsh	Likely D	IL	8
	IL	10	Dan Seals	Open R	Bob Dold	Toss-Up	IL	10
	IL	11	Debbie Halvorson	Incumbent D	Adam Kinzinger	Likely R	IL	11
	IL	14	Bill Foster	Incumbent D	Randy Hultgren	Toss-Up	IL	14
	IL	17	Phil Hare	Incumbent D	Bobby Schilling	Toss-Up	IL	17
	IN	2	Joe Donnelly	Incumbent D	Jackie Walorski	Leans D	IN	2
	IN	8	W. Trent Van Haaften	Open D	Dr. Larry Bucshon	Likely R	IN	8
	IN	9	Baron Hill	Incumbent D	Todd Young	Toss-Up	IN	9
	KS	3	Stephene Moore	Open D	Kevin Yoder	Likely R	KS	3
	KY	6	Ben Chandler	Incumbent D	Andy Barr	Leans D	KY	6
	LA	2	Cedric Richmond	Incumbent R	Joseph Cao	Leans D	LA	2
	LA	3	Ravi Sangisetty	Open D	Jeff Landry	Likely R	LA	3
	MA	10	William Keating	Open D	Jeff Perry	Toss-Up	MA	10
	MD	1	Frank Kratovil	Incumbent D	Andy Harris	Leans R	MD	1
	MI	1	Gary McDowell	Open D	Dr. Daniel Benishek	Leans R	MI	1
	MI	7	Mark Schauer	Incumbent D	Tim Walberg	Toss-Up	MI	7
	MI	9	Gary Peters	Incumbent D	"Rocky" Raczowski	Leans D	MI	9
	MN	1	Tim Walz	Incumbent D	Randy Demmer	Leans D	MN	1
	MN	8	Jim Oberstar	Incumbent D	Chip Cravaack	Likely D	MN	8
	MO	4	Ike Skelton	Incumbent D	Vicky Hartzler	Toss-Up	MO	4
	MS	1	Travis Childers	Incumbent D	Alan Nunnelee	Toss-Up	MS	1
	MS	4	Gene Taylor	Incumbent D	Steven Palazzo	Leans D	MS	4
	NC	2	Bob Etheridge	Incumbent D	Renee Ellmers	Leans D	NC	2
	NC	7	Mike McIntyre	Incumbent D	Ilario Pantano	Leans D	NC	7
	NC	8	Larry Kissell	Incumbent D	Harold Johnson	Toss-Up	NC	8
	NC	11	Heath Shuler	Incumbent D	Jeff Miller	Leans D	NC	4
	ND	AL	Earl Pomeroy	Incumbent D	Rick Berg	Toss-Up	ND	AL
	NH	1	Carol Shea-Porter	Incumbent D	Frank Guinta	Leans R	NH	1
	NH	2	Annie Kuster	Open D	Charlie Bass	Toss-Up	NH	2
	NJ	3	John Adler	Incumbent D	Jon Runyan	Toss-Up	NJ	3
	NM	1	Martin Heinrich	Incumbent D	Jon Barela	Leans D	NM	1
	NM	2	Harry Teague	Incumbent D	Steve Pearce	Leans R	NM	2
	NV	3	Dina Titus	Incumbent D	Dr. Joe Heck	Toss-Up	NV	3
	NY	1	Tim Bishop	Incumbent D	Randy Altschuler	Leans D	NY	1
	NY	13	Mike McMahon	Incumbent D	Mike Grimm	Leans D	NY	13
	NY	19	John Hall	Incumbent D	Nan Hayworth	Toss-Up	NY	19
	NY	20	Scott Murphy	Incumbent D	Chris Gibson	Toss-Up	NY	20
	NY	22	Maurice Hinchey	Incumbent D	George Phillips	Likely D	NY	22
	NY	23	Bill Owens	Incumbent D	Matt Doheny	Toss-Up	NY	23
	NY	24	Mike Arcuri	Incumbent D	Richard Hanna	Toss-Up	NY	24
	NY	25	Dan Maffei	Incumbent D	Ann Marie Buerkle	Leans D	NY	25
	NY	29	Mathew Zeller	Open D	Tom Reed	Likely R	NY	29
	OH	1	Steve Driehaus	Incumbent D	Steve Chabot	Leans R	OH	1
	OH	6	Charlie Wilson	Incumbent D	Bill Johnson	Leans D	OH	6
	OH	13	Betty Sutton	Incumbent D	Tom Ganley	Likely D	OH	13
	OH	15	Mary Jo Kilroy	Incumbent D	Steve Stivers	Likely R	OH	15
	OH	16	John Boccieri	Incumbent D	Jim Renacci	Toss-Up	OH	16
	OH	18	Zach Space	Incumbent D	Bob Gibbs	Toss-Up	OH	18
	OR	5	Kurt Schrader	Incumbent D	Scott Bruun	Toss-Up	OR	5
	PA	3	Kathleen Dahlkemper	Incumbent D	Mike Kelly	Leans R	PA	3
	PA	4	Jason Altmire	Incumbent D	Keith Rothfus	Likely D	PA	4
	PA	7	Bryan Lentz	Open D	Pat Meehan	Toss-Up	PA	7
	PA	8	Patrick Murphy	Incumbent D	Mike Fitzpatrick	Toss-Up	PA	8
	PA	10	Chris Carney	Incumbent D	Tom Marino	Toss-Up	PA	10
	PA	11	Paul Kanjorski	Incumbent D	Lou Barletta	Leans R	PA	11
	PA	12	Mark Critz	Incumbent D	Timothy Burns	Leans D	PA	12
	PA	17	Tim Holden	Incumbent D	David Argall	Likely D	PA	17
	RI	1	David Cicilline	Open D	John Loughlin	Likely D	RI	1
	SC	5	John Spratt Jr.	Incumbent D	Mick Mulvaney	Toss-Up	SC	5
	SD	AL	Stephanie Sandlin	Incumbent D	Kristi Noem	Toss-Up	SD	AL
	TN	4	Lincoln Davis	Incumbent D	Dr. Scott Desjarlais	Toss-Up	TN	4
	TN	6	Brett Carter	Open D	Diane Black	Likely R	TN	6
	TN	8	Roy Herron	Open D	Stephen Fincher	Leans R	TN	8
	TX	17	Chet Edwards	Incumbent D	Bill Flores	Leans R	TX	17
	TX	23	Ciro Rodriguez	Incumbent D	Quico Canseco	Toss-Up	TX	23
	VA	2	Glenn Nye	Incumbent D	Scott Rigell	Leans R	VA	2
	VA	5	Tom Perriello	Incumbent D	Robert Hurt	Leans R	VA	5
	VA	9	Rick Boucher	Incumbent D	Morgan Griffith	Leans D	VA	9
	VA	11	Gerald Connolly	Incumbent D	Keith Fimian	Leans D	VA	11
	WA	2	Rick Larsen	Incumbent D	John Koster	Leans D	WA	2
	WA	3	Denny Heck	Open D	Jaime Herrera	Leans R	WA	3
	WA	8	Suzan DelBene	Incumbent R	Dave Reichert	Leans R	WA	8
	WI	3	Ron Kind	Incumbent D	Dan Kapanke	Leans D	WI	3
	WI	7	Julie Lassa	Open D	Sean Duffy	Leans R	WI	7
	WI	8	Steve Kagen	Incumbent D	Reid Ribble	Toss-Up	WI	8
	WV	1	Mike Oliverio	Open D	David B. McKinley	Toss-Up	WV	1
	WV	3	Nick Rahall	Incumbent D	"Spike" Maynard	Likely D	WV	3
Rating and Color Code				Average Expert		Average	-0.068
				From	To
Safe D				-3	-2.5
Safe D				-2.5	-1.5
Leans D				-1.5	-0.5
Toss-Up -> D				-0.5	0
Toss-Up -> R				0	0.5
Leans R				0.5	1.5
Likely R				1.5	2.5
Safe R				2.5	3.5
Updated			23-Oct-10

[InterceptPoint]

[paudio]

What about Doug Cloud (WA-6)? Jim Geraghty mentioned his name yesterday.

Could There Be One More Competitive House Race in Washington, Completely Overlooked?

[Tuscaloosa Goldfinch]

What about the Hoyer/Lollar race?

[Vigilanteman]

You’ve done a great job. Is there only one more list before election day? I am on poll closing duty (as well as opening duty and first shift), so I would like to print out your final list and start celebrating returns when I get home. Since it is a mid-term election, I’m hopeful that we can complete closing duties by around 9 p.m. and start celebrating the first results shortly thereafter.

[acapesket]

Add MA 06 John Tierney D v. Bill Hudak R
I don’t know the polls, just the area, Hudak has a great shot at this seat.
Tierney’s wife was just indicted for money laundering.
Admittedly in MA that is a badge of honor.

[combat_boots]

Media are trying to play out the Dem message of ‘tightening races’ and the Senate not flipping.

Folks I’ve talked to say the Conservatives & Republicans have a chance at 100 seats in the House ALONE.

[InterceptPoint]

What about Doug Cloud (WA-6)? Jim Geraghty mentioned his name yesterday.

Like TX-29, WA-06 is starting to poke up on the radar screens. But our "Experts" haven't taken notice and we are sticking with our basic scheme: you need two "Experts" to rate the race as Leans D or better to make the Master List.

[EGPWS]

Jim Oberstar obviously spent his $500 in total contributions wisely. /s

[E.G.C.]

BTTT

[InterceptPoint]

Is there only one more list before election day?

The current plan is to post the final update to the Master List and Tier 2 list next Saturday. We're betting that our "Experts" will close up shop after that. But we could be wrong. If there are significant changes over the weekend we will do a Monday November 1 update.

[paudio]

Thanks. I just have one question: Are the war chest listed on the site the most current one, or at least from early October?

[EGPWS]

If there are significant changes over the weekend we will do a Monday November 1 update.

I.P., your posts during the election cycle have been greatly appreciated by all.

Thank you.

[InterceptPoint]

Thanks. I just have one question: Are the war chest listed on the site the most current one, or at least from early October?

We updated all of the funding data about a week ago. The data is based on the end of September reports by all of the candidates.

[paudio]

Great.. Thanks!

[Freddd]

Media are trying to play out the Dem message of ‘tightening races’ and the Senate not flipping.

Folks I’ve talked to say the Conservatives & Republicans have a chance at 100 seats in the House ALONE.

---

Yep. War is Deception. Democrats are now trying to deceive republicans into believing the Tsunami TEANAMI isn’t coming.

ALERT: TEANAMI ON THE WAY!

[seekthetruth]

	FL	2	Allen Boyd	Incumbent D	Steve Southerland	Leans R	FL	2
	FL	8	Alan Grayson	Incumbent D	Daniel Webster	Leans R	FL	8
	FL	22	Ron Klein	Incumbent D	Allen West	Toss-Up	FL	22
	FL	24	Suzanne Kosmas	Incumbent D	Sandy Adams	Leans R	FL	24
	FL	25	Joe Garcia	Open R	David Rivera	Leans R	FL	2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

FLORIDA HAS SOME MORE GREAT CONSERVATIVES TO UNSEAT DEMS!

DISTRICT 3:
Mike Yost - (R) - To Face DEM INCUMBENT, Corrine Brown.
http://yostforcongress.com/

********
DISTRICT 11:
Mike Prendergast - (R) - To Face DEM INCUMBENT, Kathy Castor.
http://www.pickprendergast.com/

********
DISTRICT 17:
Roderick Vereen (NPA) - To Face Fredricka Wilson (Kendrick Meek’s old seat.)
http://www.roderickvereenforcongress2010.org/

********
DISTRICT 19:
Joe Budd - (R) - To Face DEM INCUMBENT, Ted Deutch.
http://joebuddforcongress.com/

********
DISTRICT 20:
Karen Harrington - (R) - To Face DEM INCUMBENT, Debbie Wasserman Schultz.
http://www.karenforcongress.com/

********
DISTRICT 23:
Bernard Sansaricq - (R) - To Face DEM INCUMBENT, Alcee Hastings
http://sansaricq4congress.org/

[Islander7]

MS-04 Taylor (D) vs Palazzo (R)- Palazzo now leads Taylor per an internal GOP poll.

Cross your fingers. I want to see Taylor go down.

[InterceptPoint]

Right now Florida is the star of the show for Election 2010.

[fightinJAG]

Yes! Hoyer seems vulnerable just by the way he is acting — leaning over to Lollar and saying “I’m coming after you!”

What a chump.

As Lollar said, NO, the voters are coming after you, Steny!

From his lips to God’s ears!

http://www.thebaynet.com/news/index.cfm/fa/viewstory/story_ID/20059