Obama Beats Generic Republican by 2 Points (Obama 44% Anyone But Obama 42%)

NRO (and Hotline) ^ | 02/11/10 | Jonah Goldberg

[coaltrain]

I'm no psephologist, but my guess is that's not where Axelrod wanted to be at this point. From Hotline:

A generic GOP candidate would run virtually even with Pres. Obama in a hypothetical WH '12 matchup, according to a new Gallup poll released today. The poll was conducted from Feb. 1 to Feb. 3, surveying 942 registered voters for a margin of error of +/- 3.2%. General Election Matchup Obama 44 Generic GOPer 42 Meanwhile, ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney (R) leads the field among 490 GOPers and GOP-leaning voters (for a margin of error of +/- 4.4%), but other big names are right behind him. Ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R), Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA), ex-AR Gov. Mike Huckabee (R), ex-Speaker Newt Gingrich (R), Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX), MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R), VA Gov. Bob McDonnell (R), ex-Sen. Fred Thompson (R) and LA Gov. Bobby Jindal (R) all scored at least 1% in the open-ended question. Primary Election Matchup Romney 14 Palin 11 McCain 7 Brown 4 Huckabee 3 Gingrich 3 Paul 2 Pawlenty 1 McDonnell 1 Thompson 1 Jindal 1

Gallup did not test any of the possible GOP candidates against Obama by name. But the poll shows that Obama is not immune from his party's decline in popularity. The same poll found the two parties tied on a generic '10 congressional ballot, 45%-45%.

[paulycy]

psephologist

[proudpapa]

Plus, the electoral college usually helps the GOP candidate.

[factmart]

Any poll that doesn't have Palin leading is liberal propaganda.

[agrace]

LOL

I looked it up, I couldn’t stand it. Wonder if it’s offered as a major anywhere.

[DM1]

i would like to see those numbers flip meaning any GOPer at 44% Obummer at 42% but this is probably a good sign
heck i may throw my hat in the ring if this trend continues ;)

[ricks_place]

Obama runs even with a generic Republican for President in 2012. Axelrod may believe this is fine with a billion dollars or so given to ACORN and a billion dollars or so given to the Americor con.

[OldDeckHand]

'National elections are different animals though. It is one thing to vote against Congress and quite another to kick someone out of the WH. Face it, there are 40 plus % of the population that will vote D or R every time they vote."

Presidential incumbents ALWAYS have an advantage. Since 1936, only two challengers have unseated incumbent Presidents who were standing for reelection - Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton.

Interestingly, both times there was a Independent candidate that did reasonably well; Ross Perot in 1992 who managed almost 20% of the popular vote and John Anderson in 1980 who garnered 6% of the popular vote. In each instance, those "successful" independent candidates were probably more reflective of the country's anger at the incumbent's party and their nominee.

[SoFloFreeper]

I smell a cow patty. BO is not anywhere NEAR beating a Republican...this nation is going through a HUGE case of voters’ remorse.

[b4its2late]

Palin is not our answer. She’d be a good Sec of State, but not our answer to take back the WH.

[edh]

“An incumbent polling below 50% is bad news.”

If this were Feb. 2012, I’d have a tingle running up my leg. Right now though, this poll is pretty much meaningless.

Bush would have crushed “generic Democrat” in a Feb. 2002 poll.

All I am trying to say is that we need to stay focused on the here and now. Three years is an eternity in politics.

Ed

[Clemenza]

Any poll that doesn't have Palin leading is liberal propaganda.

I hope you are being sarcastic. Most independents think she is either incompetent or are waiting to see more. Sarahlians live in a bubble it seems.

[xzins]

I’m not a repub, but in my mind a generic repub is a rino and I won’t vote for it either. (Nor obama either)

[murdoog]

Sorry about the “you”. It was addressed to the original author, but I should have thought about how it could be taken by you, the poster. BTW, cool handle

[ZULU]

Beware Gallup and Zogby.

But the GOP can’t take anything for granted - espcially if they haven’t learned by their mistakes.

[The Comedian]

So about 22% of America is too stupid to live, and another 22% is too evil to live, for a total of 44% who should not be allowed to vote under any circumstances.

Frowning takes 68 muscles.
Smiling takes 6.
Pulling this trigger takes 2.
I'm lazy.

[equalitybeforethelaw]

After NJ, Va and Mass, is anybody actually buying this? I’m not.

Yea, I don’t believe this poll. If the election were held today I would expect bammy to loose by a good 12 points. The man is a constant buzz kill and moronic moralist. I can feel the viseral desire in America to dump this clown. Still waiting for Hillary to decide to spend more time with her family. Expect this announcement within the next 3 months.

[Sequoyah101]

We’re doomed ...see the tagline.

[Obadiah]

[DJ MacWoW]

Still waiting for Hillary to decide to spend more time with her family. Expect this announcement within the next 3 months.

I haven't been paying attention to Hillary. Until she says something stupid or marxist and it's posted here. Do you think she'll run?

[Josh Painter]

The poll’s margin of error mean that it’s a statistical tie between Obama and a generic republican.

The GOP poll’s MOE also means that Mitt and Sarah are essentially in a statistical tie.

If a candidate gets 44% in a poll with a MOE of plus or minus 3 percent, that means his actual number could be anywhere between 41% and 47%, inclusive.

- JP