Democrats (In alphabetical order):
Posted on 01/03/2008 9:01:51 AM PST by Momaw Nadon
Democrats (In alphabetical order):
Fred knows what he has to do to win. (He’s never lost an election.) And he is right on track with his strategy, which is to get third in Iowa. Probably even ahead of it.
Fred will do much better than expected. The media have overplayed their hand and set up lowered expectations, just like they have in the past with Bush.
The media consistently defeat themselves.
Fred Thompson consistently comes through for conservatives.
A significant number of Republicans will not vote for Giuliani, Romney, Huckabee or McCain, as evidenced by the level of passionate comments against these candidates in the blogosphere. Whether it’s 5% or 25% of total Republican votes, it will be enough to lose.
However, if Thompson is the nominee, all Republicans will vote for him, because he has no significant policy or ideological negatives. Thompson will unite the party like Reagan did, even bringing in many Reagan Democrats.
Fred is the best shot we have at keeping the White House.
If I lived in Iowa, I’d vote for Duncan Hunter.
But Fred Thompson would be my second choice after Hunter.
Remember, this Intrade market is media-driven.
I live in Iowa and Fred gets my vote!
Romney would be the logical pick as he provides geographic and idealogical balance. He could also provide fundraising, maximizing the amount of limited party funds available to help down ticket candidates. He is also second with positives at 73%.
My first choice would be a Hunter-Thompson ticket but, at this point, I don't see how it could happen.
The “age issue” is a non-issue. The “lazy issue” is a non-issue. Meaning neither will last through the general election.
So that leaves us with Fred having the highest positives at 77%.
Follow the money
You need to spend more time talking to these people to understand just how shallow their thinking really is.
In a saner time, even a fair candidate could campaign for re-election from their front porch in Ohio as McKinnely did in 1900 or from a train tour as Truman did in 1948. Those days are long gone.
Issues without substance can be influential but not over an extended period.
It depends on what you mean by an extended period. Cases in point-- global warming, reverse discrimination, the war on poverty, the Clinton Dynasty, Jesse Jackson, the Madeline Albright view of foreign affairs . . . need I go on?
Okay, what do the charts mean?
Looks like the results of a polygraph test to me.
basically odds on gambling on the winner set up like stock. So it really means nothing.
The time of day is on the x-axis and the futures contract price is on the y-axis.
The prices go from 0 to 100.
The candidate with the highest futures contract price is the most likely to win the Iowa Caucus (according to the buyers and sellers of the futures contracts).
Unfortunately, these charts only indicate which candidate will probably win first place. It does not predict what place the non-first-place candidates will finish in.
Also, the charts are updated constantly (just refresh your browser), so there may be lead changes.
...and lots of HAIR. Sad but true, in the current superficial media climate, appearance will be a factor (minor perhaps, but not insignificant).
LOL! I hadn't thought of that. But you're right. He has enough hair to cover both his head and Fred's.
Wow, thanks a bundle for posting this thread!
since Rasmussen started posting “prediction market” results, the new front runner is... McCain.
Rasmussen has started using Intrade results.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1945852/posts
They openly admit that the data for Iowa between Christmas and New Year’s is unreliable: “Rasmussen Reports has not conducted polling in Iowa between Christmas and New Years. We have doubts about the ability to obtain reliable results during that time frame.”
Snapshot from Intrade:
2008 Republican Presidential Nominee
2008.GOP.NOM.MCCAIN 27.7
2008.GOP.NOM.ROMNEY 21.0
2008.GOP.NOM.GIULIANI 22.5
2008.GOP.NOM.HUCKABEE 12.0
2008.GOP.NOM.PAUL 7.5
2008.GOP.NOM.THOMPSON(F)3.3
2008.GOP.NOM.HUNTER 0.1
Basically, it’s a wide open race, with the lead changing on a weekly basis. Might as well support the true conservative, Hunter.
.
.
.
.
The Efficacy Of Prediction Markets The Liberty Papers ^ |
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts
According to Intrade, the winner of the December 12th GOP debate was... Duncan Hunter.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1938773/posts
Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926032/posts
And he is right on track with his strategy, which is to get third in Iowa.
***Nonsense. From Fred’s own words:
Thompson: “I Need to Come in Second”
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1946065/posts
Remember, this Intrade market is media-driven.
***Please prove this assertion.
The Efficacy Of Prediction Markets The Liberty Papers ^ |
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts
“Please prove this assertion.”
I can tell you it’s not driven by support for the most conservative candidate, and it parallels what I’m convinced is the media’s preference.
CBS news cannot be used as a source.
Not these ridiculous claims, not during the general election when focus is narrowed to two opposite candidates.
“Lazy” won’t work because he will be seen campaigning every day. “Too old” won’t work because many presidents in the past have been older.
So it’s just an opinion.
Unfortunately we will get neither due to this kind of thinking!
It’s a quote —from Fred — that goes directly against what you said was his strategy. You’re doing some kind of odd backtracking.
Thompson: “I Need to Come in Second”]
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>
I believe this was refuted by an eye-witness account by FReeper Iowa Granny.
I don’t find a post from Iowa Granny on that thread.
OK...cornfedcowboy...we expect a first hand report after the caucus.
FRED THOMPSON - NATIONAL SECURITY EXPERT (I’ll protect the American people and American values, whatever it takes to stop the Islamic-Fascists including water-boarding) - 2ND AMENDMENT ADVOCATE (’arming the People to disarm criminals and making available to the general populace superior weaponry to deal with domestic terrorists where ever and whenever they may be found)
INCREASE THE MILITARY’S STRENGTH AND SIZE (giving those brave men and women a Commander in Chief to be proud of)
SECURE AND SEAL THE BORDERS (don’t give sanctuary anywhere to illegal’s, don’t employ illegal’s, don’t rent to illegal’s, don’t extend credit to illegal’s, don’t give illegal’s rights they don’t deserve, report all crimes committed by illegal’s and deport those illegal’s who have already committed crimes against America)
LAW AND ORDER (enforcement first and foremost with laws currently on the books) – DENY FEDERAL DOLLARS TO SANCTUARY CITIES (enough is enough)
CONSERVATIVE JUSTICES FOR SUPREMES (those who will interpret the law, not create rights that do not exist) – PRO-LIFE ADVOCATE (nominate superior Constitutional Justices to overturn Roe vs Wade)
SOCIAL SECURITY REFORMER (reform a broken program that can’t sustain itself and will bankrupt future generations, with the added benefit of private savings accounts)
DEFEAT ANY DEMOCRAT AND RINO (any fool DemocRATS put up)
TAX SIMPLIFICATION (variety of choice for the tax payer)
WON’T PUT UP WITH CRAP FROM THE MSM (including stupid questions by moderators and pundits) –
“WE THE PEOPLE” CANDIDATE (We the People asked him to run and he stepped up) - PING!
It's just conventional wisdom quantified if you ask me.
I'm glad to hear that.
Congratulations on your new living room set!
There’s some pretty savvy investors, the ones who find a way to unload right at the end in the last few minutes.
1546 of 1781 Precincts Reporting - 87%
Name Party Votes Vote %
Huckabee, Mike GOP 35,621 34%
Romney, Mitt GOP 26,524 25%
Thompson, Fred GOP 13,932 13%
McCain, John GOP 13,693 13%
Paul, Ron GOP 10,184 10%
Giuliani, Rudy GOP 3,613 3%
Hunter, Duncan GOP 458 0%
Tancredo, Tom GOP 3 0%
Here’s what I posted.
REP.IOWA.HUCKABEE 33
REP.IOWA.ROMNEY 22
Duncan Hunter 12
REP.IOWA.MCCAIN 11
Ron Paul 9
REP.IOWA.THOMPSON(F) 8
REP.IOWA.GIULIANI 4
REP.IOWA.FIELD 1
If you subtract my wishful thinking for Hunter, I got pretty close on the order and even the percentages.
Well, congrats to the Huckabee supporters on their win. And also to Obama, glad to see Hildebeast knocked down a notch.
Huckabee has surged because he won a couple of debates and he’s got evangelical support. If a quick rise can happen to the liberal pro-life evangelical Huckster, it can happen to the conservative pro-life evangelical Hunter.
I do not know Duncan Hunter’s strategy. I was surprised that he chose not to campaign in Iowa. However, he may yet surprise us even before New Hampshire. Because he has campaigned in Wyoming, which has a race before New Hampshire, and no one else is campaigning there.
Wyoming to Hold Overlooked GOP Caucus Before New Hampshire
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1947693/posts
Then there’s New Hampshire. Hunter’s already there while everyone else wraps up in Iowa.
Thompson supporters are asking Hunterites to care about polls when they obviously don’t care that much about polls, and they’re asking Hucksterites to care about conservatism when it’s obvious that isn’t high on the Huck followers’ radar. Thompson is asking for both camps to care about the things they don’t care about.
Thompson’s promise was that by this time in the race he’d be kicking tootyfruityrudy to the curb, but instead he’s whining about Huckabee and barely beats McCain in Iowa, coming in 3rd when he said he needed to come in 2nd. And Intrade greeted this news with a 25 point rise in his dropout contract price.
The bible says something about “to whom much is given, much is required” and the parable of the talents shows that bigger results are expected from those to whom more is given. Thompson was given name recognition and money and the result is dropping polls and losing 30 points at Intrade. Time to give those resources to someone who has been much more frugal with what’s been given to him: Hunter.
I will vote for Thompson if he gets the nomination, but Hunter would make a better president. That’s what primaries are supposed to be about.
How did the charts predict the Iowa results?
For example, at the beginning of the day, both Huckabee and Obama had the highest futures contract price for winning the Iowa Caucus in their respective parties.
When the final official results came in last night, both Huckabee and Obama won. This is signified by a final contract price of 100 for the winning candidates, and a final contract price of 0 for all of the other candidates.
For the New Hampshire primary coming up next Tuesday, January 8, 2007, current InTrade futures contract prices predict a win for both McCain and Obama.
(Still getting used to writing 2008 instead of 2007.)
Both these interviews were done today. Once anyone listens to Neil Cavuto’s interview with Fred they would see the real conservative! I dare anyone to listen to this video and then try to show how any other Republican candidate is MORE conservative than Fred Thompson! Fred Thompson is the man we need in the White House! GO FRED!
http://www.blogsforfredthompson.com/msnbc-fred-thompson-addresses-post-iow
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.