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Ok. Here are the facts, as they stand right now - it's late, so bear with me. 1) Politico says that something big is coming in the morning, according to the McCain campaign. 2) Someone placed a massive short on Obama on Intrade in the last few hours. People who know more than I do about these matters say that we're talking about an amount of money in the range of $140,000. Those are what Donald Rumsfeld called "known knowns." We know two things - which may or may not be connected. The McCain people say they have news -...

McCain +4 and Obama -4 on Intrade today.

A snapshot of Intrade prices for various contracts was taken before and after the debate. It showed a mixed bag at the time. However, the CEO of Intrade has posted that there was a blatant market manipulation attempt to boost Obama's price. As a result of adjustments, what was a murky vision is now clear: Palin won big. This debate was unique at Intrade because there was a contract to trade based upon Intrade prices resulting after the debate. It was based upon my suggestion sent in to Intrade. ________________________________________________ 04/10/2008 02:04:27 Subject: Re:New Intrade VP Debate Contracts ko Director...

According to Intrade, Obama has a 63% chance of winning the election, vs. 37% for McCain. Here is one way of thinking about that. Suppose two baseball teams in the World Series are evenly matched (50% chance of winning each game), and team A wins the first game. The probability of team A winning the series becomes 21/32 or 65.63% . This can be shown by working backwards using a tree. For example, after 4 games, if team A has won 3 (2) games, it has a 7/8 (1/2) chance of winning the series. One can estimate the chance of...

US Congress to approve a government bailout of banks on/before 30 Sep 2008 Last Price: 17.6 \/40.4 The US Economy will go into Recession during 2008 Last Price: 13.0 \/ 7.0

Here’s my analysis of the debate results from Intrade, comparing pre- and post-debate numbers. McCain won handily with a 6.7 poing swing in his favor on the individual contracts at high volume. But there’s one glitch in the Electoral Votes on the front page of Intrade. McCain lost some ground there. Perhaps it is one of those contracts that lags the more emotional President.Individual contracts. New: McCain 227 — Obama 311 Old: McCain 232 — Obama 306 Change: +5 for Obama Electoral Votes on front page of Intrade. McCain losing ground? 2008 Presidential Election Winner (Individual) Contract 2008.PRES.OBAMA Barack Obama...

How in the H*LL can these numbers be so far apart considering what today's polls are showing? Something fishy's goin' on!!

Within the last couple of days, Intrade has posted a version of the electoral map that Momaw Nadon has been generating once a week. The map is now instantaneous. In the past few days we've seen some fast arbitrage opportunities between the state-to-state contracts that make up the electoral map and the actual presidential individual contracts. The state-to-state contracts used to lag the individual contracts by several days, but now they catch up relatively quickly, within one day. But there have been some wild swings lately, and we're in the middle of one now. So let's post arbitrage possibilities here...

http://play.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/common/c_cd.jsp?conDetailID=68350&z=1221412999781

McCain has gone from 35% to almost 54% in short period of time!!!!

For the first time in this election, Mccain has taken the lead on Intrade~~~~~~!!!!!!

It's so much fun reading the newspapers these days. The Sarah surge continues to dominate all the political news while the Palin-McCain — er, McCain-Palin — ticket is forging ahead in the polls.But let’s be fair. Even though Sen. McCain is now riding Gov. Palin’s skirt tails, he was the one who made the brilliant decision to put her on the ticket. And the louder the Left screams the better Sarah seems to do. So much better that for the first time the Intrade pay-to-play prediction market — which long has had Obama winning by 20 to 25 points in...

InTrade: McCain 51.0% - Obama 48.3%

FOR THE FIRST TIME, MCCAIN CROSSES 50% MARK.

Intrade Political 'Securities' Percentage US$ Traded John McCain to win 2008 US Presidential Election 49.3% $5.1M Barack Obama to win 2008 US Presidential Election 49.6% $3.7M

BIDEN.VP.WITHDRAWN Last Trade : 5.0 0.8

There are 5 contracts that I intend to examine to get a start on finding some kind of number to quantify Liberal Bias on Intrade. The first contract is 2008.PRES.CLINTON(H) which seems like it should have zero value. This gives a good glimpse at a baseline bias value. Taking into account the volume of the contract, bias might be expressed as Price * Volume of such a baseline contract. In this case it's 3.2 * 522834, but that's unnecessarily high because the volume is over the life of the contract. So I would use the volume since the convention ended,...

Look at the Intrade numbers that have been holding at roughtly 60/40 for Obama until two nights ago. Last night they took a 10 point shift. This is one of the most predictive indicators of anything. People put their money where their polling is.

Election 2008 Obama McCain Spread RCP National Average 45.7 46.7 McCain +1.0 Favorable Ratings +20.0 +18.2 Obama +1.8 Intrade Market Odds 50.1 49.5

Massive swing in Mccain's favor...

Lloyd Shepherd (late of Westmonster) has a very useful note on the fact that the media has obsessed on the poor nature of John McCain's often highly personal speech. Lloyd: "I’ve just finished reading Dan Kennedy on the media’s negative reaction to John McCain’s awful speech last night, and nowhere in it does he mention a very salient fact - that after the speech, Intrade’s price for McCain becoming president increased significantly, while Obama declined." He has the figures, so go over and check them out. They indicate something's moving below the short term weather system of the polls. As...

Will Joe Biden be removed from the Democratic ticket before the upcoming U.S. election? Also found on a search - Joe Biden to be withdrawn as Democratic VP candidate before 2008 presidential election

Now whose got yer Bounce, Baby Bama Baller?!? Dat B SARACUUUDAAHHHH!!!!!!

Intrade, an online prediction market based in Dublin, created a contract Tuesday morning on the likelihood that John McCain will drop Palin as his running mate. After opening at a probability of just 3%, the odds on Palin being cut from the ticket hovered around 14% yesterday. Predictions plateaued today at 10%, perhaps in response to yesterday's speeches by Fred Thompson and Joe Lieberman. Both praised the governor for her reformist qualities. Intrade is a place for betting enthusiasts to turn a small profit on everything from the latest auction of works by controversial British artist Damien Hirst to Britney...

An online prediction market weighs in on whether VP candidate Sarah Palin will be dropped from the Republican ticket. NEW YORK (Fortune) -- Now the Democrats aren't the only ones who can try to capitalize on the negative buzz growing around Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, the prospective Republican VP candidate. Intrade, an online prediction market based in Dublin, created a contract Tuesday morning on the likelihood that John McCain will drop Palin as his running mate. After opening at a probability of just 3%, the odds on Palin being cut from the ticket climbed to 18% around 9 a.m. and...

Online prediction market Intrade has launched a contract on the probability of Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin being dropped as John McCain’s running mate ahead of the November presidential election. Palin was named Friday as the Republican VP choice, surprising many political pundits, though she had emerged as the frontrunner on Intrade’s own VP market. - SNIP - ...put the probability of her withdrawal from the contest at 15% today, in the wake of news that the social conservative’s 17-year old daughter is pregnant. The news came as little-known Gov. Palin and her family are undergoing their first heavy scrutiny from...

Run the McCain contract ADVANCED GRAPH with chart type Candlestick which shows high-low-close information, on time period "Last Month" so you can see the fine recent detail. Sorry but the link won't choose those options for you, run the link first then make those selections and run it again: http://data.intrade.com/graphing/jsp/closingPricesForm.jsp?contractId=376101&tradeURL=https://www.intrade.com

I recently signed up on Intrade two days ago and I managed to turn my $70.00 investment into $397.00. I suck at anything money so I am not trying to impress anyone. It was a fluke as I purchase Palin stock and I lucked out. I was tempted to try my hand in another area but common sense prevailed and I cashed out. I am done there but it sure was fun for two days.

ABC News' Teddy Davis Reports: The Obama campaign signaled a willingness on Thursday to go after Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, R-Minn., for the 2007 Minneapolis bridge collapse while saying that the populist argument it is building against John McCain will continue even if the presumptive Republican nominee taps the son of a truck driver as his running mate. "I don't think it's particularly relevant who the running mate is if the running mate is willing to embrace in total the Bush-McCain economic doctrine," Obama strategist David Axelrod told ABC News. "Everyday Americans understand that those policies aren't working for them,"...

2008 US Election - 2008 Republican VP Nominee (others upon request)(expired at convention) Romney: 70.1 (+25.1) Pawlenty: 22 (-2.2) (as of 10:50 am ET)

According to Intrade http://www.intrade.com/ Obama is still a big favorite to win, with contracts for him trading at 60.5 vs. 38.4 for McCain. These are odds of winning as a percentage, *not* expected share of the popular vote. With the opinion polls tied, what explains this? Not being a Democrat, I am reluctant to dismiss the market. Romney for Republican VP contracts are trading at 58.8, with Pawlenty at 26.0 and Ridge at 9.5 .

Poll Will the controversy about Obama's Birth Certificate affect the Intrade Price? Yes, he could be ineligible to be president by the "natural born" rules 40% [ 2 ] No, it's a Tempest in a Teapot 60% [ 3 ] Total Votes : 5