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Keyword: intrade

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  • So You Think You're Smarter Than A CIA Agent

    04/02/2014 9:55:23 PM PDT · by Theoria · 58 replies
    NPR ^ | 02 April 2014 | Alix Spiegel
    The morning I met Elaine Rich, she was sitting at the kitchen table of her small town home in suburban Maryland trying to estimate refugee flows in Syria.It wasn't the only question she was considering; there were others:Will North Korea launch a new multistage missile before May 10, 2014?Will Russian armed forces enter Kharkiv, Ukraine, by May 10? Rich's answers to these questions would eventually be evaluated by the intelligence community, but she didn't feel much pressure because this wasn't her full-time gig."I'm just a pharmacist," she said. "Nobody cares about me, nobody knows my name, I don't have a...
  • New Jersey Opens Up for Online Gambling

    11/26/2013 6:58:01 PM PST · by Libloather · 5 replies
    NY Times ^ | 11/26/13 | KATE ZERNIKE
    New Jersey began allowing Internet gambling on Tuesday in a much-watched bet that there are untapped sources of revenue on bedside iPads and cubicle desktops, and even among people checking their phones while they wait in line for coffee. Gambling analysts say it is the most significant development since casinos opened in Atlantic City over three decades ago, ultimately setting off what became a furious competition among states for a share of the take.
  • ceases trading activity

    03/10/2013 3:49:28 PM PDT · by OL Hickory · 25 replies
    Intrade ^ | 03/10/2012 | The Board of Directors of Intrade the Prediction Market Limited
    With sincere regret we must inform you that due to circumstances recently discovered we must immediately cease trading activity on
  • No Regulation? No Problem

    01/02/2013 4:15:04 AM PST · by Kaslin · 7 replies ^ | January 2, 2013 | John Stossel
    In the short time since President Obama was re-elected, government has issued hundreds of new regulations. The bureaucrats never stop. There are now more than 170,000 pages of federal regulations. President Obama wants still more rules. Cheering on increased financial regulation, he said, "We've got to keep moving forward." To the president, and probably most Americans, "forward" means passing more laws. It is scary to think about a world without regulation. Intuition leads us to think that without government we'd be victims of fraud, as I explain in my latest book, "No, They Can't!" But our intuition is wrong. Consider...
  • All Bets Are Off! Intrade Cuts Off US Customers

    11/27/2012 4:45:37 AM PST · by ExxonPatrolUs · 8 replies
    CNBC ^ | 11-27 | Reuters
    Prediction market Intrade, which allows spectators to bet on subjects ranging from entertainment to elections, said on Monday it will no longer accept U.S. customers because of what it called legal and regulatory pressures. Intrade, based in Dublin, Ireland, announced the decision on its website hours after the U.S. commodities regulator sued the exchange's owner, alleging it allowed unauthorized trading by U.S. customers. U.S. customers must close their accounts and withdraw all funds by the end of the year, according to the statement. "We understand this announcement may come as a surprise and a disappointment, and we apologize for the...
  • In a surprise move, Intrade shuts down for U.S. Traders

    11/26/2012 4:02:16 PM PST · by Nachum · 16 replies
    The Daily Caller ^ | 11/26/12 | Alexis Levinson
    Intrade, the futures trading website, will no longer be available to residents of the United States as a result of “legal and regulatory pressures,” the Dublin, Ireland-based site announced Monday. The website allows people to buy and sell shares in possible outcomes. For example, before Election Day, users could buy shares that President Barack Obama would be re-elected. Those who did were paid out for those shares when Obama defeated Mitt Romney. Users who held shares in Romney becoming president lost money on those shares. “We are sorry to announce that due to legal and regulatory pressures, Intrade can no...
  • Intrade Violates the CFTC’s Off-Exchange Options Trading Ban

    11/26/2012 12:05:07 PM PST · by ExxonPatrolUs · 3 replies
    CFTC Press Release ^ | November 26, 2012 | Dennis Holden (Media Contact)
    Washington, DC – The U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) today filed a civil complaint in federal district court in Washington, DC, charging Intrade The Prediction Market Limited (Intrade) and Trade Exchange Network Limited (TEN), Irish companies based in Dublin, Ireland, with offering commodity option contracts to U.S. customers for trading, as well as soliciting, accepting, and confirming the execution of orders from U.S. customers, all in violation of the CFTC’s ban on off-exchange options trading. The CFTC’s complaint also charges Intrade and TEN with making false statements concerning their options trading website in documents filed with the CFTC, and...
  • Refreshing Intrade Page!

    11/06/2012 2:03:04 PM PST · by LRoggy · 6 replies
    Intrade Website ^ | 11/6/12 | LRoggy
    Obama slipping!!
  • Question on Intrade

    11/04/2012 9:33:22 PM PST · by freedomrings69 · 25 replies
    self | 11/04/2012 | self/vanity
    If polls and commentators such as Barone and Morris are correct and Romney is going to win big then Intrade is way off. Is there any precedent for Intrade showing such off results this close to an election? I know in 2004 after phony exit polls were released they had Kerry way up, but right now I see no published items that would indicate traders using real money should be so heavy for Obama. Some have said Intrade is being manipulated but is there any precedent for that?
  • Ledge-Jumpers and Eeyores: 3 remaining worries

    11/01/2012 12:10:36 PM PDT · by vonkayel · 52 replies
    Ok...I'm a recovering pessimist. I actually think Romney's going to win this thing, and possibly win it by a larger margin than most pollsters and pundits are predicting. The national election seems to have stabilized into a 50-47 pattern that is unlikely to change barring some major news event or scandal over the weekend. But I still have a little bit of Eeyore in me, and there are three things that worry me: 1. Nate Silver This whiny turd with his hyperconfident "78.9 chance Obama wins" line is the biggest burr in my saddle. Unlike many, I'm not that impressed...
  • Intrade presidential election markets -- Obama ahead even in the popular vote?

    10/30/2012 2:36:05 PM PDT · by reaganaut1 · 56 replies
    vanity | October 30, 2012 | me
    It's tough to be objective in forecasting the presidential election, but based on the polls I have read about, I think Romney has a close to 50% change of winning. Intrade currently estimates Obama has a 63% chance of winning the election and a 62% chance of winning the popular vote by 0.5% or more. The popular vote market surprises me. Romney is slightly ahead in most national polls. I don't want to be paranoid, but are people trying to manipulate the Intrade market to demoralize Republicans?
  • Romney Will Lose If He Continues To Play It Safe

    10/26/2012 4:28:18 PM PDT · by not romney · 146 replies
    Rightwing Wing Nuts Blog ^ | 10/26/12 | John Alan
    If you only listen to Fox News and Rush Limbaugh you believe Romney is winning. He's not, he's losing. Both Real Clear Politics and Intrade have Obama with 281 electoral votes with 11 days til the election. You only need 270 to win. Intrade predicted every state correctly in 2004 and had two states reversed in 2008. Move your cursor over each state "click here" to see the candidates chance of winning. Notice Virginia has moved back toward Obama and has more chance of going for Obama than Ohio does of going for Romney. There have been a lot of...
  • Another Obama InTrade Crash (Now approaching low 50's)

    10/24/2012 7:43:24 AM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 12 replies
    Business Insider ^ | 10/24/2012 | Joe Weisenthal
    Yesterday morning, a few hours after the debate, Obama crashed on InTrade, from around 61 to 57.Last night? Another one. He briefly crashed to 51, before stabilizing where he is now in the mid-50s.There is some talk that there was some speculative manipulation attack. Who knows. But for people who keep score on this, Obama is dropping like a stone.
  • Intrade: Obama Share Value Continues to Collapse (Vanity)

    10/23/2012 2:22:05 PM PDT · by tatown · 9 replies
    Intrade ^ | 10/23 | tatown
    Current: Obama 56.9, Romney 43.1

    10/23/2012 8:53:26 AM PDT · by blam · 12 replies
    TBI ^ | 10-23-2012 | Joe Weisenthal
    TODAY'S REAL CRASH: BARACK OBAMA IS CRASHING ON INTRADE Joe WeisenthalOct. 23, 2012, 10:11 AM Along with the market being down... Obama down to 57.(The DJIA is down 257 as I post this article)

    10/23/2012 7:51:00 AM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 27 replies
    Business Insider ^ | 10/23/2012 | Joe Weisenthal
    Along with the market being down... Obama down to 57!!
  • Intrade - Obama share price is collapsing (vanity)

    10/22/2012 4:29:49 PM PDT · by tatown · 6 replies
    Intrade ^ | 10/22 | Intrade
    Was just over at Intrade and noticed Obama's share price is down 5.5% at 5.81. It been a while since it was this low. I guess the European gamblers are cash in their chips.
  • Romney is trading sporadically above 40 on Intrade with light volume

    10/22/2012 12:52:52 PM PDT · by RoosterRedux · 18 replies ^ | 10/22/2012
    I set the Intrade alarm to notify me when he trades above 40 and it is interesting to note that 90 lots traded at 40.9. Most volume is very light however.
  • Vanity - What is going on over at Intrade (10/21)?

    10/21/2012 11:21:55 AM PDT · by Perdogg · 33 replies
    I apologize for the vanity, but I do not really know much about Intrade. I know it is called a "Prediction" site, which is a fancy legalistic word for gambling. I am assuming US law prohibits Americans from participating. 1. Today - New Hampshire and Alaska are considered toss up 2. Yesterday Colorado was toss up now leans Romney. 3. Friday - Ohio was shifting between toss up and Lean Obama. In all of this Obama keeps flucuating between 60 and 61.5%. Once he hits 60% he goes up. I don't understand how all of this works. It does not...
  • NATE SILVER: Obama's Odds Of Winning Have Climbed Back To 66%

    10/18/2012 7:32:56 AM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 54 replies
    Business Insider ^ | 10/18/2012 | Henry Blodget
    Obama's odds of winning re-election have climbed back to 65%-70% since the second debate, according to three sources we're tracking: Nate Silver's aggregate poll forecastIntrade's prediction marketBetfair's prediction market First, Nate Silver of the New York Times now gives Obama 66% chance of reelection. That's up from a post-first-debate low of ~60% a few days ago. And Silver says the impact of Obama's strong performance in the second debate hasn't yet factored into the polls he looks at. Nate Silver, New York Times  On Intrade, meanwhile, Obama's odds have climbed back to 65% from a post-debate low in the high...
  • Intrade O-61.5/R-38.5 (vanity)

    10/14/2012 9:27:04 AM PDT · by tatown · 29 replies
    Intrade ^ | 10/14 | Intrade
  • Is Intrade Really a Valuable Predictor?

    10/13/2012 12:53:43 AM PDT · by GonzoII · 18 replies
    American Catholic ^ | Thursday, October 11, 2012 A.D. | Paul Zummo
    Is Intrade Really a Valuable Predictor? Published Thursday, October 11, 2012 A.D. | By Paul Zummo Intrade is an online trading platform where participants actually place (legal) bets on the outcomes of certain events. For close to a decade political pundits have been using it as a reference to predict election outcomes. Indeed it seems to have a good record, correctly predicting the outcomes of the 2004 and 2008 presidential elections, and getting all but two states correct in 2008. Currently, Intrade gives Barack Obama a 62.4% chance to win re-election.So is Intrade a valuable resource that can be relied...
  • Intrade O62%/R38% (vanity)

    10/10/2012 11:25:05 AM PDT · by tatown · 51 replies
    tatown | 10/10 | tatown
    With the race obviously trending to Romney in a very strong way, how in the heck can Intrade still be showing Obama as a 3 to 2 favorite?? Unless I'm looking at things through total rose colored glasses, it makes no sense!
  • Obama Keeps Tanking On Intrade (Debate aftermath)

    10/04/2012 7:24:03 AM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 3 replies
    Business Insider ^ | 10/04/2012 | Joe Weisenthal
    Now down to 65%. He lost about 8 points during last night's debate, and has lost a couple more today. He was around 80% a couple of days ago.
  • Intrade; Will Romney Get A Bounce?

    10/04/2012 12:27:54 AM PDT · by Obama_Is_Sabotaging_America · 20 replies
    Intrade ^ | October 03, 2012 | Obama_Is_Sabotaging_America
    Here's the shares percentage on Intrade for Obama and Romney PRIOR to their 1st Presidential Debate:
  • Obama free falling on Intrade

    10/03/2012 8:35:23 PM PDT · by erod · 12 replies
    Forex ^ | 10/3/12 | Forex
    Want to know how the debate is going? Check out Intrade, which is a market-based betting site. Obama is down to a 67% chance of winning the presidency, compared to 76.5% before the debate
  • Intrade Odds 79.0 Obama 20.6 Romney

    09/28/2012 11:24:51 AM PDT · by stocksthatgoup · 117 replies
    Intrade ^ | Current | Intrade
    Obama 79 Romney 21
  • Intrade (Vanity)

    09/18/2012 9:11:50 AM PDT · by tatown · 16 replies
    Intrade ^ | 9/18/12 | Intrade
    Obama - 68.0% Mitt - 32.5%
  • Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012 (Intrade)

    09/14/2012 12:56:16 PM PDT · by pabianice · 33 replies
    Intrade ^ | 9/14/12
    66.9% chance. Today's change: up $.21 to $66.9
  • Has anyone here ever used INTRADE?

    09/13/2012 3:14:17 PM PDT · by Hildy · 15 replies
    Sept. 13, 2012 | Hildy
    I cannot believe the odds they have for Presidential election. I just want to make sure they are totally legit and have history of paying out and it's all legal, right?
  • 2012 President - Likelihood of Victory

    08/28/2012 10:45:27 AM PDT · by justlittleoleme · 33 replies ^ | 08/28/12 | PredictWise
    Currently Intrade is at: Obummer: 55.8% Romney: 43.7%
  • Romney Stock Vs. Obama Stock - based JUST on the charts, which would you buy?

    08/26/2012 6:30:55 PM PDT · by zencycler · 10 replies
    Self + Intrade Charts | 8/26/2012 | Self
    Just imagine you were looking at the charts on two different stocks, and deciding which one to buy. Here are the charts: ================================================ Stock BOJB: ================================================ Stock MRPR: ================================================ Now I'm no expert at charting stocks, but I'd say BOJB has gone as high as it will ever go, and looks ready for a drop, while MRPR hit a plateau after a nice run up, and looks ready to breakout soon!
  • Colorado Algorithm Predicts a Romney Triumph

    08/25/2012 5:24:34 AM PDT · by morethanright · 24 replies
    Tea Party Tribune ^ | 2012-08-24 15:39:07 | mrcurmudgeon
    By Mr. Curmudgeon:Computers at the University of Colorado have crunched data from all fifty states and are picking a winner in the 2012 presidential race - Republican Mitt Romney. Before you dismiss the computer's binary conclusion as wishful thinking, the same program has accurately predicted presidential winners beginning with Ronald Reagan's stunning and satisfying victory over Jimmy Carter in 1980. If that is not impressive enough for you, the program also predicted that in the election of 2000, Al Gore would win the popular vote but lose to George W. Bush in the Electoral College.If you happen to reside in...
  • Two Powerful Predictive Markets Say the Election is Settled

    08/24/2012 2:30:23 PM PDT · by SeekAndFind · 13 replies
    Wyatt Research ^ | 08/24/2012 | Ian Wyatt
    This past Monday, one of our research analysts - Jason Cimpl - caused quite a buzz on our Web site, as well as in our office, with a provocative article on the November presidential election.  I thought it important to follow up Jason's insights from an alternative prospective … one where speculators put their money directly at risk on election outcomes.  Let's face it, polls are meaningless. The questions are leading and the polls themselves are often commissioned by the two major political parties. Each party is motivated to put its candidates in a favorable light, so party-commissioned polls will...
  • New InTrade Identification Requirements

    08/13/2012 11:03:21 AM PDT · by catnipman · 9 replies
    intrade ^ | 8/12/2012 | intrade
    Changes have been made to the money laundering regulations in Ireland under the Criminal Justice (Money Laundering and Terrorist Financing) Act of 2010. Intrade is now legally obligated to know more about our customers and to comply with the customer due diligence requirements set out in the Act we require all current and future Intrade customers to provide the following: Proof of identity in the form of passport or drivers license (must include photo) Two proofs of address in the form of utility bills, bank statements, recent tax or insurance statements or certificates etc. (must show your residential address, not...
  • Intrade moving towards Romney (vanity)

    08/13/2012 10:19:54 AM PDT · by tatown · 4 replies
    Intrade ^ | 8/13/2012 | Intrade
    Current: Obama 56.8, Romney 42.0 Just prior to Ryan pick, the numbers were about 62.0 Obama, and 37.0 Romney. The numbers have been moving steadily in Romney's direction since the Ryan pick.
  • attn: Freepers Its time to start watching Intrade.

    05/15/2012 3:15:17 PM PDT · by mamelukesabre · 84 replies
    Obama appears to have started his freefall. It started today.
  • Romney hits 76% on Intrade [Troll hits 100% on zot capacitor]

    12/29/2011 5:03:28 PM PST · by SonofReagan · 386 replies · 3+ views
    Intrade ^ | 12/29/2011 | Intrade
    Time to close ranks behind Romney. He will beat Obama.
  • Newt Crashes, Romney Soars On InTrade

    12/17/2011 4:00:51 PM PST · by Halfmanhalfamazing · 51 replies
    Business Insider ^ | December 15th | Zeke Miller
    Newt Gingrich's fortunes on the prediction betting website InTrade have collapsed in the past three days, amid an unrelenting assault from all sides in the Republican field. After pushing close to 40 percent on the site, he's down to a 16.5 percent chance of winning the nomination. Mitt Romney, who fell as low as 42 percent on the site last week, is back up to 64 percent. The radical swing is a reflection of the growing unease on all sides about Gingrich's viability as the nominee - and recent polling showing that Gingrich's rise to the top in Iowa was...
  • Romney Is Collapsing On InTrade, And Is Now Below 50%

    11/29/2011 2:18:04 PM PST · by TBBT · 19 replies · 1+ views
    businessinsider ^ | 11/29/2011 | Zeke Miller
    Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has fallen below 50 percent on InTrade for the first time since the beginning of October, as former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich has seen his fortunes on the prediction market rise. A trade at 7:28 this morning valued Romney as having just a 49.3 percent chance to win the GOP nomination. He peaked at over a 70 percent chance at the beginning of November, amid Herman Cain's collapse in the polls.
  • The Case for Buying Low on Perry

    09/24/2011 6:37:39 AM PDT · by TexasFreeper2009 · 55 replies
    FiveThirtyEight ^ | 9/24/11 | Nate Silver
    One misconception is that Mr. Perry’s standing had been declining in primary polls prior to Thursday evening. This simply isn’t the case, at least not to any degree of statistical significance.
  • 2012 Presidential Election (Barkie Below 50% on Intrade)

    08/12/2011 10:38:27 AM PDT · by redfog · 9 replies
    Intrade ^ | 8/12/2011 | Intrade
    Barack Obama to be re-elected President in 2012: 49.6%
  • Romney and Perry : Dual Front-Runners?(Perry tops Romney at Intrade)

    07/26/2011 9:53:53 PM PDT · by Clairity · 26 replies · 1+ views
    New York Times ^ | July 26, 2011 | Nate Silver
    At the betting market Intrade, Texas Gov. Rick Perry has overtaken Mitt Romney and is now considered the most likely person to win the Republican presidential contest. Mr. Perry is given a 35 percent chance of claiming the nomination as compared to Mr. Romney at 29 percent; Michelle Bachmann is a distant third place and assigned a 9 percent chance of winning.
  • Among bettors, Perry now bests Romney for 2012 nod

    07/21/2011 11:06:18 PM PDT · by Rick_Michael · 17 replies
    News-futures website Intrade...Mr. Perry’s nomination odds reached a high of 33 percent Thursday morning, eclipsing Mr. Romney for the first time. Mr. Romney, trading at 32 percent,..... Mrs. Bachmann’s odds have dropped from highs of 22 percent a few days ago to slightly less than 10 percent after a report by the Daily Caller revealed that she suffered from debilitating migraines.... Bettors give President Obama a 57 percent chance of getting re-elected
  • The Republicans to control the Senate after 2012 Congressional Elections

    07/17/2011 10:14:45 AM PDT · by astuddis · 73 replies
    72.7% chance
  • Intrade Founder John Delaney Dies On Mt. Everest

    05/26/2011 8:31:11 PM PDT · by grey_whiskers · 171 replies · 1+ views
    Business Insider ^ | 05-24-2011 | Dan Frommer
    John Delaney, founder and CEO of Intrade, the prediction market, has died while trying to climb Mt. Everest. He was less than 50 meters from the top, according to the Daily Mail. Read more:
  • What is Intrade saying about the 2012 GOP race?

    03/03/2011 10:58:16 AM PST · by Artemis Webb · 39 replies
    Intrade ^ | 030311 | Intrade
    I was curious what Intrade was saying about the 2012 GOP race. So I've listed who they are favoring for both the presidential and VP nominations. I am not listing anybody with less than a 4% chance. In descending order: Mitt Romney 25% Tim Pawlenty 12.3% Mitch Daniels 10.9% Mike Huckabee 8.3% Newt Gingrich 6% Sarah Palin 5.5% Jon Huntsman 4.3% Michele Bachmann 4.1% ------------------------------------- For VP: Marco Rubio 24.9% Mike Pence 19.9% Chris Christie 15% John Thune 13% Bobby Jindal 9.8% Sarah Palin 9% Mike Huckabee 7.9% Tim Pawlenty 7.5% Scott Brown 7% Paul Ryan 7% Bob McDonnell 5.5%...
  • CoD surging on Intrade (Vanity)

    11/02/2010 10:05:34 AM PDT · by library user · 120 replies ^ | 11/02/2010 | ,
    A few hours ago Christine was trading @ $7 / share on intrade. Now she's up to $15 / share. Biggest jump (more than 100%) on any political race/outcome on intrade today, thus far.
  • Intrade Betting Dems Lose The Senate

    10/31/2010 9:52:48 AM PDT · by redfog · 18 replies
    Intrade ^ | October 31, 2010
    Prediction market: The Democrats to control the Senate after 2010 Congressional Elections: Last price: 48.9
  • Intrade: DE-Sen trading at 20

    09/16/2010 1:04:31 PM PDT · by UndauntedR · 20 replies
    Intrade ^ | Sep 16
    Before the primary, this was trading around 85. With O'Donnell, it is now trading at 20. She has a lot of ground to make up.