Skip to comments.Question on Intrade
Posted on 11/04/2012 9:33:22 PM PST by freedomrings69
If polls and commentators such as Barone and Morris are correct and Romney is going to win big then Intrade is way off. Is there any precedent for Intrade showing such off results this close to an election? I know in 2004 after phony exit polls were released they had Kerry way up, but right now I see no published items that would indicate traders using real money should be so heavy for Obama. Some have said Intrade is being manipulated but is there any precedent for that?
I just did a search on here only using Intrade as the search and there are a few recent threads on here that have some interesting theories and discussions. Did it about an hour ago.
I was curious myself.
Two words. Obamacare ruling.
Remember, InTrade’s values are based entirely on what “shares” people are buying. Note that there was a huge spike in the Zer0’s “price” a month or so ago. My guess is people are pumping the stock so they can dump it in the next day or so before Zer0 craters at the polls. Most of the time, “crowdsourced” predictions are pretty accurate, but there’s a lot of subjective emotion around presidential candidates in general and this one in particular.
This is a gambling site and as such, US folks cannot participate.
If you have Europe and Asia speculating, I see how they get the results.
If I can legally get in on this, let me know how to do it.
I could use a few dollars.
This concept might give you some useful perspective:
Intrade was accurate on the 2008 presidential election and the 2010 house elections. In the latter, Intrade predicted a Republican pickup of 60 vs the actual pickup of 62. This year it’s Obama all the way again.
But of course it’s hard to judge the accuracy of a probabilistic prediction. Intrade is only giving Obama a 65% probability, so there’s still a 35% probability that he’ll lose. Roughly speaking, the probability figure means that in 100 situations “just like” the current one, the candidate with the type of evidence associated with Obama will win. The true result for 2012 is either Obama or not Obama.
The Intrade probability for Obama will continue to migrate to either 1 or 0 as we get closer to the actual results being determined (whenever that is).
I’ve just been reading some of the comments on the Intrade Obama bet. “magic kingdom”, whoever he is, rocks. The inane opposing comments indicate that it’s knuckleheads supporting the Obama side of the bet.
From the reading I did you cannot fund your intrade account from an American bank. I guess if you had a foreign bank account, in a country that did not have similar rules, you could fund it. What about the University in Iowa that has futures trading on political events? Is that closed to Americans?
Due to work regulations, I cannot have a foreign bank account.
I do not know if the Iowa thing is happening this cycle.
Ha, yeah. I’ve been tracking the comments too and liked some of what magic kingdom has been saying.
You won't be able to gamble this time around however because they don't take credit cards or paypal from Americans... you have to send them a check through the mail.
As far as their accuracy on presidential elections... for the price of a couple of local TV ads their predictions can be easily manipulated. Plus you have to look at who the majority of “investors” actually are. Most of them are likely Europeans from socialist countries who favor Obama by a wide margin. So although they may be accurate on some things... I wouldn't lose a lot of sleep over their “predictions” for this election.
Clearly the amount of money involved would be pocket change to a Soros who wanted to manipulate. The only question is why is this the first time he (or whoever) would have done it?
Most of the predictions are only going to be as good as the available public info, such as polls and what not, much of which have been contradictory and/or non-representative. Though regardless, there’s more than enough ‘evidence’ out therealbeit of questionable epistemic worthto cherry-pick whatever’s favorable to one’s biases.
I do imagine there’s at least a handful of investors on there with inside information from private polls, etc. who know the real score, but you won’t see any drastic movement in price from them until the last minute IMO.
Intrade predicted Sharon Angle would crush Harry Reid.
Does anyone know if it is allowed to “short” on intrade?
I suspect they don’t. If they did, if someone is pumping up 0bama’s odds as is strongly suspected, if shorting were allowed, smart money would take that side of the trade. That and also how delusional the Europeans are with their leftist bias.
Wouldn’t buying Romney shares be the same thing as shorting Obama shares?
I've read better stuff in the British Guardian than I have in most of the big U.S. papers and its staff is slightly to the left of Trotsky. If the staff of the NY Times decides to decline its status as a partner in government and become journalists again, that could change, but I'm sure not holding my breath.
Someone is going to have EGG on their face on Wednesday morning..did everyone forget about the Colorado study that predicted a big victory based on economic numbers that even predicted the Gore popular vote victory and the Bush EV victory in 2000?...someone is going to be very very wrong..I was just curious and was looking around and found that there were poll in HAWAII in 2004 that had Bush up and even the RCP average had Bush up..Kerry won by 10 points!
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