Fred knows what he has to do to win. (He’s never lost an election.) And he is right on track with his strategy, which is to get third in Iowa. Probably even ahead of it.
Fred will do much better than expected. The media have overplayed their hand and set up lowered expectations, just like they have in the past with Bush.
The media consistently defeat themselves.
Fred Thompson consistently comes through for conservatives.
A significant number of Republicans will not vote for Giuliani, Romney, Huckabee or McCain, as evidenced by the level of passionate comments against these candidates in the blogosphere. Whether it’s 5% or 25% of total Republican votes, it will be enough to lose.
However, if Thompson is the nominee, all Republicans will vote for him, because he has no significant policy or ideological negatives. Thompson will unite the party like Reagan did, even bringing in many Reagan Democrats.
Fred is the best shot we have at keeping the White House.
Remember, this Intrade market is media-driven.
Follow the money
Okay, what do the charts mean?
Looks like the results of a polygraph test to me.
Wow, thanks a bundle for posting this thread!
since Rasmussen started posting “prediction market” results, the new front runner is... McCain.
Rasmussen has started using Intrade results.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1945852/posts
They openly admit that the data for Iowa between Christmas and New Year’s is unreliable: “Rasmussen Reports has not conducted polling in Iowa between Christmas and New Years. We have doubts about the ability to obtain reliable results during that time frame.”
Snapshot from Intrade:
2008 Republican Presidential Nominee
2008.GOP.NOM.MCCAIN 27.7
2008.GOP.NOM.ROMNEY 21.0
2008.GOP.NOM.GIULIANI 22.5
2008.GOP.NOM.HUCKABEE 12.0
2008.GOP.NOM.PAUL 7.5
2008.GOP.NOM.THOMPSON(F)3.3
2008.GOP.NOM.HUNTER 0.1
Basically, it’s a wide open race, with the lead changing on a weekly basis. Might as well support the true conservative, Hunter.
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The Efficacy Of Prediction Markets The Liberty Papers ^ |
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts
According to Intrade, the winner of the December 12th GOP debate was... Duncan Hunter.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1938773/posts
Why the smart money is on Duncan Hunter
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1926032/posts
It's just conventional wisdom quantified if you ask me.
There’s some pretty savvy investors, the ones who find a way to unload right at the end in the last few minutes.
1546 of 1781 Precincts Reporting - 87%
Name Party Votes Vote %
Huckabee, Mike GOP 35,621 34%
Romney, Mitt GOP 26,524 25%
Thompson, Fred GOP 13,932 13%
McCain, John GOP 13,693 13%
Paul, Ron GOP 10,184 10%
Giuliani, Rudy GOP 3,613 3%
Hunter, Duncan GOP 458 0%
Tancredo, Tom GOP 3 0%
Here’s what I posted.
REP.IOWA.HUCKABEE 33
REP.IOWA.ROMNEY 22
Duncan Hunter 12
REP.IOWA.MCCAIN 11
Ron Paul 9
REP.IOWA.THOMPSON(F) 8
REP.IOWA.GIULIANI 4
REP.IOWA.FIELD 1
If you subtract my wishful thinking for Hunter, I got pretty close on the order and even the percentages.
Well, congrats to the Huckabee supporters on their win. And also to Obama, glad to see Hildebeast knocked down a notch.
Huckabee has surged because he won a couple of debates and he’s got evangelical support. If a quick rise can happen to the liberal pro-life evangelical Huckster, it can happen to the conservative pro-life evangelical Hunter.
I do not know Duncan Hunter’s strategy. I was surprised that he chose not to campaign in Iowa. However, he may yet surprise us even before New Hampshire. Because he has campaigned in Wyoming, which has a race before New Hampshire, and no one else is campaigning there.
Wyoming to Hold Overlooked GOP Caucus Before New Hampshire
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1947693/posts
Then there’s New Hampshire. Hunter’s already there while everyone else wraps up in Iowa.
Thompson supporters are asking Hunterites to care about polls when they obviously don’t care that much about polls, and they’re asking Hucksterites to care about conservatism when it’s obvious that isn’t high on the Huck followers’ radar. Thompson is asking for both camps to care about the things they don’t care about.
Thompson’s promise was that by this time in the race he’d be kicking tootyfruityrudy to the curb, but instead he’s whining about Huckabee and barely beats McCain in Iowa, coming in 3rd when he said he needed to come in 2nd. And Intrade greeted this news with a 25 point rise in his dropout contract price.
The bible says something about “to whom much is given, much is required” and the parable of the talents shows that bigger results are expected from those to whom more is given. Thompson was given name recognition and money and the result is dropping polls and losing 30 points at Intrade. Time to give those resources to someone who has been much more frugal with what’s been given to him: Hunter.
I will vote for Thompson if he gets the nomination, but Hunter would make a better president. That’s what primaries are supposed to be about.