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LIVE THREAD - Iowa Caucus InTrade Prices
InTrade ^ | Thursday, January 3, 2007 | InTrade

Posted on 01/03/2008 9:01:51 AM PST by Momaw Nadon

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To: reasonisfaith

And he is right on track with his strategy, which is to get third in Iowa.
***Nonsense. From Fred’s own words:

Thompson: “I Need to Come in Second”
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1946065/posts


21 posted on 01/03/2008 11:11:15 AM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: reasonisfaith

Remember, this Intrade market is media-driven.
***Please prove this assertion.

The Efficacy Of Prediction Markets The Liberty Papers ^ |
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1922961/posts


22 posted on 01/03/2008 11:13:45 AM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Kevmo

“Please prove this assertion.”

I can tell you it’s not driven by support for the most conservative candidate, and it parallels what I’m convinced is the media’s preference.


23 posted on 01/03/2008 12:18:47 PM PST by reasonisfaith (Donating to Fred Thompson is the antidote to media bias.)
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To: Kevmo

CBS news cannot be used as a source.


24 posted on 01/03/2008 12:20:54 PM PST by reasonisfaith (Donating to Fred Thompson is the antidote to media bias.)
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To: Vigilanteman

Not these ridiculous claims, not during the general election when focus is narrowed to two opposite candidates.

“Lazy” won’t work because he will be seen campaigning every day. “Too old” won’t work because many presidents in the past have been older.


25 posted on 01/03/2008 12:25:19 PM PST by reasonisfaith (Donating to Fred Thompson is the antidote to media bias.)
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To: reasonisfaith

So it’s just an opinion.


26 posted on 01/03/2008 12:36:57 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Momaw Nadon

Unfortunately we will get neither due to this kind of thinking!


27 posted on 01/03/2008 12:38:27 PM PST by statered ("And you know what I mean.")
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To: reasonisfaith

It’s a quote —from Fred — that goes directly against what you said was his strategy. You’re doing some kind of odd backtracking.


28 posted on 01/03/2008 12:39:51 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Kevmo; Iowa Granny
[***Nonsense. From Fred’s own words:

Thompson: “I Need to Come in Second”]

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

I believe this was refuted by an eye-witness account by FReeper Iowa Granny.

29 posted on 01/03/2008 2:42:14 PM PST by Col Freeper
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To: Col Freeper; Iowa Granny

I don’t find a post from Iowa Granny on that thread.


30 posted on 01/03/2008 2:56:58 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: cornfedcowboy

OK...cornfedcowboy...we expect a first hand report after the caucus.

FRED THOMPSON - NATIONAL SECURITY EXPERT (I’ll protect the American people and American values, whatever it takes to stop the Islamic-Fascists including water-boarding) - 2ND AMENDMENT ADVOCATE (’arming the People to disarm criminals and making available to the general populace superior weaponry to deal with domestic terrorists where ever and whenever they may be found)

INCREASE THE MILITARY’S STRENGTH AND SIZE (giving those brave men and women a Commander in Chief to be proud of)

SECURE AND SEAL THE BORDERS (don’t give sanctuary anywhere to illegal’s, don’t employ illegal’s, don’t rent to illegal’s, don’t extend credit to illegal’s, don’t give illegal’s rights they don’t deserve, report all crimes committed by illegal’s and deport those illegal’s who have already committed crimes against America)

LAW AND ORDER (enforcement first and foremost with laws currently on the books) – DENY FEDERAL DOLLARS TO SANCTUARY CITIES (enough is enough)

CONSERVATIVE JUSTICES FOR SUPREMES (those who will interpret the law, not create rights that do not exist) – PRO-LIFE ADVOCATE (nominate superior Constitutional Justices to overturn Roe vs Wade)

SOCIAL SECURITY REFORMER (reform a broken program that can’t sustain itself and will bankrupt future generations, with the added benefit of private savings accounts)

DEFEAT ANY DEMOCRAT AND RINO (any fool DemocRATS put up)

TAX SIMPLIFICATION (variety of choice for the tax payer)

WON’T PUT UP WITH CRAP FROM THE MSM (including stupid questions by moderators and pundits) –

“WE THE PEOPLE” CANDIDATE (We the People asked him to run and he stepped up) - PING!


31 posted on 01/03/2008 3:23:42 PM PST by Bobbisox (ALL AMERICAN FredHead FREEPER! [FRED THOMPSON will make an amazing Commander in Chief!])
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To: Momaw Nadon
FWIW - After the exit polls in 2004 showed Kerry winning. I figured that that possibly just could not be correct so I bought a couple of hundred bucks of 'Bush futures' and then, thanks to those exit polls, bought a new living room set.

It's just conventional wisdom quantified if you ask me.

32 posted on 01/03/2008 4:11:49 PM PST by Mensius
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To: Mensius
I bought a couple of hundred bucks of 'Bush futures' and then, thanks to those exit polls, bought a new living room set.

I'm glad to hear that.

Congratulations on your new living room set!

33 posted on 01/03/2008 4:41:33 PM PST by Momaw Nadon ("...with the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world.")
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To: Momaw Nadon

There’s some pretty savvy investors, the ones who find a way to unload right at the end in the last few minutes.

1546 of 1781 Precincts Reporting - 87%
Name Party Votes Vote %
Huckabee, Mike GOP 35,621 34%
Romney, Mitt GOP 26,524 25%
Thompson, Fred GOP 13,932 13%
McCain, John GOP 13,693 13%
Paul, Ron GOP 10,184 10%
Giuliani, Rudy GOP 3,613 3%
Hunter, Duncan GOP 458 0%
Tancredo, Tom GOP 3 0%

Here’s what I posted.

REP.IOWA.HUCKABEE 33
REP.IOWA.ROMNEY 22
Duncan Hunter 12
REP.IOWA.MCCAIN 11
Ron Paul 9
REP.IOWA.THOMPSON(F) 8
REP.IOWA.GIULIANI 4
REP.IOWA.FIELD 1

If you subtract my wishful thinking for Hunter, I got pretty close on the order and even the percentages.

Well, congrats to the Huckabee supporters on their win. And also to Obama, glad to see Hildebeast knocked down a notch.

Huckabee has surged because he won a couple of debates and he’s got evangelical support. If a quick rise can happen to the liberal pro-life evangelical Huckster, it can happen to the conservative pro-life evangelical Hunter.

I do not know Duncan Hunter’s strategy. I was surprised that he chose not to campaign in Iowa. However, he may yet surprise us even before New Hampshire. Because he has campaigned in Wyoming, which has a race before New Hampshire, and no one else is campaigning there.

Wyoming to Hold Overlooked GOP Caucus Before New Hampshire
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/1947693/posts

Then there’s New Hampshire. Hunter’s already there while everyone else wraps up in Iowa.

Thompson supporters are asking Hunterites to care about polls when they obviously don’t care that much about polls, and they’re asking Hucksterites to care about conservatism when it’s obvious that isn’t high on the Huck followers’ radar. Thompson is asking for both camps to care about the things they don’t care about.

Thompson’s promise was that by this time in the race he’d be kicking tootyfruityrudy to the curb, but instead he’s whining about Huckabee and barely beats McCain in Iowa, coming in 3rd when he said he needed to come in 2nd. And Intrade greeted this news with a 25 point rise in his dropout contract price.

The bible says something about “to whom much is given, much is required” and the parable of the talents shows that bigger results are expected from those to whom more is given. Thompson was given name recognition and money and the result is dropping polls and losing 30 points at Intrade. Time to give those resources to someone who has been much more frugal with what’s been given to him: Hunter.

I will vote for Thompson if he gets the nomination, but Hunter would make a better president. That’s what primaries are supposed to be about.


34 posted on 01/03/2008 11:08:38 PM PST by Kevmo (We should withdraw from Iraq — via Tehran. And Duncan Hunter is just the man to get that job done.)
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To: Momaw Nadon

How did the charts predict the Iowa results?


35 posted on 01/04/2008 9:36:16 AM PST by Jabba the Nutt (Just laugh at them!)
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To: Jabba the Nutt
How did the charts predict the Iowa results?

For example, at the beginning of the day, both Huckabee and Obama had the highest futures contract price for winning the Iowa Caucus in their respective parties.

When the final official results came in last night, both Huckabee and Obama won. This is signified by a final contract price of 100 for the winning candidates, and a final contract price of 0 for all of the other candidates.

For the New Hampshire primary coming up next Tuesday, January 8, 2007, current InTrade futures contract prices predict a win for both McCain and Obama.

36 posted on 01/04/2008 7:04:11 PM PST by Momaw Nadon ("...with the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world.")
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To: Momaw Nadon
Sorry, make the New Hampshire primary date Tuesday, January, 8, 2008.

(Still getting used to writing 2008 instead of 2007.)

37 posted on 01/04/2008 7:08:46 PM PST by Momaw Nadon ("...with the ultimate goal of ending tyranny in our world.")
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To: reasonisfaith

Both these interviews were done today. Once anyone listens to Neil Cavuto’s interview with Fred they would see the real conservative! I dare anyone to listen to this video and then try to show how any other Republican candidate is MORE conservative than Fred Thompson! Fred Thompson is the man we need in the White House! GO FRED!

http://www.blogsforfredthompson.com/fred-neil-cavuto-says-huckabee-practically-wanted-sanctuary-state

http://www.blogsforfredthompson.com/msnbc-fred-thompson-addresses-post-iow


38 posted on 01/04/2008 7:11:57 PM PST by seekthetruth
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