SENATE 2006 PREDICTIONS- May 2006

self | May 22, 2006 | RobFromGa

[RobFromGa]

Here are my predictions as of today for the 2006 Senate races. I don't profess to be an expert on each of these races, and there could be some mistakes here. But the way I see it, the GOP currently has 48 safe seats and the Dems/Socialists have 41.

SAFE SEATS (GOP)

AZ- R- Kyl safe
IN- R- Lugar safe
ME- R- Snowe safe (RINO)
MS- R- Lott safe
NV- R- Ensign safe
TX- R- Hutchison safe
UT- R- Hatch safe
WY- R- Thomas safe
GOP: 8 safe + 40 carryovers = 48 minimum

SAFE SEATS (DEMS/INDEPENDENTS)

VT- I- open (Jeffords seat) Sanders likely
CA- D- Feinstein safe
CT- D- Lieberman safe (faces Dem challenger Lamont)
DE- D- Carper safe
FL- D- Nelson safe
HI- D- (Akaka seat) safe
MA- D- Swimmer Kennedy safe
MI- D- Stabenow safe? (GOP Primary Aug 8)
NE- D- Nelson safe
NM- D- Bingaman safe
ND- D- Conrad safe
NY- D- Clinton safe
WV- D- Byrd safe (health?)
WI- D- Kohl safe
14 safe + 27 carryovers = 41 minimum

I see eleven "Contests" at present, ranked below from most likely to least likely for the GOP to take the seat. With TN, VA, and MO we still have a 51 seat majority. With OH and RI, we are at 53, for a net loss of two. (I think -2 Seats is our worst case scenario barring catastrophe)

The tossups I see are MN, MT, and NJ-- with two of three we are at no change, with all three we are at +1. (I think +1 seats is our best case likely scenario)

The CONTESTS according to RobFromGa :

LIKELY GOP
TN- R- open(Frist seat) ? vs. Ford(D) (90% chance GOP)
VA- R- Allen vs. ? (90% chance GOP)
MO- R- Talent vs. McCaskill (80% chance GOP)

PROBABLE GOP
OH- R- DeWine(I) vs. Brown (60% chance GOP)
RI- R- Chafee(I) could lose primary (60% RINO, 0% conservative)

TOSSUPS
MN- D- open (Dayton seat) vs. Kennedy (50% chance GOP)
MT- R- Keenan needs to beat Burns(I) in primary (50% chance GOP)
NJ- D- Menendez(I) vs. Kean (50% chance RINO)

DOUBTFUL GOP
PA- R- Santorum(I) losing to Casey (40% chance GOP)
MD- D- open (Sarbanes seat) vs. Steele (30% chance GOP)
WA- D- Cantwell(I) vs. McGavick (30% chance GOP)

[RobFromGa]

For your discussion and corrections...

I feel 95% sure we retain Senate majority, 80% sure we have 53-56 seats.

If anyone feels strongly that I have a contested seat marked safe, or vice versa please make your case and we can adjsut accordingly. Also please post links to interesting threads and articles that woudl provide additional insight into these races.

Thanks in advance for the input...

[RobFromGa]

for your comments and pings...

[uscabjd]

what happens if Thompson challenges Kohl in Wis?

[RobFromGa]

You tell me, it puts it in play, not sure the percentage chance GOP-- 50%?

[Jeff Head]

Is that Conrad Burns in MT? If so, historically, he's very conservative and will accordingly.

[Past Your Eyes]

Steele has no more chance than that? I thought he was a rising star.

[Kahuna]

Rep. Ed Case (D) 2ndCD, Hawaii has a great chance to unseat Akaka in the primary and actually would be an improvement.

[GOPsterinMA]

Who do you predict for Majority Leader (GOP)?

I'd love to see Tom Colburn or Jeff Sessions, but that won't happen.

[george76]

Good estimates.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/2006/Election Polls2006.htm

[Russ]

I believe the Santorum/Casey race in Pa. has gone from "doubtful GOP" to "tossup". Most polls show Casey's once double digit lead down to around six points. By November this race just might end up being a big win for GOP.

[Don'tMessWithTexas]

I got a feeling that Santorum and DeWine will retain their seats in the Senate and the GOP will gain 1 or two seats.

[ErnBatavia]

CA- D- Feinstein safe

Sigh...you're dead on with that pick....and come her next election, Boxer is a safer yet seat. There ARE things that suck about California - mainly that coastal zone IQ thingie.

[UNGN]

Ben Nelson as Safe for the Democrats is crazy talk.

It's a Republican state and if there is any hint the Senate might turn over, the Republicans will turn out in droves to run Nelson out of Washington on a rail.

He's up against the son of the TD/Ameritrade founder. Where are the Democrats going to come up with THAT kind of money?

sell drugs? Kick backs? Illegal aliens?

[ClaireSolt]

The thing to try to watch is the black Republican candidates in the mid Atlantic states. Blackwell polls 50% in black communties in OH. Will this pull along neighboring state blacks to vote Republican too for the first time in a long time? It may produce a regional shift, but it will be going on under the radar. Maryland has already voted Steele statewide.

[ConservativeGreek]

Nice job.
Thanks for posting.
Remain a bit more concerned about MO and OH. However, the only info I have comes from the MSM.

[AntiGuv]

I just revised my own ratings today, so here goes! Arizona seems to be our biggest disagreement.

Safe Democratic

California
Delaware
Florida
Hawaii
Massachusetts
New Mexico
New York
North Dakota
Vermont (I)*
Wisconsin

Likely Democratic

Connecticut
Nebraska
West Virginia

Lean Democratic

Maryland*
Michigan
Minnesota*
Montana (R)
Pennsylvania (R)
Washington

Toss Up

Missouri (R)
New Jersey (D)*
Ohio (R)

Lean Republican

Arizona
Rhode Island

Likely Republican

Tennessee*
Virginia

Safe Republican

Indiana
Maine
Mississippi
Nevada
Texas
Utah
Wyoming

[WalterSkinner]

..it's sad to see local R candidates demagogue the immigration issue--as if there will ever be a Republican majority of anything in California again...

[firewalk]

.

[MikefromOhio]

Ohio won't be a tossup for the Senate seat.

[AntiGuv]

Maybe not, but it will be so long as Brown is leading in the latest poll.