Posted on 12/24/2014 10:37:30 AM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
“Who is Ben Carson? Where did he come from?” asked CNN’s Jake Tapper after a CNN poll revealed that Carson, a political novice, was running second to former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush for the Republican nomination for president in 2016. Carson has also placed second in other national polls, second in Iowa surveys and in the high single digits in New Hampshire.
So just how seriously should we take Carson’s potential bid for the White House? Seriously enough. He could make some noise, particularly in Iowa. But not seriously enough to believe that he has any real shot of winning the nomination.
It’s hardest to dismiss Carson’s support in Iowa. He came in second place in a Des Moines Register survey conducted in October with 11 percent — even though only 49 percent of potential caucus-goers knew enough about him to form an opinion. His ratio of support to name recognition was higher than that of any other candidate polled, including 2012 Republican nominee Mitt Romney. Carson has a chairperson in each of Iowa’s 99 counties; he has a real following in the Hawkeye State.
Carson also has some history on his side in Iowa. Political novices who haven’t held elected office have a bad record in nomination fights overall, but they’ve done OK in Iowa. In 1988, the Christian Broadcasting Network’s Pat Robertson earned a second-place finish in the Iowa caucuses. In 2000, businessman Steve Forbes earned the runner-up spot. Forbes also came in a respectable fourth in the caucuses four years earlier, the same year he won the Arizona and Delaware primaries.
Carson’s problem, though, is that his high ratio of support to name recognition is likely a mirage. He was a contributor to Fox News through this past November. These appearances allowed him to build up his brand among Republicans without negative attacks. Combine his role on Fox News with the fact that he is already airing television ads, and it’s clear why Carson is so well liked — he’s had the stage to himself.
He won’t once the campaign begins in earnest. Carson’s opponents will start airing their own ads. They will be able to build up their own name recognition and tell their own stories. Carson is only in the low teens in support at this point, which won’t be anywhere near enough to win a single caucus or primary. It’s likely other candidates will storm past him.
Moreover, if Carson is perceived to be a real threat, he’ll have some mud coming his way. And his opponents will have a lot to work with. Carson has made a number of statements that will make GOP voters who are concerned about electability cringe: He has compared gay marriage to bestiality, Obamacare to slavery and nazism to the United States. He came to the defense of Ray Rice.
Carson — a darling of the far right — may also have some policy problems. OnTheIssues.org, a nonpartisan nonprofit that scores politicians’ ideology based on their public statements, rates Carson as a “moderate conservative” because some of his statements about free trade, gun control and health care have flirted with moderation.
Finally — as I mentioned above — it’s very difficult for a candidate who hasn’t held elected office to win a party’s presidential nomination. (FiveThirtyEight’s presidential model looks at experience in elected office in assessing a candidate’s chances. It’s predictive.) Forbes and Robertson, for example, faded after their showings in Iowa and didn’t seriously contend for the nomination. A candidate without elected experience hasn’t been nominated by either major party since Dwight Eisenhower in 1952.
And the last time I checked, Carson didn’t win World War II.
“A candidate without elected experience hasn’t been nominated by either major party since Dwight Eisenhower in 1952.”
This statement is ludicrous at face value. Why? Because all the nominees *with* elected experience have been failing the GOP *and* the country miserably.
I like him, but understand he’s anti-self defense.
Really? Ted Cruz, Mike Lee, Sarah Palin, Bobby Jindal, Jeff Sessions, Greg Abbott, Nikki Haley and Scott Walker have failed you?
there are one or two candidates I think I like, already in the race
but there are several I don’t care for
and since there’s still time.... its good this fellow is runniing. Let him run and... we will see, learn more about his views.
and it may take a little of the focus off Bush/Christie/clones?
bump
These vanity fakes get annoying, why can’t they just sell their books without seeking free publicity, by playing at running for president.
He’s a darling of the “far right”?
What does this make us at FR, LOL.
Even the ones with some elective experience [cough ... Mike Huckabee] [cough ... Rick Santorum] [cough ... Joe Scarborough] should just go away.
One problem: After Obama, the first AA-AA (affirmative action-African American) president, even a talented America loving black will be looked on as a probable AA promotion.
“Who is Barack Obama? Where did he come from?”
We know a whole lot more about Ben Carson and where he came from than we know about that other guy.
Except for Reagan.
If folks must yet again go black
That Milwaukee police chief is way better
And why should we believe Carson would be any different?
His publicly stated view on the 2nd Amendment has disqualified him from my vote for any high office.
Perhaps he can be appointed to Surgeon General one day in a distant future if and when the current tyranny is removed and replaced.
I don’t think there’ll be another black president for at least a generation, if not more.
There’s nothing ludicrous about it. It’s not saying candidates without experience wouldn’t be good if they won, it’s saying they don’t win. That’s a simple statement of fact, nothing ludicrous about fact.
The shadow of Herman Cain looms over Carson for me. I need some sort of proof he’s not just on a book tour.
Carson is Jeb and the GOPe dream come true.
Carson can peel enough votes away from a conservative that has a real chance of winning the nomination to help Jeb win the nomination. It worked for McCain and Mitt so I can work for Jeb too.
I like Carson but he has ZERO chance of winning. He’s a spoiler for conservatives.
I smell Karl Rove.
He has nothing that Cruz doesn't have, and Cruz has much more. So why divide our vote?
The Tea Party HAS TO unite behind Cruz as quickly as possible before the GOPe big money unites behind Jeb.
Rush, Sean, Glenn and Mark HAVE TO endorse Ted NOW. It's the only realistic hope of coalescing the Tea Party behind a single candidate. If they miss this opportunity, it may be America's last chance before a long, dark winter of decline.
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