Posted on 11/03/2012 9:34:23 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
Ed already gave you all you really need to know about the D+9 sample, but I know you conservatives. I understand your DNA. You are probably looking for any indication the election is going to get away from us, and you’re getting a head start on your 96 hour panic now. Let me see if I can help walk you in from the ledge.
In 2008, one of John McCain’s closing campaign stops was in Cleveland, Ohio. It happened to be at the same venue Barack Obama used last night (h/t John Nolte over at Breitbart). John McCain drew a crowd of 4,200 people. Barack Obama? 2,800. The same night, Romney/Ryan drew 30,000 people in West Chester.
So in order to believe the Marist poll, that Obama is up over the margin of error, you have to believe that the intensity level for Obama by party ID is higher now than it was in 2008. You have to believe that the swing from 2008 to 2010, where party ID went from D+8 to R+1, resulting in the election of a Republican governor, a Republican Senator, and control of the state house, all that has not only vanished, but recoiled even further in Obama’s direction. You have to believe that the crowd of 80,000 Obama drew in 2008 in Cleveland the closing days of the campaign demonstrates less energy and passion for their candidate than the 4,000 did this morning. You have to believe that the 30,000 people last night at the Romney/Ryan rally shows less enthusiasm for their candidate than the 4,200 did in 2008 for John McCain. You have to believe that Michael Barone, a man who you can introduce yourself to and tell him where you’re from, and he’ll tell you who won your Congressional district in 1966 from memory, is wrong when he reads that Cuyahoga County, long a Democratic stronghold in the Buckeye State, is way off in party registration. He’s also wrong when reports for early voting tend to favor Mitt Romney, and favor him big. You also have to believe that Ohio Catholics and values voters don’t care about the HHS regulations. You also have to believe that Ohio, an energy state, doesn’t care about energy production.
If your belief is that great, you have greater faith in Eeyore than I do.
Marist – Mostly Assuming Republicans Invisible Sounds True.
Carville is the only liberal I know of who takes defeat well.
I still think the polls are being skewed to mask impending massive vote fraud. If the polls were actually reporting a large Romney lead, then an Obama victory would be very suspect. If he pulls off a narrow “victory”, the Dems will say the result was consistent with the polls. I think America is being set up for a stolen election.
Yep - I believe that the rally attendance will somewhat mirror the voter turnout. Could make for pleasant dreams next Tuesday night.
Because win or lose he still gets paid. A Political Whore and laughing all the way to the bank. His wife too.
OT:
How is the puppy, Salamander?
My 11-week-old is healthy, but a handful. We are sleep deprived, too. This week it has been basic Akita-ness, aka: defiance and self-assertion. It’s what we love about the breed, but it is exhausting at this age. Or maybe it’s our ages?
You need sleep. Turn off the media and keep on the pup’s schedule. You’ll find out soon enough and whichever way it goes, you can deal w/it the following morning.
I stayed up in 2004 and fell asleep at midnight, so I still didn’t find anything out until whatever it was....a week(?) later. In 2008, we just ignored it all. I’m sure you have your contingency plans no matter which way it goes.
She’s learning to play, finally but we have to be careful because she gets too squirrely which increases her odds of bumping into things.
She went for her first cold laser treatment last night.
They’ve been using cold laser on traumatic brain injuries with some good results so we though we’d try that while waiting for her to get old enough for her other tests.
[the vet said to wait until she’s 10 weeks old]
She’s sort of in quarantine because they will not give her puppy shots due to her fragile condition.
That also isn’t until she’s 10 weeks old so until then, we have to be careful not to let anything potentially contagious into the bedroom.
She’s still wobbly but mostly when she’s tired.
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