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RE: Marist Poll In Ohio
Hot Air ^ | November 3, 2012 | Duane Patterson

Posted on 11/03/2012 9:34:23 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet

Ed already gave you all you really need to know about the D+9 sample, but I know you conservatives. I understand your DNA. You are probably looking for any indication the election is going to get away from us, and you’re getting a head start on your 96 hour panic now. Let me see if I can help walk you in from the ledge.

In 2008, one of John McCain’s closing campaign stops was in Cleveland, Ohio. It happened to be at the same venue Barack Obama used last night (h/t John Nolte over at Breitbart). John McCain drew a crowd of 4,200 people. Barack Obama? 2,800. The same night, Romney/Ryan drew 30,000 people in West Chester.

So in order to believe the Marist poll, that Obama is up over the margin of error, you have to believe that the intensity level for Obama by party ID is higher now than it was in 2008. You have to believe that the swing from 2008 to 2010, where party ID went from D+8 to R+1, resulting in the election of a Republican governor, a Republican Senator, and control of the state house, all that has not only vanished, but recoiled even further in Obama’s direction. You have to believe that the crowd of 80,000 Obama drew in 2008 in Cleveland the closing days of the campaign demonstrates less energy and passion for their candidate than the 4,000 did this morning. You have to believe that the 30,000 people last night at the Romney/Ryan rally shows less enthusiasm for their candidate than the 4,200 did in 2008 for John McCain. You have to believe that Michael Barone, a man who you can introduce yourself to and tell him where you’re from, and he’ll tell you who won your Congressional district in 1966 from memory, is wrong when he reads that Cuyahoga County, long a Democratic stronghold in the Buckeye State, is way off in party registration. He’s also wrong when reports for early voting tend to favor Mitt Romney, and favor him big. You also have to believe that Ohio Catholics and values voters don’t care about the HHS regulations. You also have to believe that Ohio, an energy state, doesn’t care about energy production.

If your belief is that great, you have greater faith in Eeyore than I do.

Marist – Mostly Assuming Republicans Invisible Sounds True.


TOPICS: Ohio; Campaign News; Polls
KEYWORDS: obama; ohio; polls; romney
Indeed.
1 posted on 11/03/2012 9:34:34 PM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Is the poll the Marist Poll or the Marxist Poll?


2 posted on 11/03/2012 9:41:08 PM PDT by MIchaelTArchangel
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Thank you (and the rest of FR) for helping pull me back at least a foot from the edge. I drift forward and back, forward and back...too scared of the positivity and momentum I am feeling, but even more frightened of NOT feeling them. Dear God. I just want to go to sleep and wake up Tuesday to go vote, then go back to sleep and wake up Wednesday when it will be (hopefully) over. What it all comes down to is this: My faith in America is starting to be restored and I’m terrified it’s going to be ripped from me again. I am insane.


3 posted on 11/03/2012 9:47:23 PM PDT by gotspeedyfingers (why are all my writings so lengthy!?)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Good pick me up post!


4 posted on 11/03/2012 9:47:40 PM PDT by The Conservative Goddess
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

lol. is it as bad as Rooters that says Obama winning Ohio by 1%... its internals say 46% Dem, 38% GOP


5 posted on 11/03/2012 9:51:06 PM PDT by GeronL (http://asspos.blogspot.com)
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To: gotspeedyfingers
(why are all my writings so lengthy!?)

Cuz you use spaces between the words?

6 posted on 11/03/2012 9:53:31 PM PDT by GeronL (http://asspos.blogspot.com)
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To: gotspeedyfingers

I *was* going to simply leave the house election night and not come home until early morning.

That ‘sanity preserving plan’ went south because of the sick puppy.

I’m going to have to stay home and tear my hair out all night.


7 posted on 11/03/2012 9:55:56 PM PDT by Salamander (Wounded, old and dangerous.)
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To: gotspeedyfingers
I just want to go to sleep and wake up Tuesday to go vote, then go back to sleep and wake up Wednesday when it will be (hopefully) over.

Not me I want to sleep in late, since I already voted. Then I want to stay up late watching the returns. My hopes are to see Chris Matthews cry, see James Carvalle wear a trashcan, and read about the DU wallowing in despair. Then tivo the first 5 minutes of the LSM morning shows to see if they are wearing black.

8 posted on 11/03/2012 9:59:19 PM PDT by notpoliticallycorewrecked (Our military does not kill babies, those that commit abortion kill babies.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
Most polls now are making corrections and moving toward weighting their polls correctly. Not Marist in Ohio.

This article using real numbers and reasoning trashes the last vestige of the Obama push polling propaganda, the Marist Nov. 2 Ohio poll.

9 posted on 11/03/2012 10:02:06 PM PDT by FreeReign
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To: Salamander
I so look forward to Tuesday. I was going to do pizza and beer but I think I am going with cheese burgers, potato salad, Mai Thi’s. Relax. Mitt will win and win big. It will be over early. Have faith in The Lord . And don’t forget, conservatives aren’t going anywhere.
10 posted on 11/03/2012 10:26:30 PM PDT by Nuc 1.1 (Nuc 1 Liberals aren't Patriots. Remember 1789!)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

I don’t know. After all, everybody in Cleveland got Obamaphone!


11 posted on 11/03/2012 10:43:18 PM PDT by RPTMS
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To: Salamander
I’m going to have to stay home and tear my hair out all night.

Get a good book, some decent wine and play Mahler on the stereo. When you wake up in the morning with a hang over turn on Fox News to find out what happened; I'll bet it makes you feel much better.

12 posted on 11/03/2012 10:56:27 PM PDT by Mike Darancette (Obama didn't fix it!)
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To: MIchaelTArchangel

Marist Marxist same thing.


13 posted on 11/03/2012 10:58:16 PM PDT by Red Steel
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To: RPTMS
I don’t know. After all, everybody in Cleveland got Obamaphone!

(Fixed it!)

14 posted on 11/03/2012 11:02:31 PM PDT by NoCmpromiz (John 14:6 is a non-pluralistic comment.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
"You have to believe that Michael Barone, a man who you can introduce yourself to and tell him where you’re from, and he’ll tell you who won your Congressional district in 1966 from memory..."

LOL....great line. And an apt description.

Hank

15 posted on 11/03/2012 11:22:24 PM PDT by County Agent Hank Kimball (Myth Romney is a vile Fabian Socialist - his opponent is infinitely worse. How did it come to this?)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
"You have to believe that Michael Barone, a man who you can introduce yourself to and tell him where you’re from, and he’ll tell you who won your Congressional district in 1966 from memory..."

LOL....great line. And an apt description.

Hank

16 posted on 11/03/2012 11:22:33 PM PDT by County Agent Hank Kimball (Myth Romney is a vile Fabian Socialist - his opponent is infinitely worse. How did it come to this?)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet
I learned long ago: Poll by Marist = disregard in full. Marist is for chumps and fools.

We are hosting a neighborhood Romney victory party Tuesday night. This is one for the record books. I cannot wait.
17 posted on 11/04/2012 12:17:17 AM PDT by DRey (Please save my country. Romney/Ryan 2012)
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To: Mike Darancette

I wish I could get good and drunk but I can’t stand the stuff.

It all tastes like artificially flavored rubbing alcohol to me.

I have to face reality completely sober.

[and that ain’t for wimps]

LOL

Maybe I can keep busy and compulsively rearrange my art studio.

[oh, who am I kidding...I’ll be glued to the TV]


18 posted on 11/04/2012 12:42:23 AM PDT by Salamander (Wounded, old and dangerous.)
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

thanks. i really needed that. im so worried. now maybe i can sleep better.


19 posted on 11/04/2012 2:11:47 AM PST by annajones (Please Act)
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To: notpoliticallycorewrecked

My hopes are to see Chris Matthews cry, see James Carvalle wear a trashcan

i actually like james carville. i cant figure out why


20 posted on 11/04/2012 2:58:49 AM PST by willywill
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To: willywill

Carville is the only liberal I know of who takes defeat well.


21 posted on 11/04/2012 3:08:46 AM PST by piasa (Attitude adjustments offered here free of charge)
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To: piasa

I still think the polls are being skewed to mask impending massive vote fraud. If the polls were actually reporting a large Romney lead, then an Obama victory would be very suspect. If he pulls off a narrow “victory”, the Dems will say the result was consistent with the polls. I think America is being set up for a stolen election.


22 posted on 11/04/2012 4:12:55 AM PST by littleharbour
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To: 2ndDivisionVet

Yep - I believe that the rally attendance will somewhat mirror the voter turnout. Could make for pleasant dreams next Tuesday night.


23 posted on 11/04/2012 4:28:55 AM PST by trebb (Allies no longer trust us. Enemies no longer fear us.)
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To: piasa

Because win or lose he still gets paid. A Political Whore and laughing all the way to the bank. His wife too.


24 posted on 11/04/2012 4:49:29 AM PST by mazda77
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To: Salamander

OT:

How is the puppy, Salamander?

My 11-week-old is healthy, but a handful. We are sleep deprived, too. This week it has been basic Akita-ness, aka: defiance and self-assertion. It’s what we love about the breed, but it is exhausting at this age. Or maybe it’s our ages?

You need sleep. Turn off the media and keep on the pup’s schedule. You’ll find out soon enough and whichever way it goes, you can deal w/it the following morning.

I stayed up in 2004 and fell asleep at midnight, so I still didn’t find anything out until whatever it was....a week(?) later. In 2008, we just ignored it all. I’m sure you have your contingency plans no matter which way it goes.


25 posted on 11/04/2012 1:46:33 PM PST by reformedliberal
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To: reformedliberal

She’s learning to play, finally but we have to be careful because she gets too squirrely which increases her odds of bumping into things.

She went for her first cold laser treatment last night.

They’ve been using cold laser on traumatic brain injuries with some good results so we though we’d try that while waiting for her to get old enough for her other tests.

[the vet said to wait until she’s 10 weeks old]

She’s sort of in quarantine because they will not give her puppy shots due to her fragile condition.

That also isn’t until she’s 10 weeks old so until then, we have to be careful not to let anything potentially contagious into the bedroom.

She’s still wobbly but mostly when she’s tired.


26 posted on 11/04/2012 8:03:58 PM PST by Salamander (Wounded, old and dangerous.)
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