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The Russian "Firehose of Falsehood" Propaganda Model: Why It Might Work and Options to Counter It.
Rand Corporation ^ | January 1, 2016 | Christopher Paul and Miriam Matthews

Posted on 06/06/2022 2:06:36 PM PDT by Widget Jr

Since its 2008 incursion into Georgia (if not before), there has been a remarkable evolution in Russia's approach to propaganda. This new approach was on full display during the country's 2014 annexation of the Crimean peninsula. It continues to be demonstrated in support of ongoing conflicts in Ukraine and Syria and in pursuit of nefarious and long-term goals in Russia's “near abroad” and against NATO allies.

In some ways, the current Russian approach to propaganda builds on Soviet Cold War–era techniques, with an emphasis on obfuscation and on getting targets to act in the interests of the propagandist without realizing that they have done so. In other ways, it is completely new and driven by the characteristics of the contemporary information environment. Russia has taken advantage of technology and available media in ways that would have been inconceivable during the Cold War. Its tools and channels now include the Internet, social media, and the evolving landscape of professional and amateur journalism and media outlets.

Distinctive Features of the Contemporary Model for Russian Propaganda

  1. High-volume and multichannel
  2. Rapid, continuous, and repetitive
  3. Lacks commitment to objective reality
  4. Lacks commitment to consistency.

We characterize the contemporary Russian model for propaganda as “the firehose of falsehood” because of two of its distinctive features: high numbers of channels and messages and a shameless willingness to disseminate partial truths or outright fictions. In the words of one observer, “[N]ew Russian propaganda entertains, confuses and overwhelms the audience.”

Contemporary Russian propaganda has at least two other distinctive features. It is also rapid, continuous, and repetitive, and it lacks commitment to consistency.

++++++++++

Russian Propaganda Is High-Volume and Multichannel

Russian propaganda is produced in incredibly large volumes and is broadcast or otherwise distributed via a large number of channels. This propaganda includes text, video, audio, and still imagery propagated via the Internet, social media, satellite television, and traditional radio and television broadcasting. The producers and disseminators include a substantial force of paid Internet “trolls” who also often attack or undermine views or information that runs counter to Russian themes, doing so through online chat rooms, discussion forums, and comments sections on news and other websites.4 Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty reports that “there are thousands of fake accounts on Twitter, Facebook, LiveJournal, and vKontakte” maintained by Russian propagandists. According to a former paid Russian Internet troll, the trolls are on duty 24 hours a day, in 12-hour shifts, and each has a daily quota of 135 posted comments of at least 200 characters.

++++++++++

Russian Propaganda Is Rapid, Continuous, and Repetitive

Contemporary Russian propaganda is continuous and very responsive to events. Due to their lack of commitment to objective reality (discussed later), Russian propagandists do not need to wait to check facts or verify claims; they just disseminate an interpretation of emergent events that appears to best favor their themes and objectives. This allows them to be remarkably responsive and nimble, often broadcasting the first “news” of events (and, with similar frequency, the first news of nonevents, or things that have not actually happened). They will also repeat and recycle disinformation. The January 14, 2016, edition of Weekly Disinformation Review reported the reemergence of several previously debunked Russian propaganda stories, including that Polish President Andrzej Duda was insisting that Ukraine return former Polish territory, that Islamic State fighters were joining pro-Ukrainian forces, and that there was a Western-backed coup in Kiev, Ukraine’s capital.

Sometimes, Russian propaganda is picked up and rebroadcast by legitimate news outlets; more frequently, social media repeats the themes, messages, or falsehoods introduced by one of Russia’s many dissemination channels.

++++++++++

Russian Propaganda Makes No Commitment to Objective Reality

It may come as little surprise that the psychology literature supports the persuasive potential of high-volume, diverse channels and sources, along with rapidity and repetition. These aspects of Russian propaganda make intuitive sense. One would expect any influence effort to enjoy greater success if it is backed by a willingness to invest in additional volume and channels and if its architects find ways to increase the frequency and responsiveness of messages. This next characteristic, however, flies in the face of intuition and conventional wisdom, which can be paraphrased as “The truth always wins.”

Contemporary Russian propaganda makes little or no commitment to the truth. This is not to say that all of it is false. Quite the contrary: It often contains a significant fraction of the truth.

++++++++++

Russian Propaganda Is Not Committed to Consistency

The final distinctive characteristic of Russian propaganda is that it is not committed to consistency. First, different propaganda media do not necessarily broadcast the exact same themes or messages. Second, different channels do not necessarily broadcast the same account of contested events. Third, different channels or representatives show no fear of “changing their tune.” If one falsehood or misrepresentation is exposed or is not well received, the propagandists will discard it and move on to a new (though not necessarily more plausible) explanation. One example of such behavior is the string of accounts offered for the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17. Russian sources have offered numerous theories about how the aircraft came to be shot down and by whom, very few of which are plausible.27 Lack of commitment to consistency is also apparent in statements from Russian President Vladimir Putin. For example, he first denied that the “little green men” in Crimea were Russian soldiers but later admitted that they were. Similarly, he at first denied any desire to see Crimea join Russia, but then he admitted that that had been his plan all along.

++++++++++

What Can Be Done to Counter the Firehose of Falsehood?

Experimental research in psychology suggests that the features of the contemporary Russian propaganda model have the potential to be highly effective. Even those features that run counter to conventional wisdom on effective influence (e.g., the importance of veracity and consistency) receive some support in the literature.

If the Russian approach to propaganda is effective, then what can be done about it? We conclude with a few thoughts about how NATO, the United States, or other opponents of the firehose of falsehood might better compete. The first step is to recognize that this is a nontrivial challenge....

We are not optimistic about the effectiveness of traditional counterpropaganda efforts...

Forewarning is perhaps more effective than retractions or refutation of propaganda that has already been received. The research suggests two possible avenues:

In practice, getting in front of misinformation and raising awareness of misinformation might involve more robust and more widely publicized efforts to “out” Russian propaganda sources and the nature of their efforts.


TOPICS: Computers/Internet; Conspiracy; Education; History
KEYWORDS: angryneoconsonfr; bidenpuffers; bidensbuttboys; bidenworshippers; blueandyellowdrank; cccp; chechens; chechnya; chicoms; china; clownworld; communism; dailymailisrussian; deathtocccp; deathtoccp; deathtochechnya; deathtoputin; deathtorussia; deathtoussr; deathtoxi; delphitechnique; disinformation; fakenews; hateamericafirst; neocondupes; neoconned; neoconneddupes; neocons4biden; neokoolaid; pedos4biden; pedosforputin; propaganda; putin; putin4ussr; putinacommie; putinlovertrollsonfr; putinlovescommunism; putinpufferparade; putinsbuttboys; putinworshippers; randcorporation; russia; russianaggression; russiandailymail; scottritter; sovietreunion; soviettrollsonfr; sovietunion; thedelphitechnique; ukraine; ukraineislosing; ukrainicorns; ussr; warofthekeywords; winniethexi; xifanclub; xisbuttboys; zotchicomtrolls; zotcommietrolls; zotdaglobalisttrolls; zotsoviettrolls; zottheneocontrolls; zottherussiantrolls; zotthesorostrolls
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Cut down from 16 pages to get the major points, a PDF is available at source for free.

This explains the key elements of contemporary Russian propaganda, based on its Soviet and Cold War origins.

No matter how bad the U.S. press is, the Russian press is always worse.

1 posted on 06/06/2022 2:06:36 PM PDT by Widget Jr
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To: Widget Jr

How does this differ from what the USA is doing?


2 posted on 06/06/2022 2:09:54 PM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum (Contempt for pre-born human life breeds contempt for post-born human life.)
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To: Widget Jr

Good post. Thanks


3 posted on 06/06/2022 2:11:24 PM PDT by rrrod (6)
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To: rrrod

#3. You’re welcome.


4 posted on 06/06/2022 2:12:40 PM PDT by Widget Jr
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To: Widget Jr

This is complete nonsense please list concreate examples of Russian propaganda as it relates to Ukraine.


5 posted on 06/06/2022 2:17:57 PM PDT by bte
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To: Widget Jr
The Rand Corporation has made “Poking the Bear” a National Strategy of the USA since at least 2019…

https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_briefs/RB10014.html

Perhaps nuclear war is a good thing?
6 posted on 06/06/2022 2:20:05 PM PDT by Jan_Sobieski (Sanctification)
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To: Widget Jr

Ukraine is winning the propaganda war. Not even close.


7 posted on 06/06/2022 2:24:39 PM PDT by McGruff (Don't underestimate Joe's ability to f*** things up - Barack Obama)
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Says the Leftwing Rand Corp.


8 posted on 06/06/2022 2:27:46 PM PDT by Gene Eric (Don't be a statist!)
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To: E. Pluribus Unum
#2. This is about Russian propaganda, not American.

Taking your question seriously, for the American propaganda look at what the news did to Trump, from Russia Collusion to January 6 and everything in between.

For now, this is how I think it works here. U.S. propaganda is controlled at the corporate and upper political levels using a "official narrative" (agreed lie) and runs with it for as long as they can. When running the narrative, we, the ordinary people, are not allowed to question or hold accountable those in power who create the narrative (remember November 4, 2020?).

Search on "who owns the news" or "media consolidation". From Media Consolidation: The Illusion of Choice , in 1983 50 companies owned 90% of the American news, in 2011 90% was owned by 6 companies. Before 2010, there was much more room in the mainstream news for disagreement, so one view could not dominate the press without getting challenged by other members of the press who had equal means to challenge a narrative.

When they can't they drop it stage by stage. The news is now admitting that Russia Collusion was a fraud, while still holding onto January 6 was Trump's coup. In a few years when they have something else to attack, then maybe they will walk back on January 6.

9 posted on 06/06/2022 2:29:25 PM PDT by Widget Jr
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To: bte

“This is complete nonsense please list concreate examples of Russian propaganda as it relates to Ukraine.”

“Ukraine is full of Nazis!” Is a big one.
“Russia isn’t invading Ukraine.” Is another.
“Russia is not preparing to invade Ukraine.” completes the trifecta.

L


10 posted on 06/06/2022 2:31:57 PM PDT by Lurker (Peaceful coexistence with the Left is not possible. Stop pretending that it is.)
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To: bte
#5. This was about the framework, more than specific examples, which if you read the article are there.

If you want examples look up what Lee Camp, Scott Ritter, Larry Johnson, Gonzalo Lira, Col. Douglas Macgregor, the Duran, or what any repeat guest on RT has to say.

11 posted on 06/06/2022 2:32:34 PM PDT by Widget Jr
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To: Widget Jr

I would like to see an analysis of US propaganda, specifically propaganda used on American citizens.


12 posted on 06/06/2022 2:33:21 PM PDT by Bloodandgravy (Is it time yet?)
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To: Widget Jr; E. Pluribus Unum; rrrod; bte; Jan_Sobieski; McGruff; Gene Eric
You haven't been here very long, Widget, so you probably wouldn't know about The Delphi Technique [Rand Corporation]:

The Delphi Technique: Let’s Stop Being Manipulated!
http://vlrc.org/articles/110.html

The process used to “facilitate” the meeting is called the Delphi Technique. This Delphi Technique was developed by the RAND Corporation for the U.S. Department of Defense back in the 1950s. It was originally intended for use as a psychological weapon during the cold war.

Hilarious that the professional manipulators at RAND are decrying manipulation...

13 posted on 06/06/2022 2:33:44 PM PDT by kiryandil (China Joe and Paycheck Hunter - the Chink in America's defenses)
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To: Bloodandgravy

see my post #13 for RAND Corporation irony.


14 posted on 06/06/2022 2:34:20 PM PDT by kiryandil (China Joe and Paycheck Hunter - the Chink in America's defenses)
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To: Bloodandgravy

Read up on WWI and George Creel.


15 posted on 06/06/2022 2:35:55 PM PDT by dfwgator (Endut! Hoch Hech!)
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To: Widget Jr

sure sounds a lot like NYT,WaPo and CNN
sure sounds a lot like ABC,CBS,NBC
sure sounds a lot like AP,Rooters and DailyMail


16 posted on 06/06/2022 2:35:55 PM PDT by CarolinaReaganFan
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To: Widget Jr

“Distinctive Features of the Contemporary Model for Russian Propaganda

1) High-volume and multichannel
2) Rapid, continuous, and repetitive
3) Lacks commitment to objective reality
4) Lacks commitment to consistency.

We characterize the contemporary Russian model for propaganda as “the firehose of falsehood”

Thank goodness we are free from such activities by Washington DC, beacon of honesty. /s


17 posted on 06/06/2022 2:38:58 PM PDT by DesertRhino (Dogs are called man's best friend. Moslems hate dogs. Add it up..)
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To: bte
This is complete nonsense please list concreate examples of Russian propaganda as it relates to Ukraine.

"We believe that biological weapons components are being manufactured in Ukraine," Major General Kirillov was quoted as saying by TASS March 18.

https://voi.id/en/news/146856/klaim-miliki-bukti-dokumenter-bioeksperimen-yang-didanai-as-rusia-komponen-senjata-biologis-dibuat-di-ukraina

"It can be said with a high degree of probability that one of the objectives of the United States and their allies is the creation of bio-agents capable of selectively hitting various ethnic groups of the population," Igor Kirillov, the head of the Radiation, Chemical and Biological Protection Troops of the Russian Armed Forces, said on March 10, according to the Russian news agency Interfax.

https://www.newsweek.com/russia-claim-ukraine-making-ethnic-specific-bioweapons-science-fiction-united-states-1687219

"Russia accuses Ukraine of trying to make nuclear weapons"

https://www.jpost.com/breaking-news/article-699355

"Russia accuses Ukraine of plot to ‘murder’ pro-Kremlin media figures"

https://www.scmp.com/news/world/russia-central-asia/article/3175524/russia-accuses-ukraine-plot-murder-pro-kremlin-media

"Russian Media Accuse Ukraine of Using 'Black Magic' as Invasion Falters"

https://www.newsweek.com/russian-media-accuse-ukraine-using-black-magic-invasion-falters-1703510

18 posted on 06/06/2022 2:41:19 PM PDT by tlozo (Trump-the Russian invasion of Ukraine is " truly a crime against humanity")
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To: DesertRhino

The Daily Mail Firehose on FR...


19 posted on 06/06/2022 2:41:38 PM PDT by kiryandil (China Joe and Paycheck Hunter - the Chink in America's defenses)
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To: Widget Jr

And let me guess, America needs a way to monitor and regulate what we see here in America so we are not lead astray?

Did I guess right?


20 posted on 06/06/2022 2:41:49 PM PDT by DesertRhino (Dogs are called man's best friend. Moslems hate dogs. Add it up..)
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