Posted on 04/24/2021 4:46:10 AM PDT by ConservativeInPA
Unknown to most people except those with an interest in solar science, the sun is about to shut down. Well, not completely – we’ll still have plenty of sunlight and heat, but the small dark blotches on the sun’s surface called sunspots, visible in the figure below, are on the verge of disappearing. According to some climate scientists, this heralds a prolonged cold stretch of maybe 35 years starting in 2020, despite global warming.
How could that happen? Because sunspots, which are caused by magnetic turbulence in the sun’s interior, signal subtle changes in solar output or activity – changes that can have a significant effect on the earth’s climate. Together with the sun’s heat and light, the monthly or yearly number of sunspots goes up and down during the approximately 11-year solar cycle. For several decades now, the maximum number of sunspots seen in a cycle has been declining.
The last time sunspots disappeared altogether was during the so-called Maunder Minimum, a 70-year cool period in the 17th and 18th centuries forming part of the Little Ice Age, and illustrated in the next figure showing the sunspot number over time. The Maunder Minimum from approximately 1645 to 1710 was the most recent occurrence of what are known as grand solar minima, or periods of very low solar activity, that recur every 350 to 400 years. So we’re due for another minimum.
Northumbria University’s Valentina Zharkova, a researcher who’s published several papers on sunspots and grand solar minima, has linked the minima to a drastic falloff in the sun’s internal magnetic field. The roughly 70% downswing in magnetic field from its average value is part of a 350- to 400-year cycle arising from regular variations in behavior of the very hot plasma powering our sun.
In between grand solar minima come grand solar maxima, when the magnetic field and number of sunspots reach their highest values. The most recent (“modern”) grand solar maximum, even though slightly lopsided, is represented by the blue peaks in the figure above. The figure below shows Zharkova’s calculated magnitude of the magnetic field from 1975 to 2040, which is seen to diminish as the minimum approaches.
The Maunder Minimum was unquestionably chilly: alpine glaciers in Europe encroached on farmland; the Netherlands’ canals froze every winter; and frost fairs on the UK’s frozen Thames River became a common sight. Solar scientists have calculated that the sun’s heat and light output, a quantity known as the total solar irradiance, decreased by 0.22% during the Maunder minimum, which is about four times its normal rise or fall over an 11-year cycle.
Other solar researchers have also predicted an imminent grand solar minimum, but for different reasons. One of the earliest predictions was by German astronomer and scholar, Theodor Landscheidt, in 2003. Landscheidt predicted a protracted cold period centered on the year 2030, based on his observations of an 87-year solar cycle known as a Gleissberg cycle, which has been linked to regional climate fluctuations such as flooding of the Nile River in Africa.
A more recent prediction, based on a longer 210-year solar cycle, is that of Russian astrophysicist Habibullo Abdussamatov. He projects a more extended period of global cooling than either Zharkova or Landscheidt, lasting as long as 65 years, with the coldest interval around 2043.
Not all solar scientists agree with such predictions. Although NOAA (the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) has recognized that sunspot numbers are falling and may approach zero in the 2030s, the international Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel forecasts that the sunspot number will remain the same in the coming 11-year cycle (Cycle 25) as it was in the cycle just completed (Cycle 24). Declaring that the recent decline in sunspot number is at an end, panel co-chair and solar physicist Lisa Upton says: “There is no indication we are approaching a Maunder-type minimum in solar activity.”
But if the predictions of Zharkova and others are correct, tough times are ahead. A relatively sudden drop in temperature of 1.0 degrees Celsius (1.8 degrees Fahrenheit) would have drastic effects on agriculture, causing crop failures and widespread hunger – as occurred during the Maunder Minimum. And the need for extra heating in both hemispheres would come at a time when it’s likely that much of our heating capacity, supplied largely by fossil fuels, will have been eliminated in the name of combating climate change.
What I do know for certain is the Sun is a bit larger than Earth. Something to the tune that 1.3 million Earths would fit in the volume of the Sun. So, conclusively, the Sun is an itty bitty bit bigger. I also know the Sun is warm. I know this because when I go outside and feel the Sun on my face, it feels warm (although, there's an outside chance that can could be caused by the SUV idling in my neighbor's driveway.) I think there is a correlation between the heat of the Sun and the temperature on Earth. I also think there is a causation between the heat of the Sun and the temperature on Earth. I highly doubt that cow farts and the use hydrocarbon fuels change the temperature of Sun, but I am open minded and I am willing to listen to all evidence.
So when this happens will that weird little Swede start demanding that *more* coal fired plants,*more* diesel cars and *more* airliners be built?
I think it was in the ‘90s when the sunspots were so big that I could see them when cloud cover was right.
Impossible that the sun has anything to do with climate change. It’s caused by humans.. Specifically white privileged racist.
Oh noes! All the sincere efforts of the woke have been for nought!
Quickly - more cow farts!!
It’s easy to misinterpret such seemingly clear correlations when you are not firmly grounded in (pseudo) science.
Let’s stop using fossil fuels just in time to freeze to death.
Un-possible. The Earth is spinning off it’s axis due to CO2 in the atmosphere, per The Weather Channel.
And Guam is going to capsize because of too many Marines.
There is no such a thing as a fossil fuel.
The author had to inject this in the last paragraph.
Call these people out each and every time.
There is no such a thing as a fossil fuel.
Upcoming minimum certainly not propaganda my friend. People have seen it coming for several years and the solar cycles weakened an the sun’s magnetic field weakened.
Wattsupwiththat. is a treasure trove of knowledgeable people providing actual science based information and debunking propaganda. Wish I had the background to understand more of the comments.
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2017/07/11/monster-solar-minimum-approaching/
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2014/08/11/a-gleissberg-solar-minimum/
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2018/05/23/are-we-headed-for-a-deep-solar-minimum/
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/12/12/deep-solar-minimum-on-the-verge-of-an-historic-milestone/
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/03/12/hathaway-on-the-solar-conveyor-belt-and-deep-solar-minimum/
They will just lie about the reported temperatures to maintain the lie. They do now. In my area, the “official” reported low temperatures the past two mornings have been 36, and 34 degrees (they changed the 34 to 32 the day after)... the actual temperature has been 28, and 24 degrees (frozen bucket of water proves it, aside from the fact that my thermometers have been calibrated, but not recently, but all show the same temps within a degree or so). The temp right now is 37 degrees, but the “right now” temp on the internet says it’s 49 degrees. It’s like this every day, so the “official” temperature is inflated by nearly 10 degrees over the actual temperatures. This is one of the coldest Aprils I remember, but they will probably say it is in the top ten warmest.
No...she’ll just move to China where that isn’t a problem.
Climate change is not about the climate. It is the justification for a carbon tax to emoer world government. They new the solar minimum was coming—that;s why they changed their jargon from “warming” to “change”.
Obama has a mansion on the ocean. So does Kerry. Checkmate.
Don't hold your breath for any of that. All they have are theories, although I'll take a SWAG over hysterical emotional-driven catastrophizing any day.
Was the font color #FFFFFF for the sarc tag?
and the only reason for the global warming (now climate marxism ) religion is to subjugate people. The stupid ones are always a majority.
“There is no such a thing as a fossil fuel.”
I don’t know about that as some dayz random expulsions could clear a room. I swear that stuff could be used as fuel since I’m considered by many to be a fossil.
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