Posted on 06/15/2020 6:38:28 PM PDT by BenLurkin
A new study... provides an updated estimate of the likely number of alien civilizations that could exist in the Milky Way. The analysis...starts with revising the Drake equation...
"The classic method for estimating the number of intelligent civilizations relies on making guesses of values relating to life," said Westby in a press release. "Our new study simplifies these assumptions using new data, giving us a solid estimate of the number of civilizations in our Galaxy."
Westby and Conselice...built a key assumption in to their estimate: Life on another planet will arise in a similar way to how it did on Earth.
The duo placed three different sets of limits on these "suitable planets" harboring life with weak, moderate and strong categories with different time frames for life to arise.
The weakest limits allowed them to make estimates on a time frame of greater than 5 billion years, while the strongest limit only assessed worlds between 4.5 and 5.5 billion years old.
When plugging the strongest limits and numbers into their complex new equation...data reveals there could be a minimum of eight CETI civilizations within the Milky Way.
On the other hand, using weaker limits, Westby and Conselice suggest there could be as many as 2,900 worlds where life has found a way that means we may be able to detect them sooner.
Though an interesting new way to examine an age-old question, the work relies on a lot of assumptions. The authors make it clear there is only one data point for intelligent, communicating life and that is humanity. Using us as the basis for other life in the cosmos may itself be flawed because the truth is we simply don't know what other intelligent life might look like or where it might thrive.
(Excerpt) Read more at cnet.com ...
Exoplanets ping
Somehow gotta feeling we’re not on that list.
GIGO
Schrodinger’s cat died because someone neglected to feed it.
Yep. We were probably on the list until about 1914. Better take us off the list.
They are counting their own toes and extrapolating.
Yeah me too.
Is there intelligent life in outer space?
Is there intelligent life on earth?
How many?
From the article:
“...the work relies on a lot of assumptions...”
-
Understatement of the day.
I like watching the youtube videos of Prof. David Kipping of Columbia University. He’s addressed the topic of calculating the possibility of intelligent life in the universe several times, including a recent video last month:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iLbbpRYRW5Y
Earth: 0
Did they use the Coronavirus model?
Right now, I am going to go with zero.
Of the star systems we’ve explored so far, 100% have life. Extrapolating this, there are approximately 400 billion civilizations in the Milky Way galaxy.
L8r
I should mention that Prof. Kipping has himself published papers on this subject, and discusses his latest one in the video I link above.
Yet scientists have no clue as to how life arrived on earth.
In a finite Universe (or at least one with a marked beginning), someone has to be first. We know we are here. Until there is evidence to the contrary, we are it. The rest is assumption and guesswork.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.