Coronavirus - We should worry a little (Vanity ANALYSIS)

bolobaby ^ | 2/14/2020 | bolobaby

[null and void]

And yet for some reason this seems to never spark any curiosity seeing that the people outside of China are not dying anywhere near the same rate?

Check back in three weeks and tell me how many of the cohort of currently diagnosed people outside China are still alive, pretty please?

[TheTimeOfMan]

“Because conditions in communist China are absolutely great”

Actually medical facilities in most of China are very good. Doctors are hit and miss - you can buy your way through med school.

[bolobaby]

Did you not read the post? You didn’t, did you?

This is why I *specifically* compared to another time China (assholes!) lied to give some perspective.

But whatever. I think you are one of those guys who just wants to be contrarian on the internet for the purpose of puffing themselves up.

My post stands on it’s own.

[null and void]

Bring Out Your Dead

Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.

The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.

So far the false positive rate is 100%.

At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.

*sigh* Such is life, and death...

If a quarantine saves just one child's life, it's worth it.

[bolobaby]

Here’s the thing - as I pointed out in my post, and others point out - China is fudging the numbers.

What we have to ask is: are they more likely to fudge the numbers UP or DOWN? What has history taught us? DO they want to look “totally in control” or “teetering on the edge of chaos?”

[VanDeKoik]

“Check back in three weeks and tell me how many of the cohort of currently diagnosed people outside China are still alive, pretty please? “

You mean after I was told two weeks ago that THIS was going to be the situation today?

And in 3 weeks when it hasnt changed much, I will still be told that “it’s right around the corner”.

[bolobaby]

I’m pretty done with you since you are one of those annoying skeptics who never provide any numbers or references, just vagaries. You do this in the face of a post FULL of hard, sourced numbers and claim you know better.

Sorry, but I don’t debate with people like that. I usually just say, “Thanks, liberal, but I’m out.”

Here’s the thing - as I pointed out in my post, and others point out - China is fudging the numbers.

What we have to ask is: are they more likely to fudge the numbers UP or DOWN? What has history taught us? DO they want to look “totally in control” or “teetering on the edge of chaos?”

[VanDeKoik]

“But whatever. I think you are one of those guys who just wants to be contrarian on the internet for the purpose of puffing themselves up.”

You mean the kooks that think this is the black death II are the only ones that can converse on this?

Frankly neither the CCP or most people online are doing much more than presenting absolute narratives, and BS’ing everything to fit into it.

No different than the climate change loons.

So I dont take either side seriously. I look at the middle, and ask some logical questions.

If you see that as being contrarian “...for the purpose of puffing themselves up.” then by all means go back to your entertainment and whip yourselves into a frenzy until you’ve quit your job, sold your house, dumped all your cash, and are living in a bunker.

Until I see that, it’s just a bunch of people hedging their bets, which means I’m going to keep questioning.

[null and void]

Fair enough. Based on rather thin data the diagnosis to death interval looks like about three weeks. Take the number diagnosed three weeks ago and today's number and do the math.

Then after you've gotten that number, predict the numbers for the next three weeks based on that percentage. DO NOT share your numbers, just watch how close you are for a while.

My prediction from a couple days ago used a simpler algorithm, but my first number missed by only 42 souls, 2.8%

See if you can do better. I bet you can, if you are honest, even with dishonest numbers to start. If the ChiComs lie about the confirmed and deceased by the same percentages to save face, the death RATE will still be accurate.

[wtd]

Timeline: The spread of the coronavirus (twitter video)

• https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1228358237285576704

• December 31, 2019 China alerts WHO to a flu-like outbreak in Wuhan

• January 9, 2020 WHO declares it to be a new type of coronavirus from the same family as SARS and MERS

• January 13th, 2020 Authorities reveal the first case of the #coronavirus outside of China after a woman was quarantined in Thailand

• January 20, 2020 China confirms person-to-person spread after four die

• January 21, 2020 Face masks sell out in Shanghai

• January 22, 2020 Deaths rise to 17, more than 540 cases are confirmed International airports carry out thermal screenings Chinese Health Commissioner Li Bin states "The virus has the potential to mutate and there is a risk of further spread of the epidemic.

• January 23, 2020 Wuhan goes into lockdown and residents try to flee the virus-hit province.

• January 24, 2020 China aims to build a 1,000 bed hospital in six days and sends more medical staff to Wuhan

• January 30, 2020 WHO declares the virus a global emergency

• February 3, 2020 Public mouring and anger mount after the death of Dr. Li Wenliang who warned of the virus

• February 4, 2020 Drugmakers race to find a vaccine or treatment but warn there is a long way to go

• February 11, 2020 China's coronavirus death toll passes 1,000 surpassing that of the SARS epidemic

  ******

  Is the Coronavirus now unstoppable? New Data (video)

  

  *****

• AFP Breaking News via Twitter: First coronavirus case in Africa: Egypt health ministry

• AFP Breaking News via Twitter: US will test people with flu symptoms for novel coronavirus: official

[VanDeKoik]

“I’m pretty done with you since you are one of those annoying skeptics who never provide any numbers or references, just vagaries. “

Skeptic = bad guy.

Well I am told that by the climate change activists too, soooooooooooooooooooooo I dont care.

“You do this in the face of a post FULL of hard, sourced numbers and claim you know better.”

What hard sourced? LOL! Because I’ve yet to hear any numbers that aren’t immediately dismissed, questioned or have people tacking on x100 to the end.

“Sorry, but I don’t debate with people like that. I usually just say, “Thanks, liberal, but I’m out.””

“Dont question me you denier!!!!!!! Dont you know I’m a conservative!”?

Seriously?

“as I pointed out in my post, and others point out - China is fudging the numbers.”

No s*it? And your numbers are just estimations for anything that isnt in China since NO ONE has anything to go on. You arent the only one that follows this stuff.

https://old.reddit.com/r/China_Flu/

“What we have to ask is: are they more likely to fudge the numbers UP or DOWN? What has history taught us? DO they want to look “totally in control” or “teetering on the edge of chaos?””

The ignorant and the crooked fudge numbers. One does it to safe face and cover-up their screw-ups, the other does it the other way and says “I’m just trying to be safe than sorry”.

[oh8eleven]

... people will come RUNNING for our southern border hoping to both escape and get medical care.

That's why we have a military - we need to use them.

[BureaucratusMaximus]

Also, the infection is *juuuuust* getting out of China now, so this comment...

Except its not. Been out in the wild since late December.

[Uncle Sham]

Since we KNOW the numbers we’ve been given from China are bogus, the only numbers we can really assess are those from outside of China. So far, both the infection rate and the death rate appear to be quite low in comparison to those China-provided numbers.

[Uncle Sham]

Since we KNOW the numbers we’ve been given from China are bogus, the only numbers we can really assess are those from outside of China. So far, both the infection rate and the death rate appear to be quite low in comparison to those China-provided numbers.

[BureaucratusMaximus]

then by all means go back to your entertainment and whip yourselves into a frenzy until you’ve quit your job, sold your house, dumped all your cash, and are living in a bunker.

Until I see that, it’s just a bunch of people hedging their bets, which means I’m going to keep questioning.

Well stated...and I agree. Bravo sir.

[Uncle Sham]

Since we KNOW the numbers we’ve been given from China are bogus, the only numbers we can really assess are those from outside of China. So far, both the infection rate and the death rate appear to be quite low in comparison to those China-provided numbers. It’s going to have to really explode soon or I don’t see the outcome you are suggesting that everyone panic over.

[DCBryan1]

I’m expecting a shipment from China, ordered before this stuff hit the fan, but the first place it is going is in the microwave.

Put it on the back deck in direct sunlight for afew hours. Thats all. Spray with lysol if you want overkill. Wash your hands and dont touch your face.

[TangoLimaSierra]

I’m expecting a shipment from China, ordered before this stuff hit the fan, but the first place it is going is in the microwave.

If the stuff hits your area remember the mailman could be infected. I plan on exposing everything to UV.

[Vermont Lt]

They just added 14,000 new cases two days ago.

Chart the cases in Wuhan, the slope of the curve is almost straight up.

You cannot look at this thing day to day and make judgements about speed.

On 1/22 there were about 650 cases. Today there are ten times that.

The cases outside of China are probably six weeks behind China. Six weeks ago I am not sure of the numbers—but it was close to double digits, maybe a little higher.

We are in the first inning of this event—maybe the second inning.