[VanDeKoik]

“Check back in three weeks and tell me how many of the cohort of currently diagnosed people outside China are still alive, pretty please? “

You mean after I was told two weeks ago that THIS was going to be the situation today?

And in 3 weeks when it hasnt changed much, I will still be told that “it’s right around the corner”.

[null and void]

Fair enough. Based on rather thin data the diagnosis to death interval looks like about three weeks. Take the number diagnosed three weeks ago and today's number and do the math.

Then after you've gotten that number, predict the numbers for the next three weeks based on that percentage. DO NOT share your numbers, just watch how close you are for a while.

My prediction from a couple days ago used a simpler algorithm, but my first number missed by only 42 souls, 2.8%

See if you can do better. I bet you can, if you are honest, even with dishonest numbers to start. If the ChiComs lie about the confirmed and deceased by the same percentages to save face, the death RATE will still be accurate.