Posted on 02/14/2020 9:45:49 AM PST by bolobaby
I should add that we currently have about 930,000 hospital beds in the U.S. for a population of 327M.
Related:
California lab says it discovered Coronavirus vaccine in 3 hours
https://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/3816512/posts
That’s always been the case. We can just take turns. :)
“They’re bullshit and don’t reflect how truly bad it is”
Very true!
YouTube pulled down several videos last week of the apocalyptic empty streets of Wuhan. All storefronts closed, and only two dudes riding bikes on the streets.
The body burning began a while back and you can see it on satellite maps.
Agree - although based on what I can see coming out of China - and hints from friends still working in ‘DC’, I’m guessing that current fatalities are in the 50-100k range.
That said, even though the numbers the last couple of days have spiked (due to a different diagnostic methodology) things seem to be calming down in Wuhan. We may dodge this bullet.
If it does break out world wide we are looking at a billion dead.
Im expecting a shipment from China, ordered before this stuff hit the fan, but the first place it is going is in the microwave.
“Im guessing that current fatalities are in the 50-100k range.”
Why are you “guessing”?
At this point it is a contest between randos on the internet and the CCP as to which group can be the most obnoxious with their crooked under-reporting and comical overestimating
This is not the fault of the people on the ground, some of whom are literally working themselves to death. To ask a nurse how many people she treated at the end of a 16-hour shift is going to get you the answer "everyone I could". Those are going to be raw numbers and carry with them their own error rates and that's just how it is. What is difficult to forgive is the stubborn insistence on laundering these numbers with an eye to political advantage that takes place at every level in a country where the political is everything. It is a tendency that is not absent from American politics as well. Prayers up for the docs and the nurses and curses for the system that is letting them and their patients down.
Let’s hope there would be a certified vaccine in 6 months. And let’s hope it would be before a billion fatalities. :)
You are not reading this correctly at all.
People who are still sick/infected are heading towards one of two outcomes - recovered or dead. These are *concluded* cases.
Look at is this way: 1,000 people get a new type of cancer at the same time. They all start chemotherapy or whatnot. While in treatment, they have yet to be cured or to die. When one of those two outcomes takes place, we can start determining the mortality rate. So, if 500 of them “conclude” their cases, with 250 dying and 250 recovering, we can see that half are dying off so far.
What’s going to happen to the other half? God only knows. It could be that the 250 that were cured were cured FAST and that the remaining 500 are all on their last legs. Or, it could be that the remaining 500 have one more treatment until being fully recovered. WE DON’T KNOW. We have NO IDEA what the disposition is of those cases in China is yet. Therefore, the ONLY data that makes sense to include in mortality rate is CONCLUDED CASES.
Also, the infection is *juuuuust* getting out of China now, so this comment...
“And yet for some reason this seems to never spark any curiosity seeing that the people outside of China are not dying anywhere near the same rate?”
...is also nonsensical.
And the problem is that we have no idea the total number of people that has it.
So why is there a “mortality rate” calculation being made when people will just as assuredly tell you that you have to multiply the number of people with it according to the CCP by x10, x100, or whatever?
If 10x more people have it, and the confirmed dead is the same, then doesn’t that nose-dive the mortality rate?
Any Chinese provided disease figures are so unreliable as to not form the basis for reasonable analysis. Unfortunately.
My humble attempt at making sense of it says that the disease course is 18 days to recovery, but 21 days to death. (On the average and in VERY broad terms.)
On 2/12, I predicted
2/13 21:30, 1425 dead, actual 1383, 2.8% low.
2/14 21:30, 1500 dead
2/15 21:30, 1990 dead
If Im close (±15%) Ill tell you how. So far, so good.
Although you should be able to figure out the method to my madness with that much info...
“Also, the infection is *juuuuust* getting out of China now”
No it isnt. It has been out for a while now.
How many people are dead outside of China?
According to the numbers in the article, not many at all. Is this virus just racist against Chinese people or does its ability to kill like it does there just not the same once it infects people outside of that country? We had video of people dead on the street, bleeding out of their heads or convulsing on cots. Where is this in the people that got infected that are out of the nation? Are they all just lucky?
“...is also nonsensical.”
Because conditions in communist China are absolutely great and could not possibly have a bearing on why so many people there die from it so eaisly?
Ok....sure.
“Our goal is to start phase one human testing in the U.S. early this summer.”
Doesn’t do much good now. Not sure it will be tested sufficiently by next Fall, if they expect this virus to re-emerge then.
Agenda 21's goal is about 7.5 billion dead.
You are right. There could be a large percentage who get infected that do not present.
That knocks the figure way down. But based on the current estimated R0 and the number of people dead in China (the real number) and the time that has elapsed - that’s maybe 20%?
Extremely rough guesses here. But we still seem to be looking at a very high fatality rate.
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