My humble attempt at making sense of it says that the disease course is 18 days to recovery, but 21 days to death. (On the average and in VERY broad terms.)
On 2/12, I predicted
2/13 21:30, 1425 dead, actual 1383, 2.8% low.
2/14 21:30, 1500 dead
2/15 21:30, 1990 dead
If I’m close (±15%) I’ll tell you how. So far, so good.
Although you should be able to figure out the method to my madness with that much info...
Here’s the thing - as I pointed out in my post, and others point out - China is fudging the numbers.
What we have to ask is: are they more likely to fudge the numbers UP or DOWN? What has history taught us? DO they want to look “totally in control” or “teetering on the edge of chaos?”
Some of the people on this thread are downright annoying. It’s like they didn’t even the TITLE of the post. Instead they accuse me of freaking out and claiming the end of the world is nigh.
Sigh.
Keep modeling your numbers. I’m watching this one closely. Too many crazy things going on in China right now that suggest a very, very serious situation in China. Like this...
https://twitter.com/xinyanyu/status/1228365678777962496
Does that spell apocalypse for the rest of the world? I go back to my title: “worry a little.”