[bolobaby]

I should add that we currently have about 930,000 hospital beds in the U.S. for a population of 327M.

[cuban leaf]

Related:

California lab says it discovered Coronavirus vaccine in 3 hours
https://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-chat/3816512/posts

[Roman_War_Criminal]

“They’re bullshit and don’t reflect how truly bad it is”

Very true!
YouTube pulled down several videos last week of the apocalyptic empty streets of Wuhan. All storefronts closed, and only two dudes riding bikes on the streets.

The body burning began a while back and you can see it on satellite maps.

[TheTimeOfMan]

Agree - although based on what I can see coming out of China - and hints from friends still working in ‘DC’, I’m guessing that current fatalities are in the 50-100k range.

That said, even though the numbers the last couple of days have spiked (due to a different diagnostic methodology) things seem to be calming down in Wuhan. We may dodge this bullet.

If it does break out world wide we are looking at a billion dead.

[ExpatCanuck]

I’m expecting a shipment from China, ordered before this stuff hit the fan, but the first place it is going is in the microwave.

[VanDeKoik]

" 64,457 total cases worldwide (63,863 in China) 1,384 total fatalities (1,381 in China) ...BUT ONLY... 7,155 recovered (7,072 in China) THEREFORE, for *resolved* cases, the current fatality rate *in China* is 1,381/(1,381 + 7,072) = 16.3%."

That is poor logic. The people that have not died are basically just sick, maybe just "infected". You cant just assume they are "causalities" because it pumps up the "OMG" numbers. You also cant then ascribe a "mortality rate" because you have no idea how many people there actually have it. Some of those people have gotten better and are replaced with another person that catches it.

64,457 total cases worldwide (63,863 in China)

1,384 total fatalities (1,381 in China)

And yet for some reason this seems to never spark any curiosity seeing that the people outside of China are not dying anywhere near the same rate?

[Billthedrill]

It's difficult to overestimate the damage done by flawed Chinese statistical reporting. Every informed essay I've seen on the topic (and this is one) carries with it the caveat that "this is our best guess based on bad numbers". What else can you say?

This is not the fault of the people on the ground, some of whom are literally working themselves to death. To ask a nurse how many people she treated at the end of a 16-hour shift is going to get you the answer "everyone I could". Those are going to be raw numbers and carry with them their own error rates and that's just how it is. What is difficult to forgive is the stubborn insistence on laundering these numbers with an eye to political advantage that takes place at every level in a country where the political is everything. It is a tendency that is not absent from American politics as well. Prayers up for the docs and the nurses and curses for the system that is letting them and their patients down.

[NorseViking]

Let’s hope there would be a certified vaccine in 6 months. And let’s hope it would be before a billion fatalities. :)

[9YearLurker]

Any Chinese provided disease figures are so unreliable as to not form the basis for reasonable analysis. Unfortunately.

[null and void]

Good analysis you got there. It would be a pity if something happened to it...

My humble attempt at making sense of it says that the disease course is 18 days to recovery, but 21 days to death. (On the average and in VERY broad terms.)

On 2/12, I predicted
2/13 21:30, 1425 dead, actual 1383, 2.8% low.
2/14 21:30, 1500 dead
2/15 21:30, 1990 dead

If I’m close (±15%) I’ll tell you how. So far, so good.

Although you should be able to figure out the method to my madness with that much info...

[null and void]

Bring Out Your Dead

Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.

The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.

So far the false positive rate is 100%.

At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.

*sigh* Such is life, and death...

If a quarantine saves just one child's life, it's worth it.

[wtd]

Timeline: The spread of the coronavirus (twitter video)

• https://twitter.com/Reuters/status/1228358237285576704

• December 31, 2019 China alerts WHO to a flu-like outbreak in Wuhan

• January 9, 2020 WHO declares it to be a new type of coronavirus from the same family as SARS and MERS

• January 13th, 2020 Authorities reveal the first case of the #coronavirus outside of China after a woman was quarantined in Thailand

• January 20, 2020 China confirms person-to-person spread after four die

• January 21, 2020 Face masks sell out in Shanghai

• January 22, 2020 Deaths rise to 17, more than 540 cases are confirmed International airports carry out thermal screenings Chinese Health Commissioner Li Bin states "The virus has the potential to mutate and there is a risk of further spread of the epidemic.

• January 23, 2020 Wuhan goes into lockdown and residents try to flee the virus-hit province.

• January 24, 2020 China aims to build a 1,000 bed hospital in six days and sends more medical staff to Wuhan

• January 30, 2020 WHO declares the virus a global emergency

• February 3, 2020 Public mouring and anger mount after the death of Dr. Li Wenliang who warned of the virus

• February 4, 2020 Drugmakers race to find a vaccine or treatment but warn there is a long way to go

• February 11, 2020 China's coronavirus death toll passes 1,000 surpassing that of the SARS epidemic

  ******

  Is the Coronavirus now unstoppable? New Data (video)

  

  *****

• AFP Breaking News via Twitter: First coronavirus case in Africa: Egypt health ministry

• AFP Breaking News via Twitter: US will test people with flu symptoms for novel coronavirus: official

[oh8eleven]

... people will come RUNNING for our southern border hoping to both escape and get medical care.

That's why we have a military - we need to use them.

[Robert DeLong]

The Doors - The End

[bolobaby]

Updated number on health care workers in China infected. I had 500, latest article say 1,700 now.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/virus-cases-rise-as-experts-question-china-s-numbers-1.4811641

[kidd]

Presently, All cases in America have been controlled. The infected have been identified, isolated and treated.

Start to worry when someone becomes infected who has not travelled anywhere. Hopefully, this won’t happen until it gets warm outside.

Also, it would’ve been nice if Paul Ryan hadn’t interfered with the BUILDING OF THE WALL.

[wtd]

1200 bodies are being burned everyday

More than 1.5 million are under observation

Not 20,000 or 30,000, more than 50,000 are gone

• Twitter video link

[wtd]

Extract from the book "The Eyes of Darkness" published in 1996... 'Wuhan-400' 'Perfect bio-weapon'

• Link to source tweet

[wtd]

BREAKING: Yokohama City Fire Bureau in Japan just confirmed new #coronavirus case, YCFB employee in his 30s, who has transported a COVID19 patient from the Diamond Princess cruise ship. (TBS News)

• Link to source tweet

[SpeedyInTexas]

COVID-19 is 30 times more deadly than the seasonal flu based on current numbers.

2.1% vs 0.07%