Posted on 05/06/2015 6:42:05 PM PDT by BenLurkin
Round and round it goes, but exactly where a failed Russian space cargo ship will fall to Earth on this week is a guessing game.
On April 28, Russia's uncrewed Progress 59 supply ship streaked into orbit atop a Soyuz launcher, intended to dock with the International Space Station. But shortly after liftoff ... Russian mission control team could not command the cargo vessel packed with nearly 3 tons of supplies.
Current forecasts predict that the Progress should fall to Earth in an uncontrolled, destructive nose-dive on Thursday (May 8) between 3:11 a.m. and 5:26 a.m. EDT (0711-0826 GMT). Some media reports from Russia are citing a Friday re-entry target. A more refined re-entry date and time will become available, according to experts tracking the spacecraft
...
There is the potential for pieces of Progress 59 to survive the fiery plunge through Earth's atmosphere and reach the surface, Krag said.
"With every re-entry of a large structure from space you can expect a small fraction to survive," Krag said. But there is an extremely small probability, he said, that somebody would be injured from the fall. "That's because the number of objects that survive is small … and the area over which they are distributed is so huge and mostly unpopulated," Krag said. Also, the large fuel load onboard Progress should burn up before it reaches Earth, he said.
Bill Ailor, a Distinguished Engineer and a re-entry and space debris expert at The Aerospace Corporation in El Segundo, California, agrees with Krag's view.
Ailor said that the rule of thumb for re-entering spacecraft is that anywhere from 10 percent to 40 percent of the dry mass of the vehicle — the mass without propellants, liquids, and stored gas — will survive and impact the Earth's surface.
(Excerpt) Read more at space.com ...
I’ve never understood the science behind objects burning up upon entering the atmosphere. Interesting.
Could it please fall on Baltimore!
well I hope it doesnt fall on a RED state.....
Could it please fall on Baltimore!
I vote for the Black House.
If it’s white, they’ll call it racist.
I don’t know, but if a piece falls in my yard I wonder how much I can get for it on eBay.
It will fall on Tehran and Obummer will promptly launch another Mideast Apology Tour.
lol. probably a bunch :) With my luck, i’ll be found under it some time tomorrow evening...
LOL! That might hurt.
Air friction.
Thanks guys. Fascinating.
you ever get rug burns ? same idea
Today is Wednesday the 6th.
Tomorrow is Thursday the 7th.
Article says, “Current forecasts predict that the Progress should fall to Earth in an uncontrolled, destructive nose-dive on Thursday (May 8) between 3:11 a.m. and 5:26 a.m. EDT (0711-0826 GMT).”
Is it me, or what ???
to Earth
Sadly predictions are that Hubble also will come tumbling down a lot sooner that most thought.
I heard it was headed toward Chappaqua ... but I don’t know .....
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