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Real Doomsday: Earth Dead in 2.8 Billion Years
Discovery ^ | July 2, 2013 | Ray Villard

Posted on 07/02/2013 7:42:10 PM PDT by DogByte6RER

apocalypse photo: apocalypse Apocalypse.jpg

Real Doomsday: Earth Dead in 2.8 Billion Years

The Rolling Stones’ Mick Jaggar crooned “Time Is On My Side” in the 1964 classic rock hit of the same title. Sadly, that’s not the case for habitable planets orbiting sun-like stars according to a recent computer simulation by astrobiologist Jack O’Malley-James of the University of St Andrews in the United Kingdom.

“A combination of slow and rapid environmental changes will result in the extinction of all species on Earth, with the last inhabitants disappearing within 2.8 billion years from now,” O’Malley-James predicts.

He says that we’ve got about 2 billion years left before the oceans will have evaporated leaving behind a desiccated sand dune landscape as alien-looking as that of Mars. The last vestiges of life on Earth will have retreated to the few scattered reservoirs of water left on our planet.

As is well-known from stellar evolution theory the sun will remain stable over the next few billion years but become steadily brighter as fusion reactions in the core change.

His modeling shows that within the next billion years, increased evaporation rates and future chemical reactions with rainwater will draw more and more carbon dioxide from the Earth’s atmosphere. The falling levels of carbon dioxide will lead to the extinction of plants and animals and Earth will become a world of microbes. At the same time, the Earth will be depleted of oxygen and will be drying out as the rising temperatures lead to the evaporation of the oceans.

“The far-future Earth will be very hostile to life by this point.” O’Malley-James says. “All living things require liquid water, so any remaining life will be restricted to pockets of liquid water, perhaps at cooler, higher altitudes (as with the lakes on Titan, pictured right) or in caves or underground. This life will need to cope with many extremes like high temperatures and intense ultraviolet radiation.”

This gloomy forecast is sobering because there has been a lot of news about finding Earth-sized planets in the habitable zones around other stars. But what’s mostly overlooked is the temporal dimension. How old are the planets? What is their stage of evolution?

Though the sun burns as a main sequence star for 10 billion years, the window of opportunity for advanced life on Earth is about 25 percent of the sun’s lifetime, according to this latest model.

Those exoplanets where conditions have deteriorated to where life has moved underground (such as is likely the case with Mars) have feeble or no chemical biotracers to study from light-years away. “Dying Earths will have a nitrogen and carbon-dioxide atmosphere with methane being the only sign of active life,” O’Malley-James predicts.

Recent estimates for the number of Earth-like planets in the galaxy range from 17 to 100 billion. Let’s be especially conservative and say 10 billion are Earth clones. Most of these will orbit red dwarf stars that are far more long-lived that our sun. This leaves us with 1 billion Earths orbiting solar-type stars. But roughly 250 million of these are at a stage right now where they can support complex life according to O’Malley-James’ model.

Still, these are not bad odds for finding someone else out there in the galaxy.

I would further argue that alien civilizations orbiting a sunlike star are more likely to pursue interstellar colonization because of the comparatively short lifespan of their home star. And extraterrestrials living in binary systems (like Alpha Centauri) would further be motivated to pursue space-faring because they want to explore inhabitable planets orbiting the companion star.

Alternatively, aliens may chose to slowly move their home world into a wider orbit that backs off from a heating-up star. This requires no more science that a straightforward application of Newtonian mechanics. Newly forming stars are dynamically shuffling planets around all the time.

Therefore, the future is not so dour if we plan on either moving Earth to a cooler place in space, or leaving our home world behind to colonize another star.


TOPICS: Chit/Chat; Miscellaneous; Science; Society; UFO's; Weird Stuff
KEYWORDS: apocalypse; catastrophism; doomsday; earth; futurism; iteotwawki; itstheendoftheworld; predictions; preppers; sciencefiction; scifi; survival; xplanets
lost ark photo: Warehouse Raiders_Of_The_Lost_Ark_Government_.jpg D@mn ... I've only stockpiled enough provisions for the next 1.5 billion years. I need to get to work!
1 posted on 07/02/2013 7:42:10 PM PDT by DogByte6RER
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doomsday gif photo: Doomsday 222216_218376188191667_100000578626402_826792_2377929_n.jpg
2 posted on 07/02/2013 7:42:47 PM PDT by DogByte6RER ("Loose lips sink ships")
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To: DogByte6RER
I'm prepped for the sun going red giant. I know Someone that's got me covered.

/johnny

3 posted on 07/02/2013 7:44:53 PM PDT by JRandomFreeper (Gone Galt)
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To: DogByte6RER

““A combination of slow and rapid environmental changes will result in the extinction of all species on Earth, with the last inhabitants disappearing within 2.8 billion years from now,””


Curse you Dogbyte for posting this! I don’t know how I’m going to be able to sleep tonight!


4 posted on 07/02/2013 7:46:45 PM PDT by Greetings_Puny_Humans
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To: Greetings_Puny_Humans

Even worse ... despite all of this gloom and doom, we’ll STILL be stuck with Obamacare.


5 posted on 07/02/2013 7:47:55 PM PDT by DogByte6RER ("Loose lips sink ships")
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To: DogByte6RER

Cool. Now I know how far ahead I need to post-date my checks.


6 posted on 07/02/2013 7:48:55 PM PDT by Jyotishi (Seeking the truth, a fact at a time.)
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To: DogByte6RER

It’s rumored he’ll be appearing in the “Man of Steel” sequel.


7 posted on 07/02/2013 7:54:55 PM PDT by Bratch
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To: DogByte6RER

In 2.8 billion years evidence of man’s ephemeral existence on earth will have been molded, folded and melted into the geologic record.


8 posted on 07/02/2013 7:57:21 PM PDT by Rebelbase (Our parents: The Greatest Generation. Their kids and grand kids: The Stupidest.)
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To: JRandomFreeper

“I’m prepped for the sun going red giant. I know Someone that’s got me covered.”
____________________________________________
I am far more worried about man destroying himself, long before the sun kills us.
The reelection of Obumbo tells me that man has passed his “use before date”.
As for finding a new world to live on, one had best find those imaginary wormholes to imaginary parallel universes, or find the mythical way to exceed the speed of light.
Give me warp 10, Scotty.


9 posted on 07/02/2013 7:59:12 PM PDT by AlexW
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To: DogByte6RER
His modeling shows that within the next billion years, increased evaporation rates and future chemical reactions with rainwater will draw more and more carbon dioxide from the Earth’s atmosphere. The falling levels of carbon dioxide will lead to the extinction of plants and animals

By reducing our carbon emissions we are hastening the day the earth dies.

10 posted on 07/02/2013 8:00:13 PM PDT by oldbrowser (We have a rogue government in Washington)
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To: Jyotishi

In 2 Billion Years, we’re going to be saying, “My how time flies.”


11 posted on 07/02/2013 8:00:21 PM PDT by UCANSEE2 (The monsters are due on Maple Street)
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To: DogByte6RER

I’m sorry that I won’t be around to see the end.


12 posted on 07/02/2013 8:11:12 PM PDT by puppypusher (The World is going to the dogs.)
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To: DogByte6RER
In 2.8 Billion years they are going to have over head power lines running down downtown streets?

Thank goodness I won't be there to see that outrage!

13 posted on 07/02/2013 8:16:24 PM PDT by Michael.SF. (0bama lied, Stevens died, now Obama covers up the lies.)
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To: JRandomFreeper

2.8 Billion....hmmm....

yep....I’ll be outta ammo by then...


14 posted on 07/02/2013 8:21:33 PM PDT by G Larry (Let his days be few; and let another take his office. Psalms 109:8)
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To: JRandomFreeper

Johnny
I got your back!


15 posted on 07/02/2013 8:28:55 PM PDT by wjcsux ("In a time of universal deceit, telling the truth becomes a revolutionary act." - George Orwell)
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To: DogByte6RER
Better cancel my hair appointment.

funny picdump 424 640 23

16 posted on 07/02/2013 8:30:16 PM PDT by SkyDancer (Live your life in such a way that the Westboro church will want to picket your funeral.)
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To: Rebelbase
"In 2.8 billion years evidence of man’s ephemeral existence on earth will have been molded, folded and melted into the geologic record."

Yup.

Would love to have a time machine to witness the Hoover Dam eroding away into nothingness as well as the mushrooms on Manhattan Island.

17 posted on 07/02/2013 8:31:18 PM PDT by SnuffaBolshevik (In a tornado, even turkeys can fly.)
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To: DogByte6RER

Wow I better look fast for a hubby =)


18 posted on 07/02/2013 8:33:51 PM PDT by Patriot Babe
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To: DogByte6RER

19 posted on 07/02/2013 8:35:56 PM PDT by fidelis (Zonie and USAF Cold Warrior)
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To: DogByte6RER

Read Revelation Chapter 21.


20 posted on 07/02/2013 8:37:16 PM PDT by beethovenfan (If Islam is the solution, the "problem" must be freedom.)
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To: DogByte6RER

We’ll be gone several hundred times from space rocks before then.


21 posted on 07/02/2013 8:42:48 PM PDT by PeaceBeWithYou (De Oppresso Liber! (50 million and counting in Afghanistan and Iraq))
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To: DogByte6RER

Obama will still be blaming George Bush.


22 posted on 07/02/2013 8:45:25 PM PDT by Colonel_Flagg (Army dad. And damned proud of it.)
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To: PeaceBeWithYou

That’s right! Maybe Yellowstone before that!


23 posted on 07/02/2013 9:05:25 PM PDT by Empireoftheatom48 (God help the Republic but will he?)
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To: DogByte6RER

Bloomberg needs to hop right on this and build some sea walls or suns shades or something RIGHT NOW BEFORE IT IS TOO LATE!


24 posted on 07/02/2013 9:07:13 PM PDT by catnipman (Cat Nipman: Vote Republican in 2012 and only be called racist one more time!)
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To: DogByte6RER

billion years! Whew, for moment I thought he said million.


25 posted on 07/02/2013 9:10:10 PM PDT by Cold Heart
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To: DogByte6RER

I hope our tax dollars didn’t pay for this.


26 posted on 07/02/2013 9:14:01 PM PDT by aimhigh (Guns do not kill people. Abortion kills people.)
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To: DogByte6RER
“A combination of slow and rapid environmental changes will result in the extinction of all species on Earth, with the last inhabitants disappearing within 2.8 billion years from now,” O’Malley-James predicts.

Maybe, just maybe we can put the end off 20 years or so by everyone turning off our air conditioners, stop eating meat and not driving. It's for our children.

27 posted on 07/02/2013 9:28:29 PM PDT by Mike Darancette (Fight the culture of nothing.)
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To: DogByte6RER

Damn, I gotta make another ammo run.


28 posted on 07/02/2013 9:31:16 PM PDT by Doomonyou (Let them eat Lead.)
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To: puppypusher

“I’m sorry that I won’t be around to see the end.”

Maybe not: http://www.patburt.com/


29 posted on 07/02/2013 10:44:07 PM PDT by stars & stripes forever ((Blessed is the nation whose God is the Lord!))
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To: SkyDancer

Haha! That is the only cartoon I ever wanted to draw. I thought of it in about 1970, and my version was going to be two astronauts, one collecting rock samples and the other looking at the exploding earth. The caption would be the geologist’s part of the conversation, “Oh, about twelve days worth. Why?”

Can’t draw to save my life, though.


30 posted on 07/03/2013 12:04:46 AM PDT by InMemoriam (Have a seat over there, Mr. Mohammed. Aisha, go play on your swingset, honey.)
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To: DogByte6RER

we need to do something about this now! /s


31 posted on 07/03/2013 2:04:42 AM PDT by SMGFan (SMGfan is not "Sub Machine Gun" fan)
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To: 75thOVI; agrace; aimhigh; Alice in Wonderland; AndrewC; aragorn; aristotleman; Avoiding_Sulla; ...

Thanks DogByte6RER.


32 posted on 07/03/2013 3:57:36 AM PDT by SunkenCiv (McCain or Romney would have been worse, if you're a dumb ass.)
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To: KevinDavis; annie laurie; Knitting A Conundrum; Viking2002; Ernest_at_the_Beach; Mmogamer; ...

Thanks DogByte6RER.
 
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33 posted on 07/03/2013 3:58:39 AM PDT by SunkenCiv (McCain or Romney would have been worse, if you're a dumb ass.)
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To: DogByte6RER

Helen Thomas will be there to cover it.


34 posted on 07/03/2013 4:11:25 AM PDT by BulletBobCo
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To: AlexW

Ya. We are basically thinking animals in which the animal part tends to dominate.

We will be just smart enough cause our own destruction and know when it is happening but not smart enough to stop it.


35 posted on 07/03/2013 8:11:57 AM PDT by dhs12345
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To: DogByte6RER
He says that we’ve got about 2 billion years left before the oceans will have evaporated leaving behind a desiccated sand dune landscape as alien-looking as that of Mars.


36 posted on 07/03/2013 9:23:00 AM PDT by JRios1968 (I'm guttery and trashy, with a hint of lemon. - Laz)
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