Posted on 11/05/2018 2:38:23 PM PST by EyesOfTX
The Evening Campaign Update (Because The Campaign Never Ends)
[I will be live-blogging the mid-term election results here starting at 6:00 p.m. Central Time Tuesday. Please join me in the comments section for tons of fun as the results either make me look like the smartest guy on the planet or a damn fool. Could go either way.]
Some pro tips for Election Night Results-Watching:
We may have a very good idea on how the House balance of power will end up fairly early in the evening. – A large number of the “tossup” seats in this election are in closely-divided districts in Florida, Virginia, New York and Pennsylvania, all in the Eastern time zone. So, by 8 p.m. Central Time, we should have a pretty good idea of what the trend in those districts is, or if there is no trend at all.
There aren’t many other key House districts in the Central or Mountain time zones. – Once you get out of the states on the Eastern Seaboard, you only have a handful of key House districts until you get to California, where the Democrats are heavily contesting 10 remaining GOP-held seats. If the Ds haven’t clinched the majority in the House by the time polls close in California, it’s going to be a long night. If they have, the state loses its importance in the grand scheme of things, though it will still be interesting to see if Rs like Dana Rohrabacher can hang in there for one more term in office.
If the House goes early, the Senate probably will, too. – Here is where Florida is such a key. The Republicans are going to end up at least 60,000 votes ahead of 2016 in the early voting results. Trump won Florida by 117,000 votes in 2016, so if you add 60,000 to that, you get a fairly high hill for incumbent Democrat Bill Nelson to climb in his run for re-election against sitting GOP Governor Rick Scott. If we see Scott losing this race by, say, 5% or more when the early returns come in, then that will likely mean it’s going to be along night for the GOP. If we see Scott keeping it closer than that in the early returns, that means good news for Republicans is probably going to be coming in all night long.
Georgia’s governor’s race is also key. – This race shouldn’t be as close as the polls claim it is. If the early returns show a neck-and-neck race here, then you can probably expect a pretty late night overall.
Don’t be surprised if Irish Bob O’Rourke leads Ted Cruz early in Texas. – The major metro areas in Texas lean Democrat as a whole, and their returns always come in earlier than the rural counties. Hillary Clinton led Donald Trump by ~160,000 votes when the early voting was reported at 7:00 by the Secretary of State’s office. But then the rural counties started to come in and that more than reversed. In total, rural Texas went for Trump by more than 1 million votes in 2016. Expect to see a similar dynamic in this race.
Ignore leaked “exit polls.” – At some point around mid-day, one more more major media outlets will report on “leaked” exit poll information showing Democrats well ahead and moving towards their long-coveted “blue wave.” Ignore those reports. First of all, these “exit polls” are commissioned by those same damn media outlets, and the “leaks” are designed to depress GOP turnout on Election Day. They’ve been playing this despicable game since 2000. The good news is, it never works.
It’s Ok to watch CNN. – Aside from the obvious benefits of seeing all the long faces over there if the Republicans have a good night, John King was actually much better and more even-handed at reporting on results and trends than anyone else on Election Night 2016. Fox News was actually the worst place to be on Election Night 2016, as they focused far more on giving everyone with a contributor contract time to weigh in on stuff they know nothing about than on actually reporting on election results. Thus, Fox News was among the last to recognize the reality that Trump was actually about to win.
Whenever Juan Williams or Shep Smith appear on your TV screen, change channels. – Trust me, it’s better for your blood pressure.
Pace yourself on your favorite beverage. – Don’t hit the juice too hard early, because it could be a long night, just like 2016. And don’t break out the champagne too early like all the Democrats did two years ago – it’ll go flat in just a few hours, and that’s never good.
Personally, I’ll be drinking Tito’s and Topo Chico with a twist of lime and a couple of cubes of sugared ginger root – my own personal Texas Mule recipe. If Florida goes bad early, that’ll probably start showing up in my updates around 8:30 Central Time.
Be careful out there.
That is all.
Follow me on Twitter at @GDBlackmon
CNN hands down had the best election night reporting in 2016.
Bummer for me. I have to be at work at 5:00 am Wednesday. My alarm goes off at 3:45. I pulled an all-nighter in 2016. All of us at work did! Good news is I live on the East Coast so as DB said, I'll know early on how the night should turn out.
Probably still pull an all-nighter though.
My election night watching tips, based on the 2016 election coverage:
1. Turn the channel to MSNBC.
2. Make popcorn.
3. Enjoy.
I’m going to do my level best not to watch. I will be much healthier if I just go to bed at 9 and then see what happened when I wake up in the morning.
Here is my pro tip.
By 5Pm tomorrow night, turn off all broadcast and cable news TV shows, turn off all ABC/CBS/CNN/MSNBC/NBC/NPR shows completely, do not use your Internet browser to find or see any news at all, do not listen to radio other than 24/7 music channels, turn off any cable sports channels that are connected to the the major broadcast network channels (ESPN is connected to ABC as is all Disney channels), watch movies on all movies channels or Netflix or watch old TV shows on the old TV show channels, or shows on the HGTV or Velocity channels - in other words avoid any channel that is going to “report” the news.
You’ll get the results when you get up, and that will be soon ebough for you to either relax or get ready for the next battle. Watching any of the “results” crap on TV on election night (a) will NOT alter any results, and (b) might not be good for either your blood pressure or your anger-management.
The serenity prayer is a good one to go to bed to on election night.
God grant me the serenity
to accept the things I cannot change;
courage to change the things I can;
and wisdom to know the difference.
Living one day at a time;
enjoying one moment at a time;
accepting hardships as the pathway to peace;
taking, as He did, this sinful world
as it is, not as I would have it;
trusting that He will make all things right
if I surrender to His Will;
that I may be reasonably happy in this life
and supremely happy with Him
forever in the next.
Amen.
Also will be the inevitable challenges in races too close to call where they recount and recount until the Dem (miraculously) wins. So... it could be a long night... or longer...
Pro Tip. Don’t. The Clown media sets new levels of incompetence on Election nights. Get a good night sleep and check what actually happened Wed am
I’ll switch between CNN and MSNBC....I live their misery.
1. Vote.
2. Pray.
3. Go to bed.
Listen to Rush 3 to 6 and then skip watching any TV news until 8pm , at the earliest. Don’t visit internet news sites all day until 8PM as well. Go watch some fun TV shows etc on demand. There will be plenty of time to follow the election at 9pM. Not worth the roller coaster ride... like 2016.
Been doing that since 1994. 1996 was ugly as was 2000. Off year election 2006 too. BHO wins in 2008 & 2012
We r going to follow tweets of certain tweeters like bill mitchel. I’ll follow FR while family checks tweets. FR usually has threads on tweets. FNC will be on if they behave themselves. May switch to LIVE programming on YouTube. It will be fun
What is really fun is to go celebrate at county’s GOP HQs. But have to stay up late and I’m getting old.
http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/us-politics/ct-election-house-races-20181105-story.html
Has a list of the FIRST interesting Districts to report results (I’d add NC 2, and 13 too)
There were plenty of polls on these races to compare the actual results to and get an idea of what the difference will be between the polling and the actual results in all the races... well, in general.
Good luck to us.
2018 Governorships are important also, because long term they will be directing the 2020-2030 redistricting. That’s why Florida is so important at the governor level elect the communist Gillum and Florida could follow PA with redistricting that favors the democrats, due to court order, regardless of whom has control of the state house.
Excellent, David. I will log on to your site.
Keep an eye on Indiana, most polls close at 6pm EST, except for 6 in the northwest and 6 in the southwest that close at 7 EST. The CST polls usually hand Dems up to 100,000 plurality. But you don’t have to wait that long, to get a sense of the outcome. You’ll know how it’s going to go by 630 by counting counties.
Like every state, Indiana Democrats win the 3-C’s: Capitals, Colleges, and Cities. In a comfy statewide GOP win (and a respectable DEM loss), the DEMS win 13 counties:
- 4 in a horizontal strip in the northwest: Lake, Porter, LaPorte, St. Joes (Notre Dame)
- 4 in a vertical strip in the west-central: Vermillion, Vigo (ISU), Sullivan, Knox
- 4 isolated counties in a “Y” pattern with Indianapolis in the middle: Marion, Delaware (Ball State), Tippecanoe (Boilermakers), Monroe (Hoosiers)
- 1 dinky county on the Ohio River, Perry
If that vertical strip (Vermillion to Knox) looks a little pinkish, guaranteed win for Braun and it could be a very nice night for Republicans nationally. However, if you see blue counties in the middle of the state starting to emerge and connect with each other, then it’s getting close. The tipping point comes around 20-22 counties statewide.
Don’t get too excited about an early lead for Braun, as mentioned, Chicagoland polls in Gary/Hammond/Hobart close an hour later and net up to 100,000 votes in favor of Donnelly.
Anyhow, that’s my election night “tell” suggestion: Count the Counties. At 630pm EST count the Indiana counties that are blue, and add 3 for the Central time closures.
- less than 19: looking good GOP
- 19-22; very close
- greater than 22: uh oh...
imho CNN has the best website if you like grinding through data, which is my preference, with the TV talking heads as white noise in the background.
I’m going to watch for a while, but I’d love to see if we (Republicans) will keep the house...
I thought the D’s went up in Florida
I’m going to try doing the same. Staying up until the wee hours won’t do me any good at all.
I think I’ll go to YouTube and watch some old 1940-50’s westerns. No mater who wins on Wednesday, it will not result in 100% of the people being happy.
Wolf was begging King for good news for Hillary. King said “There is none.”
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