Posted on 08/07/2015 7:46:36 AM PDT by ken5050
I'm interested in what others here think of this scenario, hopefully assessing it as objectively as possible. It would seem that statistically it offers a high probability of winning the White House.
In 2012, Obama won 71% of the latino vote, to Mitt's 27%.
Let's assume that Hillary is the Democrat nominee, and that she chooses ( as has been widely speculated) Julian Castro as her running mate. Castro is vulnerable as being totally unqualified for the job ( what would he do with the 3 AM phone call?) but for purposes of this analysis, I want an Hispanic on the Democrat ticket.
Let's say the GOP slate is Cruz/Rubio, or Rubio/Cruz.
All other things being equal..i.e Hillary holds onto nearly all of Obama's black support ( which seems unlikely).. the question now is what percentage of the hispanic vote could the GOP capture? If they got to 40%, the election is OVER. Republicans win the WH.
And with a conservative ticket, this time the GOP base won't stay home, turnout will increase, and this will lead to multiple unexpected down-ballot wins for the Republicans. It could result in a Republican landslide across the board.
Tell me what's wrong with this admittedly speculative analysis
No more than otherwise. We are polarized. The Latinos are going Dim like they did for ODimwit.
5% at the most.
But Cruz and Rubio would also never be on the same ticket.
Why not?
They’re both Cuban... I don’t know how that connects to Mexicans and S/C Americans, maybe not that much.
Rubio gets into ‘diversity’ sometimes and such,
but Cruz just runs as a white guy lol
Generally, “Hispanics” are more socialist than they are “mexican, etc.” and I think they will vote in massive numbers for the Democrat no matter what names are on the GOP ticket ... as they always have.
Nothing.
They are racists and hate “immigrants”....
Many hispanics are more hostile to cubans than they are to european whites.
I sorta see your point...I was thinking like a Dem..seeing a spanish speaking bloc..
Marco Rubio is, compared to all the others, a little boy.
Cruz/Fiorina
Lots of good cabinet picks.
In 2004, it was reported Bush took 44% Analysis showed this to be really about 38% This was the term he promised “immigration reform,” so I doubt Cruz would appeal to them. Rubio, with the give the illegals the country attitude, would lose more than Hispanic voters.
Probably about the same % as last time around
“The Latinos are going Dim like they did for ODimwit.”
exactly. Wetbacks vote Dummycrap. It’s ingrained into their DNA the way Reagan is in ours.
I don’t think Rubio does well in the Latino community against democrats, and I know Cruz does worse than Rubio. Such a ticket would tank.
Rubio... couldn’t beat Michael Dukakis.
How many votes would a Cruz/Rubio ticket lose among non-Hispanic whites, the base of the GOP?
In 2012 Hispanics made up 10% of the total vote. Blacks 13%.
Trump/Cruz
When the Hispanic shows up that could get “Hispanics” in droves, it will be a Mexican-American type like Susan Martinez, some people are for her too.
I do think Rubio and Cruz nonetheless, have some appeal to Hispanics, maybe Rubio moreso.
Only the racist ones.
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