Corona Virus Daily Thread #42

There must be some kind of way out of here Said the joker to the thief

ping to new thread

Bring Out Your Dead

Post to me or FReep mail to be on/off the Bring Out Your Dead ping list.

The purpose of the “Bring Out Your Dead” ping list (formerly the “Ebola” ping list) is very early warning of emerging pandemics, as such it has a high false positive rate.

The false positive rate was 100%.

At some point we may well have a high mortality pandemic, and likely as not the “Bring Out Your Dead” threads will miss the beginning entirely.

*sigh* Such is life, and death...

If a quarantine saves just one child's or one old fart’s life, it's worth it.

Noon updates:
FL
Total Cases 16,364
Positive Residents 15,883
Hospitalizations 2,149
Deaths 354
https://experience.arcgis.com/experience/96dd742462124fa0b38ddedb9b25e429
MN
Cases 1,242
Deaths 50
Hospitalized as of today 145 (total 293), 63 ICU currently
https://www.health.state.mn.us/diseases/coronavirus/situation.html
AZ
3,018 cases with 89 deaths
https://www.azdhs.gov/preparedness/epidemiology-disease-control/infectious-disease-epidemiology/index.php#novel-coronavirus-home

ND
269 Positive Cases
8721 Negative
8990 Total Tested
101 Recovered
14 Currently Hospitalized
34 Total Hospitalized
5 Deaths
https://www.health.nd.gov/diseases-conditions/coronavirus/north-dakota-coronavirus-cases

MS
2,260 cases with 76 fatalities
https://msdh.ms.gov/msdhsite/_static/14,0,420.html#caseTable
ME
Confirmed Cases1 Recovered Hospitalized Deaths
560 202 105 16
https://www.maine.gov/dhhs/mecdc/infectious-disease/epi/airborne/coronavirus.shtml
NC
3,651 cases
65 deaths
398 hospitialized
https://www.ncdhhs.gov/divisions/public-health/covid19/covid-19-nc-case-count
WV
485 cases, 4 fatal
https://dhhr.wv.gov/COVID-19/Pages/default.aspx
VA
4,042 cases
685 hospitalizations
109 deaths
http://www.vdh.virginia.gov/coronavirus/
COVID-19 Statistics in Maryland
Number of Confirmed Cases: 6,185
Number of negative test results: 35,344
Number of Deaths: 138
Hospitalizations: 1,348 ever hospitalized
Released From Isolation: 376
https://coronavirus.maryland.gov/

DC
#40
Today, 10:37 AM
DC COVID-19 Data for April 8, 2020
Total Tested Overall: 8724
Total Positives: 1523
Total Lives Lost: 32
Total Recovered 393
https://coronavirus.dc.gov/page/coronavirus-data
IN
Total Positive Cases 6,351 Positive tests reflect results from ISDH and results submitted by private laboratories
Total Deaths 245
Total Tested 32,133
https://coronavirus.in.gov/2393.htm
SD
Number of Cases 447
Ever Hospitalized* 27
Deaths** 6
Recovered 161
https://doh.sd.gov/news/Coronavirus.aspx
PA
COVID-19 Data for Pennsylvania*
Negative 87,374
Positive 18,228
Deaths 338
https://www.health.pa.gov/topics/disease/coronavirus/Pages/Cases.aspx

GA
COVID-19 Confirmed Cases: No. Cases (%)
Total 10566 (100%)
Hospitalized 2159(20.43%)
Deaths 379 (3.59%)
https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report

ITALY
Coronavirus in Italy, 143,626 positive cases and 18,279 deaths

In Italy, since the beginning of the Coronavirus epidemic, at least 143,626 people have contracted the Sars-CoV-2 virus (+4,204 more than yesterday for a 3% growth). Of these, 18,279 (+610, + 3.4%) died and 28,470 (+1,979, + 7.5%) were discharged. Currently the positive subjects of which there is certainty are 96,877 (+1615, + 1.7%. The count rises to 143,626 - as mentioned above - if in the calculation there are also the dead and the cured, ie counting all the people who have been found positive for the virus since the outbreak). The data were provided by the Civil Protection.

The hospitalized patients with symptoms are 28,399; 3,605 (-88, -2.4%: a steadily decreasing figure for five days) are in intensive care, while 64,873 are in fiduciary home isolation.

Here you will find a «reading guide» of the bulletin, with the explanation of the various items; here the experts explain how long it will take to understand if the restrictions work, here instead what are the predictions regarding the peak. This is the map of contagion in Italy. Here the newsletters of the past few days.

The data Region by Region

The data provided below, and divided by Region, is that of the total cases (number of people found positive since the beginning of the epidemic: includes dead and recovered). In the photo above, the one of the currently positive subjects is visible. The change indicates the number of new cases registered in the last 24 hours.
Lombardy 54,802 (+1388, + 2.6%)
Emilia-Romagna 18,677 (+443, + 2.4%)
Veneto 12,933 (+253, + 4.2%)
Piedmont 14,522 (639, + 4.6%)
Brands 4,955 (+96, +2)
Liguria 5,020 (+114, + 2.3%)
Campania 3,344 (+76, + 2.3%)
Tuscany 6,552 (+173, + 2.7%)
Sicily 2,232 (+73, + 3.4%)
Lazio 4,429 (+163, + 3.8%)
Friuli-Venezia Giulia 2,299 (+81, + 3.7%)
Abruzzo 1,931 (+72, + 3.9%)
Puglia 2716 (+82, + 3.1%)
Umbria 1,298 (+9, + 0.7%)
Bolzano 1,903 (+68, + 3.7%)
Calabria 874 (+15, + 1.7%)
Sardinia 1026 (+51, + 5.2%)
Aosta Valley 868 (+18, + 2.1%)
Trento 2,708 (+106, + 4.1%)
Molise 234 (+8, + 3.5%)
Basilicata 303 (+6, + 2%)
https://www.corriere.it/salute/malattie_infettive/20_aprile_09/coronavirus-italia-143626-casi-positivi-18279-morti-bollettino-9-aprile-1442e2aa-7a74-11ea-880f-c93e42aa5d4e.shtml

Eurosurv. Excess cases of influenza-like illnesses synchronous with coronavirus disease (COVID-19) epidemic, France, March 2020
Today, 12:09 PM
Excess cases of influenza-like illnesses synchronous with coronavirus disease (COVID-19) epidemic, France, March 2020
Pierre-Yves Boëlle1, Cécile Souty1, Titouan Launay1, Caroline Guerrisi1, Clément Turbelin1, Sylvie Behillil5, Vincent Enouf5, Chiara Poletto2, Bruno Lina8,9, Sylvie van der Werf4,5,6,7, Daniel Lévy-Bruhl3, Vittoria Colizza2, Thomas Hanslik1, Thierry Blanchon1
Several French regions where coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has been reported currently show a renewed increase in ILI cases in the general practice-based Sentinelles network. We computed the number of excess cases by region from 24 February to 8 March 2020 and found a correlation with the number of reported COVID-19 cases so far. The data suggest larger circulation of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in the French population than apparent from confirmed cases.

https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.14.2000326#html_fulltext

Some Vitamin D research: Biochem Pharmacol - Vitamin D attenuates lung injury via stimulating epithelial repair, reducing epithelial cell apoptosis and inhibits TGF-β induced epithelial to mesenchymal transition. Today, 11:18 AM Biochem Pharmacol. 2020 Apr 3:113955. doi: 10.1016/j.bcp.2020.113955. [Epub ahead of print] Vitamin D attenuates lung injury via stimulating epithelial repair, reducing epithelial cell apoptosis and inhibits TGF-β induced epithelial to mesenchymal transition. Zheng S1, Yang J2, Hu X3, Li M4, Wang Q5, Dancer RCA6, Parekh D7, Gao-Smith F8, Thickett DR9, Jin S10.Author information Abstract Vitamin D regulates cell proliferation, inhibits cytokines release at sites of inflammation and reduces inflammatory responses. In this study, the aim was to investigate whether exogenous vitamin D attenuates LPS-induced lung injury via modulating epithelial cell proliferation, migration, apoptosis and epithelial mesenchymal transition (EMT). Murine and in vitro primary type II alveolar epithelial cell work were included in this study. In vivo, mice were mildly vitamin D deficient, 0.1, 1.5, 10mg/kg 1,25(OH)2-vitamin D3 or 25(OH)-vitamin D3 was administrated by means of an intra-gastric injection for 14 days pre-intra-tracheal (IT) LPS, which remarkedly promoted alveolar epithelial type II cells proliferation, inhibited ATII cells apoptosis and inhibited EMT, with the outcome of attenuated LPS-induced lung injury. In vitro, vitamin D stimulated epithelial cell scratch wound repair, reduced primary ATII cells apoptosis as well. Vitamin D promoted primary human ATII cells proliferation through the PI3K/AKT signaling pathway and activation of vitamin D receptor (VDR). Moreover, vitamin D inhibited EMT in response to TGF-β, which was vitamin D receptor dependent. In conclusion, vitamin D attenuates lung injury via stimulating ATII cells proliferation and migration, reducing epithelial cell apoptosis and inhibits TGF-β induced EMT. Together, these results suggest that vitamin D has therapeutic potential for the resolution of ARDS. Copyright © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. KEYWORDS: acute respiratory distress syndrome; alveolar type II cells; epithelial to mesenchymal transition; vitamin D; wound repair and apoptosis PMID: 32251673 DOI: 10.1016/j.bcp.2020.113955 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32251673 ***** Nutrients: Evidence that Vitamin D Supplementation Could Reduce Risk of Influenza and COVID-19 Infections and Deaths Today, 11:15 AM Nutrients. 2020 Apr 2;12(4). pii: E988. doi: 10.3390/nu12040988. Evidence that Vitamin D Supplementation Could Reduce Risk of Influenza and COVID-19 Infections and Deaths. Grant WB1, Lahore H2, McDonnell SL3, Baggerly CA3, French CB3, Aliano JL3, Bhattoa HP4.Author information Abstract The world is in the grip of the COVID-19 pandemic. Public health measures that can reduce the risk of infection and death in addition to quarantines are desperately needed. This article reviews the roles of vitamin D in reducing the risk of respiratory tract infections, knowledge about the epidemiology of influenza and COVID-19, and how vitamin D supplementation might be a useful measure to reduce risk. Through several mechanisms, vitamin D can reduce risk of infections. Those mechanisms include inducing cathelicidins and defensins that can lower viral replication rates and reducing concentrations of pro-inflammatory cytokines that produce the inflammation that injures the lining of the lungs, leading to pneumonia, as well as increasing concentrations of anti-inflammatory cytokines. Several observational studies and clinical trials reported that vitamin D supplementation reduced the risk of influenza, whereas others did not. Evidence supporting the role of vitamin D in reducing risk of COVID-19 includes that the outbreak occurred in winter, a time when 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) concentrations are lowest; that the number of cases in the Southern Hemisphere near the end of summer are low; that vitamin D deficiency has been found to contribute to acute respiratory distress syndrome; and that case-fatality rates increase with age and with chronic disease comorbidity, both of which are associated with lower 25(OH)D concentration. To reduce the risk of infection, it is recommended that people at risk of influenza and/or COVID-19 consider taking 10,000 IU/d of vitamin D3 for a few weeks to rapidly raise 25(OH)D concentrations, followed by 5000 IU/d. The goal should be to raise 25(OH)D concentrations above 40-60 ng/mL (100-150 nmol/L). For treatment of people who become infected with COVID-19, higher vitamin D3 doses might be useful. Randomized controlled trials and large population studies should be conducted to evaluate these recommendations. KEYWORDS: COVID-19; UVB; acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS); ascorbic acid; cathelicidin; coronavirus; cytokine storm; influenza; observational; pneumonia; prevention; respiratory tract infection; solar radiation; treatment; vitamin C; vitamin D PMID: 32252338 DOI: 10.3390/nu12040988 https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32252338

Indiana has the Biogen Man strain

Look at the percentage of tested versus positive.

Thanks!

Thank you for the thread, Mariner, I hope you’re doing well today.

Side note: Rush just got shut off again. No useful information, not entertaining, no reason to listen.

Reposting, sorry... Some Vitamin D research:

Biochem Pharmacol - Vitamin D attenuates lung injury via stimulating epithelial repair, reducing epithelial cell apoptosis and inhibits TGF-B induced epithelial to mesenchymal transition.
Today, 11:18 AM
Biochem Pharmacol. 2020 Apr 3:113955. doi: 10.1016/j.bcp.2020.113955. [Epub ahead of print]

Vitamin D attenuates lung injury via stimulating epithelial repair, reducing epithelial cell apoptosis and inhibits TGF-B induced epithelial to mesenchymal transition.

Zheng S1, Yang J2, Hu X3, Li M4, Wang Q5, Dancer RCA6, Parekh D7, Gao-Smith F8, Thickett DR9, Jin S10.Author information

Abstract

Vitamin D regulates cell proliferation, inhibits cytokines release at sites of inflammation and reduces inflammatory responses. In this study, the aim was to investigate whether exogenous vitamin D attenuates LPS-induced lung injury via modulating epithelial cell proliferation, migration, apoptosis and epithelial mesenchymal transition (EMT). Murine and in vitro primary type II alveolar epithelial cell work were included in this study. In vivo, mice were mildly vitamin D deficient, 0.1, 1.5, 10mg/kg 1,25(OH)2-vitamin D3 or 25(OH)-vitamin D3 was administrated by means of an intra-gastric injection for 14 days pre-intra-tracheal (IT) LPS, which remarkedly promoted alveolar epithelial type II cells proliferation, inhibited ATII cells apoptosis and inhibited EMT, with the outcome of attenuated LPS-induced lung injury. In vitro, vitamin D stimulated epithelial cell scratch wound repair, reduced primary ATII cells apoptosis as well. Vitamin D promoted primary human ATII cells proliferation through the PI3K/AKT signaling pathway and activation of vitamin D receptor (VDR). Moreover, vitamin D inhibited EMT in response to TGF-B;, which was vitamin D receptor dependent. In conclusion, vitamin D attenuates lung injury via stimulating ATII cells proliferation and migration, reducing epithelial cell apoptosis and inhibits TGF-B; induced EMT. Together, these results suggest that vitamin D has therapeutic potential for the resolution of ARDS.

Copyright © 2020 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
KEYWORDS:

acute respiratory distress syndrome; alveolar type II cells; epithelial to mesenchymal transition; vitamin D; wound repair and apoptosis
PMID: 32251673 DOI: 10.1016/j.bcp.2020.113955

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32251673

*****

Nutrients: Evidence that Vitamin D Supplementation Could Reduce Risk of Influenza and COVID-19 Infections and Deaths
Today, 11:15 AM

Nutrients. 2020 Apr 2;12(4). pii: E988. doi: 10.3390/nu12040988.

Evidence that Vitamin D Supplementation Could Reduce Risk of Influenza and COVID-19 Infections and Deaths.

Grant WB1, Lahore H2, McDonnell SL3, Baggerly CA3, French CB3, Aliano JL3, Bhattoa HP4.Author information

Abstract

The world is in the grip of the COVID-19 pandemic. Public health measures that can reduce the risk of infection and death in addition to quarantines are desperately needed. This article reviews the roles of vitamin D in reducing the risk of respiratory tract infections, knowledge about the epidemiology of influenza and COVID-19, and how vitamin D supplementation might be a useful measure to reduce risk. Through several mechanisms, vitamin D can reduce risk of infections. Those mechanisms include inducing cathelicidins and defensins that can lower viral replication rates and reducing concentrations of pro-inflammatory cytokines that produce the inflammation that injures the lining of the lungs, leading to pneumonia, as well as increasing concentrations of anti-inflammatory cytokines. Several observational studies and clinical trials reported that vitamin D supplementation reduced the risk of influenza, whereas others did not. Evidence supporting the role of vitamin D in reducing risk of COVID-19 includes that the outbreak occurred in winter, a time when 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) concentrations are lowest; that the number of cases in the Southern Hemisphere near the end of summer are low; that vitamin D deficiency has been found to contribute to acute respiratory distress syndrome; and that case-fatality rates increase with age and with chronic disease comorbidity, both of which are associated with lower 25(OH)D concentration. To reduce the risk of infection, it is recommended that people at risk of influenza and/or COVID-19 consider taking 10,000 IU/d of vitamin D3 for a few weeks to rapidly raise 25(OH)D concentrations, followed by 5000 IU/d. The goal should be to raise 25(OH)D concentrations above 40-60 ng/mL (100-150 nmol/L). For treatment of people who become infected with COVID-19, higher vitamin D3 doses might be useful. Randomized controlled trials and large population studies should be conducted to evaluate these recommendations.
KEYWORDS:

COVID-19; UVB; acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS); ascorbic acid; cathelicidin; coronavirus; cytokine storm; influenza; observational; pneumonia; prevention; respiratory tract infection; solar radiation; treatment; vitamin C; vitamin D
PMID: 32252338 DOI: 10.3390/nu12040988

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/32252338

WHO failed, again. In Wuhan, the R0 rate was 1 to 5.7. One person infected 5.7 others. That’s more than the WHO’s published rate.

n

He (Rush) gave an update:

2.2 million original death projection in USA
100,000 - 200,000 1st revision
100,000 - 240,000 2nd revision
60,000 current prediction

Actual deaths: 14,831 is what is being billed as the apocalyptic week.

Thanks ;-)

People were complaining on Twitter when I said the death toll would be around 27,000. I may be more right than people think at the rate things are going.

Thanks for the updates.

That’s pretty good if you’re not in the 14,831.

I’m not really sure what Rush wants me to do about the discrepancy between the models and reality, because reality is the virus is very dangerous to me if I contract it.

“Policy Implications of COVID-19”

- see https://www.hoover.org/policy-implications-covid-19

My pleasure! Well, not a pleasure to bring bad news, but hopefully it’s useful...