Posted on 01/01/2024 5:05:22 AM PST by Godzilla
Welcome to Threat Matrix 2024
For historical reference TM2023 link is
https://freerepublic.com/focus/bloggers/4120141/posts?page=1#1
Established in 2001, after the 9/11 attack on America and now in its 23nd year, this thread is designed to identify threats to America, both internal and external, and evaluate the probability of those threats occurring and the extent of potential damage. Discussions may stray into ‘tinfoil’ territory, but the goal is to peel back and confirm information so we can make informed decisions and actions. Incredible as it seems, “tinfoil” conspiracy theories have fast become realities so they can no longer be ignored outright, but must be evaluated and compared to current events.
2023 has been “historic”: Continued inflation Record illegal immigration Record crime Record housing prices and Unprecedented prime lending rate increases. Push to globalize the economy, food production and energy
I expect 2024 to be even worse as we are facing, among many things -
- 2024 is a political year with all the deep divisions and turmoils that brings. - Political assassinations - The potential for a serious and deep recession - CBDC stripping Americans of their free use of money - Race and other ethnic wars in the US as illegals mark out territory - Continued massive increase in crime - Further movement towards implementing the goals of the WEF via its “global reset” - - Continued combat in Ukraine that could spill out into other parts of Europe - Potential Chinese move on Taiwan – breaking analysis - Israel and Hezbollah/Iran finally directly going at it. - Other political turmoil growing globally over a wide range of issues. - Potential for a wide variety of Black Swan events to create even greater problems. . And this is just a short list.
It has been my pleasure to continue this thread over the past few years. This thread hopefully is continuing the goals of when it started.
For those who care, my posts reflect my scanning of the interwebs to provide me with early warning concerning factors that can endanger my life and family. Yes, I’m what many would call a “prepper”, and proudly accept that characterization.
How can something happening half way around the world affect me personally? Wuhan virus, my friend is but one recent example. I noted it in TM Dec 2019 and was prepared when chaos hit in 2020.
Other events have secondary and tertiary affects that reach us via shortages and inflation – fossil fuel prices are the most common, as well as economic impacts. I simply share news items and often my opinions that shape my actions and preparations.
My posts are broken down into specific topics and regions. I highlight and evaluative opensource reports in those areas in regard to how it will affect the US. Sometimes it feels like trying to drink from a fire hose and I don’t expect this to let up, only increase as the year progresses.
Will we even make it to the 2024 elections without things flying apart? Will the democrats / leftist manage a way to steal the election? Will the US find itself in the early stages of a civil war / national split up? The year promises to be very bumpy, so buckle up and prepare yourselves for what is to come.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
The liberal politician Volker Wissing wrote a letter to the coalition’s parliamentary group leaders, as reported by the German outlet BILD last week.
Wissing says that achieving climate goals by reducing traffic would require implementing measures that are difficult to explain to the public, like “comprehensive and indefinite driving bans on Saturdays and Sundays.”
The proposed change to the emissions-reduction law would assess climate goals by considering all sectors collectively rather than separately. If the overarching target is missed for two consecutive years, the federal government would then determine which sector and measures would be used to reach the permitted total carbon dioxide emissions by 2030.
OBSERVATION - Totally wackadoodle? Not hardly, given the track of draconian ‘climate change’ measures being forced on Europeans - and especially the Germans. This does illuminate globalists attack on vehicle use, ignoring the obvious impact on citizens, for negligible reductions in carbon dioxide.
***
In the WEF test bed of Canada, pushing the wuhan boundaries of population controls continue.
As of Monday, Alberta Health Services (AHS) has updated its guidance on mRNA COVID-19 booster shots to every three months, beginning with six-month-old babies.
That works out to about 320 doses for the average lifespan
You’re supposed to take your baby to the doc FOUR TIMES A YEAR to get a new Covid booster.
Thank goodness this insane vax schedule doesn’t appear to be mandated. How long will that last?
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Investigators are digging down into the support base for the A15 protests that shut down major cities on Monday. Organizers set up an A15 bail fund to get arrested activists out of jail. Bail fund donations were being run through ActBlue, the Democratic Party’s fundraising website, while Community Justice Exchange, a project of the Soros-backed Tides Center, is administering the fund itself.
OBSERVATION - Most likely leadership based in the far leftist socialist / progressive democrat wing. Not sure your rank and file democrats who overwhelmingly live in these urban hell holes would appreciate knowing that elements of their own party totally screwed up life for that day.
I also noted that some analysts see Monday’s protests as a potential warm up for follow on actions to grow in intensity as the election approaches and definitely should Trump win back the presidency.
Economy-
Reuters - U.S. single-family homebuilding tumbled in March, and while new construction remains underpinned by a severe shortage of previously owned houses for sale, a resurgence in mortgage rates is pushing potential buyers to the sidelines.
The report from the Commerce Department on Tuesday also showed permits for future construction of single-family houses fell to a five-month low. Residential investment rebounded in the second half of 2023 after contracting for nine straight quarters, the longest such stretch since the housing market collapse in 2006. But the recovery appears to be losing steam.
“The housing recovery has stalled for now as home builder expectations of sharply lower interest rates this year have faded,” said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS. “One thing is for certain, and that is home prices are going to be on an upward, more unaffordable trend without more supply.”
Single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, dropped 12.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.022 million units last month, the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau said. Data for February was revised higher to show single-family starts rebounding to a rate of 1.167 million units instead of the previously reported 1.129 million units.
OBSERVATION - I’ve noted many times, economists look to the housing market to gauge the health of the economy and to see if / when things are going to improve. Things are not looking good nor improve any time soon.
***
Related to the above.
A new report from GOBankingRates used that framework to analyze how much money a family of two adults and two children would need in each state to own a home, a car and a pet. The report tallied estimated annual essential expenses for such a family and then doubled that figure.
Using that framework, GoBankingRates found that all 50 states require more than a $100,000 annual income, according to the report, with 38 states needing more than $140,000.
The real estate firm Zillow reports that since January 2020, the monthly mortgage payment on a typical U.S. home has nearly doubled. It’s up 96% in just four years.
According to Zillow, a typical buyer will now pay nearly $2,200 a month, with a 10% down payment. Meaning, homeownership now costs well above the 30% of median income that was once thought to equate to “affordable” housing cost in America.
OBSERVATION - This not only seriously stress family economics of essentially forced living in almost equally high priced rentals, but also puts a serious pinch on those trying to flee urban regions to get away from increased crime and even higher costs of living. Now note - this is HOUSING only, doesn’t include auto and other things like credit card debt that eat huge holes in a family budget.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
In a week laden with news, we shouldn’t overlook the oral argument held yesterday by the Supreme Court in Fischer v. United States. The issue before the Court. Fischer is one of some 350 January 6 defendants charged with obstructing an official congressional proceeding allegedly in violation of 18 U.S.C. § 1512(c)(2) of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act (as well as other federal offenses). The question before the Court is whether the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit erred in construing the statute, which prohibits obstruction of congressional inquiries and investigations, to include acts unrelated to investigations and evidence.
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2024/04/in-the-j6-cases.php
***
House forwarded the impeachment documents to the Senate yesterday, where Schumer is likely to table and ignore taking any action, though the constitution requires the Senate to act.
Biden / Harris Watch –
(FO) Nasty potential brewing, while responding to reporters’ questions about possible Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) releases, White House senior advisor John Podesta said President Biden wants to keep the price of gasoline low, “and we’ll do what we can to make sure that that happens.”
Macquarie Group analyst Vikas Dwivaldi said the Biden administration would have to release oil from the SPR “with a lot of aggressiveness to tame prices,” and the SPR is the most effective tool for the administration to keep prices from spiking.
OBSERVATION - biden has already drained the reserver to an estimated 17 days worth of reserve and has refused to refill it because of “high costs”. Hideous act to try to purchase support for his presidential campaign at the expense of the country.
Cyber attacks/warfare – HEIGHTENED ALERT
Rumblings across the cyber defense world of increasing concerns over Iranian based cyber attacks as the direct conflict between Israel and Iran grows.
Illegal Immigration –
Hundreds (thousands) of illegals swarmed INYC hall making multiple demands including allowing them to use luxury hotels instead of the shelters the city along with more other benefits and work permits.
***
Under President Joe Biden, the number of Chinese nationals crossing the nation’s borders has increased by more than 37,000 percent in just three years, new Department of Homeland Security (DHS) data reveals.
In the last six months, which represents the first half of Fiscal Year 2024, nearly 25,000 Chinese nationals crossed United States borders and were encountered by Border Patrol agents.
During the same period in Fiscal Year 2021, just 65 Chinese nationals were encountered by Border Patrol while crossing U.S. borders. By the first half of Fiscal Year 2022, Chinese crossings had increased to 432 in the same period
OBSERVATION - This is very concerning given the fact that China essentially has forced any Chinese citizen who works or goes to college here to be essentially a spy for the CCP and given the increased tensions over Taiwan, undocumented Chinese roaming the country (predominantly military aged men) is a serious concern for terrorism and worse.
China –
Chinese leader Xi Jinping recently declared his unlimited friendship with Russia and its leader Vladimir Putin. China does not give money to allies or business partners. China invests and expects a return on that investment. In the last two years a lot of Chinese cash and economic assistance has gone to Russia, which has enabled Russia to keep its war in Ukraine going. Without the Chinese aid, Russia would have economic problems at home because of Western sanctions imposed in 2014 and 2022.
With other countries, China offers various economic support - with a caveat being that if there is no repayment, then various strategic items would be turned over to Chinese control. Third world countries have faced this when they default on their ‘loans’, getting China control of critical mining and mineral resources.
Some suspect that China may be maneuvering Russia into ceding parts of eastern Russia that they had seized from China in the past.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.
The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.
When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.
*****
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Russia’s military death toll in Ukraine has now passed the 50,000 mark, the BBC can confirm.
In the second 12 months on the front line - as Moscow pushed its so-called meat grinder strategy - we found the body count was nearly 25% higher than in the first year.
BBC Russian, independent media group Mediazona and volunteers have been counting deaths since February 2022.
More than 27,300 Russian soldiers died in the second year of combat - according to our findings - a reflection of how territorial gains have come at a huge human cost.
The overall death toll - of more than 50,000 - is eight times higher than the only official public acknowledgement of fatality numbers ever given by Moscow in September 2022.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-68819853
OBSERVATION - These numbers are based on counting the number of new graves at military cemeteries using available open source imagery. These numbers do not include the hundreds of thousands (estimate of near 400,000) of those wounded severely enough to be taken out of combat.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 30-70 range with some local highs into the 80s. Increasing chances of showers/rain next week.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
NASA’s FIRMS shows a massive fire at Dzhankoi airbase in Russian-occupied Crimea, after a Ukrainian strike earlier tonight. Massive stockpiles of Russian munitions were observed to explode for a considerable time afterwords. Unconfirmed reports from Russian sources indicate that Ukraine also destroyed a warehouse of hypersonic Zircon missiles. Initial estimates Ukraine used 12 ATACMS missiles.
Russia hit Chernihiv with three missiles, in the city center. Viacheslav Chaus, Head of Chernihiv Oblast Military Administration reports that there are many dead and injured people. Rescue workers and medics are at the scene.
However, things on the eastern front are getting grim. Russian gains have gone from measurable in meters to kilometers now. The main difference is the lack of Ukrainian artillery support that has been key to its defense. This is seen in the Avdiivka front especially .
Outlook —
Harsh realities hitting Ukraine. Russia’s momentum and initiative are growing. This has even begun to be evident in the return to actual maneuver by Russian forces rather than clawing for ground in positional battles. Still suffering high losses, unless Ukraine receives an infusion of artillery shells as well as ADA munitions, a tipping point could soon be reached, especially in the fight for Chasiv Yar.
ISRAEL –
Dates to remember -
Passover - April 22
Key overnight developments -
- International suspense continues on the impending Israeli counter strike against Iran
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
Hamas continues to hold to its demands that Israel essentially surrender and withdraw from Gaza for at least 6 weeks before any hostages are released, and even then thousands of terrorists jailed in Israel are to be released. Comments by Hamas suggest that there are few hostages left alive.
***
US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan announced on Tuesday that the US will impose new sanctions on Iran following its missile and drone attack on Israel.
“Following Iran’s unprecedented air attack against Israel, President Biden is coordinating with allies and partners, including the G7, and with bipartisan leaders in Congress, on a comprehensive response,” Sullivan said in a statement.
“In the coming days, the United States will impose new sanctions targeting Iran, including its missile and drone program as well as new sanctions against entities supporting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Iran’s Defense Ministry. We anticipate that our allies and partners will soon be following with their own sanctions,” he added.
“In addition,” Sullivan said, “we continue to work through the Department of Defense and US Central Command to further strengthen and expand the successful integration of air and missile defense and early warning systems across the Middle East to further erode the effectiveness of Iran’s missile and UAV capabilities.”
https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-27/
***
Numerous foreign policy experts are urging Israel to deliver a “disproportionate” military response to Iran’s attacks over the weekend and are warning that time is winding down to deal with the Islamic Republic before it becomes a nuclear state.
Part of what is driving the concern from foreign policy and military experts is that Iran has strengthened its relationship with Russia and may soon acquire more advanced military hardware from the Russians that will make it much harder for the U.S., Israel, and Arab allies in the region to counter Iranian threats.
OBSERVATION - “disproportionate” = Strength forms deterrent in arab minds.
Some of those concerns over advanced military hardware from Russia may be dampened by overwhelming need for Russia to use those assets in its fight against Ukraine. More likely they would supply technical advice and allow Iran to clone its systems on its own (with ample payback for access to the technology)
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Reports that IDF has started to elevate readiness for large assault on Rafah overnight, army mobilizes more artillery, armored vehicles, mobile command centers; defense minister & IDF chief approve blueprint of planned operation. This follows recent statements by Netanyahu and others that the operation is still on and a date has been set to kick it off.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Action between Hezbollah and Israel ticked upwards a notch yesterday.
7 missiles launched from Lebanon landed in open areas around the Meron base in the Upper Galilee. IDF reportedly hitting the launch sites with artillery. The Meron Base has several key, air defense radar systems.
This rocket attack is reportedly in response to the IDF allegedly striking, aka assassinating, commanders in Syria and Lebanon over the past few days.
The Israeli army announces the elimination of the commander of the missile unit in the western sector of the Radwan Force, Muhammad Hussein Mustafa Shahhouri, in Kafr Donin, southern Lebanon in a targeted drone strike.
In addition to Shahhouri, Hezbollah announced the deaths of two more operatives killed “on the road to Jerusalem,” its term for operatives slain in Israeli strikes. Their deaths bring the terror group’s toll since the beginning of the war in the Gaza Strip to 278.
The IDF says it carried out additional strikes against buildings used by Hezbollah and where operatives were gathered in southern Lebanon today.
The strikes were carried out in the towns of Ain Baal, Aalma ash-Shab, Hanine, and Yaroun, the military says.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Israeli new reports alternate between different versions of the decision to launch a counter strike against Iran, apparently swayed by various rumors and planted stories by “officals”. This is likely an effort to keep Iran guessing on response size and timing. Iran did similar prior to its missile attack.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces continue to conduct operations throughout the West Bank to arrest terror suspects and break up Hamas and related terror cells.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Continued quiet except for some very minimal Houthi activity .
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
German Foreign Minister - Iran must stop the proxy war it is conducting through the Houthis and others
——— FORECAST ————————-
Waiting game for the Israeli counter strike continues with a lot of continued apparent disinformation and propaganda flying fast. Speculation continues to look at significant dates that may be used to hinge the attack on - for further symbolic purposes.
One such date is Purim. This is when the Jews commemorate the saving of the Jewish people from annihilation at the hands of an official of the Persian Empire named Haman, as it is recounted in the Book of Esther.
Purim this year is April 22-30
Passover - April 22 - is another date to be considered.
Thursday, the 18th of April, is the Islamic Republic of Iran Army Day.
Another factor is the cry to prevent escalation of conflict. This is a two edged sword. Yes, an Israeli strike has the strong possibility of initiation Iranian retaliation and so forth. But INACTION threatens the same escalation in that Israel would then been seen as ‘weak’, inviting more aggressive attacks by Iran.
As I’ve pointed out many times - strength deters, weakness invites.
Israel can’t wait long or international pressure to claim victory and move on will grow and eliminate potential benefits of a strike.
Bottom line is we are moving quickly into dangerous territory.
Action also continues at a fast pace in Lebanon with the latest successful targeting of senior Hezbollah leadership. This is digging into Hezbollah’s capabilities to conduct a war with Israel, forcing less experienced leaders to take over when facing a war for the survival of Hezbollah. Hezbollah is trying to retaliate, but I think the inefficiency of those attacks are showing the lack of leadership and planning.
The focus back on Gaza and in particular Rafah is growing and I think Israel will soon act. With Hamas totally sabotaging any hostage / ceasefire negotiations, there will be no more options or patience by Israel.
Iran – HIGH Warning for supported attacks against Israeli and US interests across the globe. Apr 2, 2024
CNN reports that the US will ‘restrict the movements of Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian’ while he is in New York for a United Nations meeting this week.
***
If this report from Reuters is accurate, the mullahs of Tehran have every reason to worry. Not just because Iranians know that Israel will eventually respond to the missile attack, and not because they fear the Israelis. They are sick of the mullahs, and now worry that the IRGC has pulled them into a war that will make their lives even more miserable than usual:
“”Economic pressure will mount, our safety will be jeopardized ... We must avoid conflict at all cost. I don’t want a war. How can I protect my two children? Nowhere will be safe.”
Housewife Parvaneh fears an Israeli strike could be the final hammer blow to the economy, weakened by years of sanctions, mismanagement and corruption.
“We Iranians have endured more than enough for years. War brings only disaster. My husband is a factory worker. We do not have even enough money to buy staples let alone stockpiling them,” said the 37-year-old mother-of-two in the central city of Yazd.”
OBSERVATION - Iran has been hit with several large and prolonged protests over the past several years. One of the biggest contributors to these protests are economic conditions that have been made worse by the decisions of the mullahs to support terrorism and the resulting global push backs. Add to it the increasingly nasty islamic shariah crackdowns on women with uncovered heads and more make things a tinderbox.
Syria -
ISIS is making Iranian-backed militias lives miserable after seizing large quantities of anti-tank missile system (Konkurs) from a Syrian supported base.
OBSERVATION - This could be another reason for the drop in attacking US / Coalition bases in eastern Syria/Iraq of recent weeks.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
The liberal politician Volker Wissing wrote a letter to the coalition’s parliamentary group leaders, as reported by the German outlet BILD last week.
Wissing says that achieving climate goals by reducing traffic would require implementing measures that are difficult to explain to the public, like “comprehensive and indefinite driving bans on Saturdays and Sundays.”
The proposed change to the emissions-reduction law would assess climate goals by considering all sectors collectively rather than separately. If the overarching target is missed for two consecutive years, the federal government would then determine which sector and measures would be used to reach the permitted total carbon dioxide emissions by 2030.
OBSERVATION - Totally wackadoodle? Not hardly, given the track of draconian ‘climate change’ measures being forced on Europeans - and especially the Germans. This does illuminate globalists attack on vehicle use, ignoring the obvious impact on citizens, for negligible reductions in carbon dioxide.
***
In the WEF test bed of Canada, pushing the wuhan boundaries of population controls continue.
As of Monday, Alberta Health Services (AHS) has updated its guidance on mRNA COVID-19 booster shots to every three months, beginning with six-month-old babies.
That works out to about 320 doses for the average lifespan
You’re supposed to take your baby to the doc FOUR TIMES A YEAR to get a new Covid booster.
Thank goodness this insane vax schedule doesn’t appear to be mandated. How long will that last?
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Investigators are digging down into the support base for the A15 protests that shut down major cities on Monday. Organizers set up an A15 bail fund to get arrested activists out of jail. Bail fund donations were being run through ActBlue, the Democratic Party’s fundraising website, while Community Justice Exchange, a project of the Soros-backed Tides Center, is administering the fund itself.
OBSERVATION - Most likely leadership based in the far leftist socialist / progressive democrat wing. Not sure your rank and file democrats who overwhelmingly live in these urban hell holes would appreciate knowing that elements of their own party totally screwed up life for that day.
I also noted that some analysts see Monday’s protests as a potential warm up for follow on actions to grow in intensity as the election approaches and definitely should Trump win back the presidency.
Economy-
Reuters - U.S. single-family homebuilding tumbled in March, and while new construction remains underpinned by a severe shortage of previously owned houses for sale, a resurgence in mortgage rates is pushing potential buyers to the sidelines.
The report from the Commerce Department on Tuesday also showed permits for future construction of single-family houses fell to a five-month low. Residential investment rebounded in the second half of 2023 after contracting for nine straight quarters, the longest such stretch since the housing market collapse in 2006. But the recovery appears to be losing steam.
“The housing recovery has stalled for now as home builder expectations of sharply lower interest rates this year have faded,” said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS. “One thing is for certain, and that is home prices are going to be on an upward, more unaffordable trend without more supply.”
Single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, dropped 12.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.022 million units last month, the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau said. Data for February was revised higher to show single-family starts rebounding to a rate of 1.167 million units instead of the previously reported 1.129 million units.
OBSERVATION - I’ve noted many times, economists look to the housing market to gauge the health of the economy and to see if / when things are going to improve. Things are not looking good nor improve any time soon.
***
Related to the above.
A new report from GOBankingRates used that framework to analyze how much money a family of two adults and two children would need in each state to own a home, a car and a pet. The report tallied estimated annual essential expenses for such a family and then doubled that figure.
Using that framework, GoBankingRates found that all 50 states require more than a $100,000 annual income, according to the report, with 38 states needing more than $140,000.
The real estate firm Zillow reports that since January 2020, the monthly mortgage payment on a typical U.S. home has nearly doubled. It’s up 96% in just four years.
According to Zillow, a typical buyer will now pay nearly $2,200 a month, with a 10% down payment. Meaning, homeownership now costs well above the 30% of median income that was once thought to equate to “affordable” housing cost in America.
OBSERVATION - This not only seriously stress family economics of essentially forced living in almost equally high priced rentals, but also puts a serious pinch on those trying to flee urban regions to get away from increased crime and even higher costs of living. Now note - this is HOUSING only, doesn’t include auto and other things like credit card debt that eat huge holes in a family budget.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
In a week laden with news, we shouldn’t overlook the oral argument held yesterday by the Supreme Court in Fischer v. United States. The issue before the Court. Fischer is one of some 350 January 6 defendants charged with obstructing an official congressional proceeding allegedly in violation of 18 U.S.C. § 1512(c)(2) of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act (as well as other federal offenses). The question before the Court is whether the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit erred in construing the statute, which prohibits obstruction of congressional inquiries and investigations, to include acts unrelated to investigations and evidence.
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2024/04/in-the-j6-cases.php
***
House forwarded the impeachment documents to the Senate yesterday, where Schumer is likely to table and ignore taking any action, though the constitution requires the Senate to act.
Biden / Harris Watch –
(FO) Nasty potential brewing, while responding to reporters’ questions about possible Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) releases, White House senior advisor John Podesta said President Biden wants to keep the price of gasoline low, “and we’ll do what we can to make sure that that happens.”
Macquarie Group analyst Vikas Dwivaldi said the Biden administration would have to release oil from the SPR “with a lot of aggressiveness to tame prices,” and the SPR is the most effective tool for the administration to keep prices from spiking.
OBSERVATION - biden has already drained the reserver to an estimated 17 days worth of reserve and has refused to refill it because of “high costs”. Hideous act to try to purchase support for his presidential campaign at the expense of the country.
Cyber attacks/warfare – HEIGHTENED ALERT
Rumblings across the cyber defense world of increasing concerns over Iranian based cyber attacks as the direct conflict between Israel and Iran grows.
Illegal Immigration –
Hundreds (thousands) of illegals swarmed INYC hall making multiple demands including allowing them to use luxury hotels instead of the shelters the city along with more other benefits and work permits.
***
Under President Joe Biden, the number of Chinese nationals crossing the nation’s borders has increased by more than 37,000 percent in just three years, new Department of Homeland Security (DHS) data reveals.
In the last six months, which represents the first half of Fiscal Year 2024, nearly 25,000 Chinese nationals crossed United States borders and were encountered by Border Patrol agents.
During the same period in Fiscal Year 2021, just 65 Chinese nationals were encountered by Border Patrol while crossing U.S. borders. By the first half of Fiscal Year 2022, Chinese crossings had increased to 432 in the same period
OBSERVATION - This is very concerning given the fact that China essentially has forced any Chinese citizen who works or goes to college here to be essentially a spy for the CCP and given the increased tensions over Taiwan, undocumented Chinese roaming the country (predominantly military aged men) is a serious concern for terrorism and worse.
China –
Chinese leader Xi Jinping recently declared his unlimited friendship with Russia and its leader Vladimir Putin. China does not give money to allies or business partners. China invests and expects a return on that investment. In the last two years a lot of Chinese cash and economic assistance has gone to Russia, which has enabled Russia to keep its war in Ukraine going. Without the Chinese aid, Russia would have economic problems at home because of Western sanctions imposed in 2014 and 2022.
With other countries, China offers various economic support - with a caveat being that if there is no repayment, then various strategic items would be turned over to Chinese control. Third world countries have faced this when they default on their ‘loans’, getting China control of critical mining and mineral resources.
Some suspect that China may be maneuvering Russia into ceding parts of eastern Russia that they had seized from China in the past.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.
The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.
When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.
*****
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Russia’s military death toll in Ukraine has now passed the 50,000 mark, the BBC can confirm.
In the second 12 months on the front line - as Moscow pushed its so-called meat grinder strategy - we found the body count was nearly 25% higher than in the first year.
BBC Russian, independent media group Mediazona and volunteers have been counting deaths since February 2022.
More than 27,300 Russian soldiers died in the second year of combat - according to our findings - a reflection of how territorial gains have come at a huge human cost.
The overall death toll - of more than 50,000 - is eight times higher than the only official public acknowledgement of fatality numbers ever given by Moscow in September 2022.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-68819853
OBSERVATION - These numbers are based on counting the number of new graves at military cemeteries using available open source imagery. These numbers do not include the hundreds of thousands (estimate of near 400,000) of those wounded severely enough to be taken out of combat.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 30-70 range with some local highs into the 80s. Increasing chances of showers/rain next week.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
NASA’s FIRMS shows a massive fire at Dzhankoi airbase in Russian-occupied Crimea, after a Ukrainian strike earlier tonight. Massive stockpiles of Russian munitions were observed to explode for a considerable time afterwords. Unconfirmed reports from Russian sources indicate that Ukraine also destroyed a warehouse of hypersonic Zircon missiles. Initial estimates Ukraine used 12 ATACMS missiles.
Russia hit Chernihiv with three missiles, in the city center. Viacheslav Chaus, Head of Chernihiv Oblast Military Administration reports that there are many dead and injured people. Rescue workers and medics are at the scene.
However, things on the eastern front are getting grim. Russian gains have gone from measurable in meters to kilometers now. The main difference is the lack of Ukrainian artillery support that has been key to its defense. This is seen in the Avdiivka front especially .
Outlook —
Harsh realities hitting Ukraine. Russia’s momentum and initiative are growing. This has even begun to be evident in the return to actual maneuver by Russian forces rather than clawing for ground in positional battles. Still suffering high losses, unless Ukraine receives an infusion of artillery shells as well as ADA munitions, a tipping point could soon be reached, especially in the fight for Chasiv Yar.
ISRAEL –
Dates to remember -
Passover - April 22
Key overnight developments -
- International suspense continues on the impending Israeli counter strike against Iran
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
Hamas continues to hold to its demands that Israel essentially surrender and withdraw from Gaza for at least 6 weeks before any hostages are released, and even then thousands of terrorists jailed in Israel are to be released. Comments by Hamas suggest that there are few hostages left alive.
***
US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan announced on Tuesday that the US will impose new sanctions on Iran following its missile and drone attack on Israel.
“Following Iran’s unprecedented air attack against Israel, President Biden is coordinating with allies and partners, including the G7, and with bipartisan leaders in Congress, on a comprehensive response,” Sullivan said in a statement.
“In the coming days, the United States will impose new sanctions targeting Iran, including its missile and drone program as well as new sanctions against entities supporting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Iran’s Defense Ministry. We anticipate that our allies and partners will soon be following with their own sanctions,” he added.
“In addition,” Sullivan said, “we continue to work through the Department of Defense and US Central Command to further strengthen and expand the successful integration of air and missile defense and early warning systems across the Middle East to further erode the effectiveness of Iran’s missile and UAV capabilities.”
https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-27/
***
Numerous foreign policy experts are urging Israel to deliver a “disproportionate” military response to Iran’s attacks over the weekend and are warning that time is winding down to deal with the Islamic Republic before it becomes a nuclear state.
Part of what is driving the concern from foreign policy and military experts is that Iran has strengthened its relationship with Russia and may soon acquire more advanced military hardware from the Russians that will make it much harder for the U.S., Israel, and Arab allies in the region to counter Iranian threats.
OBSERVATION - “disproportionate” = Strength forms deterrent in arab minds.
Some of those concerns over advanced military hardware from Russia may be dampened by overwhelming need for Russia to use those assets in its fight against Ukraine. More likely they would supply technical advice and allow Iran to clone its systems on its own (with ample payback for access to the technology)
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Reports that IDF has started to elevate readiness for large assault on Rafah overnight, army mobilizes more artillery, armored vehicles, mobile command centers; defense minister & IDF chief approve blueprint of planned operation. This follows recent statements by Netanyahu and others that the operation is still on and a date has been set to kick it off.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Action between Hezbollah and Israel ticked upwards a notch yesterday.
7 missiles launched from Lebanon landed in open areas around the Meron base in the Upper Galilee. IDF reportedly hitting the launch sites with artillery. The Meron Base has several key, air defense radar systems.
This rocket attack is reportedly in response to the IDF allegedly striking, aka assassinating, commanders in Syria and Lebanon over the past few days.
The Israeli army announces the elimination of the commander of the missile unit in the western sector of the Radwan Force, Muhammad Hussein Mustafa Shahhouri, in Kafr Donin, southern Lebanon in a targeted drone strike.
In addition to Shahhouri, Hezbollah announced the deaths of two more operatives killed “on the road to Jerusalem,” its term for operatives slain in Israeli strikes. Their deaths bring the terror group’s toll since the beginning of the war in the Gaza Strip to 278.
The IDF says it carried out additional strikes against buildings used by Hezbollah and where operatives were gathered in southern Lebanon today.
The strikes were carried out in the towns of Ain Baal, Aalma ash-Shab, Hanine, and Yaroun, the military says.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Israeli new reports alternate between different versions of the decision to launch a counter strike against Iran, apparently swayed by various rumors and planted stories by “officals”. This is likely an effort to keep Iran guessing on response size and timing. Iran did similar prior to its missile attack.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces continue to conduct operations throughout the West Bank to arrest terror suspects and break up Hamas and related terror cells.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Continued quiet except for some very minimal Houthi activity .
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
German Foreign Minister - Iran must stop the proxy war it is conducting through the Houthis and others
——— FORECAST ————————-
Waiting game for the Israeli counter strike continues with a lot of continued apparent disinformation and propaganda flying fast. Speculation continues to look at significant dates that may be used to hinge the attack on - for further symbolic purposes.
One such date is Purim. This is when the Jews commemorate the saving of the Jewish people from annihilation at the hands of an official of the Persian Empire named Haman, as it is recounted in the Book of Esther.
Purim this year is April 22-30
Passover - April 22 - is another date to be considered.
Thursday, the 18th of April, is the Islamic Republic of Iran Army Day.
Another factor is the cry to prevent escalation of conflict. This is a two edged sword. Yes, an Israeli strike has the strong possibility of initiation Iranian retaliation and so forth. But INACTION threatens the same escalation in that Israel would then been seen as ‘weak’, inviting more aggressive attacks by Iran.
As I’ve pointed out many times - strength deters, weakness invites.
Israel can’t wait long or international pressure to claim victory and move on will grow and eliminate potential benefits of a strike.
Bottom line is we are moving quickly into dangerous territory.
Action also continues at a fast pace in Lebanon with the latest successful targeting of senior Hezbollah leadership. This is digging into Hezbollah’s capabilities to conduct a war with Israel, forcing less experienced leaders to take over when facing a war for the survival of Hezbollah. Hezbollah is trying to retaliate, but I think the inefficiency of those attacks are showing the lack of leadership and planning.
The focus back on Gaza and in particular Rafah is growing and I think Israel will soon act. With Hamas totally sabotaging any hostage / ceasefire negotiations, there will be no more options or patience by Israel.
Iran – HIGH Warning for supported attacks against Israeli and US interests across the globe. Apr 2, 2024
CNN reports that the US will ‘restrict the movements of Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian’ while he is in New York for a United Nations meeting this week.
***
If this report from Reuters is accurate, the mullahs of Tehran have every reason to worry. Not just because Iranians know that Israel will eventually respond to the missile attack, and not because they fear the Israelis. They are sick of the mullahs, and now worry that the IRGC has pulled them into a war that will make their lives even more miserable than usual:
“”Economic pressure will mount, our safety will be jeopardized ... We must avoid conflict at all cost. I don’t want a war. How can I protect my two children? Nowhere will be safe.”
Housewife Parvaneh fears an Israeli strike could be the final hammer blow to the economy, weakened by years of sanctions, mismanagement and corruption.
“We Iranians have endured more than enough for years. War brings only disaster. My husband is a factory worker. We do not have even enough money to buy staples let alone stockpiling them,” said the 37-year-old mother-of-two in the central city of Yazd.”
OBSERVATION - Iran has been hit with several large and prolonged protests over the past several years. One of the biggest contributors to these protests are economic conditions that have been made worse by the decisions of the mullahs to support terrorism and the resulting global push backs. Add to it the increasingly nasty islamic shariah crackdowns on women with uncovered heads and more make things a tinderbox.
Syria -
ISIS is making Iranian-backed militias lives miserable after seizing large quantities of anti-tank missile system (Konkurs) from a Syrian supported base.
OBSERVATION - This could be another reason for the drop in attacking US / Coalition bases in eastern Syria/Iraq of recent weeks.
No post for tomorrow (Friday ) or Sunday. I have family commitments that will prevent me from spending the hours researching and producing this report.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Some outlets out there are trying to link ISIS to the April 15 protests. I’m dubious about such a linkage but cannot fully rule it out. Radical islam will affiliate with other elements against a common enemy when it suits their purposes. ISIS has been on the ascendancy over the past year or so, and seeing the political chaos growing in the US as an opportunity to keep us occupied here under pro-hamas protesting could be a win for them.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of APR 8, 2024
U.S. Northern Command (USNORTHCOM) has reportedly raised the Force Protection Condition (FPCON) for military bases across the country to FPCON CHARLIE following Saturday night’s large-scale attack by Iran against Israel within the Central Command Area-of Responsibility, with an increase in security as well as armed patrols and 100% ID checks now required at all bases around the United States.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The US Navy ship, the USNS 2nd LT John P. Bobo, en route to the eastern Mediterranean to help the US military set up a pier for aid to Gaza had to turn back last week after experiencing a fire, a Navy spokesperson told CNN.It is not clear how the delay will affect the construction of the floating pier and causeway, which the Pentagon has said is expected to be operational by late April or early May
***
Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro today told lawmakers his service is out at least $1 billion in critical munitions because of recent operations in the Middle East, a shortfall the Pentagon is banking on a congressional supplemental to help replenish.
“We currently have approaching $1 billion in munitions that we need to replenish at some point in time,” Del Toro told the Senate Appropriations subcommittee on defense. “So, therefore the over $2 billion that’s provided for in the supplemental is direly critical to our Navy and Marine Corps to be able to replenish those munitions and continue to provide the types of defensive measures that we have this past six months now.”
https://breakingdefense.com/2024/04/navy-is-down-1b-in-munitions-from-ops-in-red-sea-says-secnav/
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
A comprehensive review by an international consortium of scientists has raised serious concerns about the COVID-19 mRNA vaccines’ safety profile.
Review articles are summaries of current research on a particular topic. They are also sometimes called literature reviews or secondary sources.
The review, “N1-methyl-pseudouridine (m1Ψ): Friend or foe of cancer?” published on Science Direct, delves into the potential implications of a vaccine ingredient—N1-methyl-pseudouridine (m1Ψ)—that may play a role in immune suppression and cancer proliferation.
m1Ψ was incorporated into Pfizer-BioNTech’s COVID-19 mRNA vaccine to enhance its efficacy.
This component was introduced in the mRNA vaccine as a means to produce a significant amount of modified SARS-CoV-2 spike mRNA through in vitro transcription (IVT). This modification was crucial in the rapid development and deployment of the vaccine during the height of the pandemic.
However, the review article calls into question the long-term impacts of this modification, especially concerning the vaccine’s interaction with the body’s immune response and potential carcinogenic effects.
According to the review’s abstract, evidence suggests that while mRNA vaccines may have been “effective” in reducing severe disease outcomes, they might not provide sterilizing immunity, leaving individuals susceptible to recurring infections.
More critically, the review highlights that the inclusion of m1Ψ in mRNA vaccines appears to inhibit key immunological pathways, impairing the body’s early interferon signaling.
“Based on this compelling evidence, we suggest that future clinical trials for cancers or infectious diseases should not use mRNA vaccines with a 100 % m1Ψ modification, but rather ones with the lower percentage of m1Ψ modification to avoid immune suppression,” the researchers said.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0141813024022323?via=ihub
OBSERVATION - Article and links indicate the jab accelerates the development of cancers - an ongoing medical worry of the past couple years. This concoction was designed to kill people in a dozen different ways.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
Chaos and turmoil among house republicans over pending spending bills while nothing for border security.
As screwed up as that is, IMHO it would be even worse if the republicans try to vacate the speakership. Very strong possibility of republican defections to the democrat side and we’d have a democrat controlled congress pushing massive anti american legislation thru before the elections.
Johnson is going to have to face the piper after the election.
***
News reports beginning to question Chicago’s ability to protect the Democrat convention this summer.
The 911 system was down in nearly a dozen states yesterday. There has been no reason given for the widespread outage but a lot of rumors that it may have been due to a some kind of cyber attack - unconfirmed.
Illegal Immigration –
The Senate quickly dispensed with the two impeachment charges against Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, ending a months-long effort to punish him for his handling of the southern border.
OBSERVATION - Vote was by straight party lines. We’ve known all along the border ‘crisis’ has been deliberately managed to get as many illegals into the country and overload the law enforcement and social welfare support systems as possible while overwhelming local voter registration screening efforts.
China –
Major Chinese banks are refusing transfers from Russia in yuan in reportedly an effort to avoid western sanctions for supporting Russia
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.
The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.
When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.
*****
*NOTE* - I’m working on a reassessment of the above, but events in Israel keep diverting my time.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 30-70 range with some local highs into the 80s. Increasing chances of showers/rain next week.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 13 of 13 Shahed drones overnight.
A Ukrainian long range strike drone targeted the Gorbunov Aviation Plant in Kazan, Tatarstan. The plant manufactures and repairs Tu-22M and Tu-160M bombers. The drone traveled about 1,000 Km to conduct the strike.
Primary fighting focused on the Bakhmut and Avdiivka sectors. Minor fighting at the Ukraine bridgehead near Kherson.
Ukraine’s ATACMS strike on Dzhankoi Air Base yesterday was likely one of the most successful strikes, if not the most successful strike of the entire war
~12 Mi-28, Ka-52 Helicopters were stationed there, in total costing $210 million, and an S-400 was hit too, worth $500 million
These numbers don’t include other munition losses.
Outlook —
The Russia march continues, forcing Ukraine to give up terrain it had long successfully defended. Weather conditions support the off road operations as well.
ISRAEL –
Dates to remember -
Passover - April 22
Key overnight developments -
- International suspense continues on the impending Israeli counter strike against Iran
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
IAF hit dozens of targets throughout Gaza.
Israeli Broadcasting Corporation: The army is waiting for the green light to begin operations in Rafah, southern Gaza. The army’s invasion of Rafah will take place in two stages
The second stage of the Rafah invasion will be the establishment of displacement sites before the ground operation
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Action between Hezbollah and Israel ticked upwards a notch yesterday.
The IAF targeted Hezbollah infrastructure in Baalbek, eastern Lebanon
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Israel will probably hold off on retaliating against Iran until the Jewish holiday of Passover has passed, ABC News reported on Wednesday.
A senior U.S. official said that Israel’s decision “could always change,” adding that Iran’s senior officials and Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) continue to be on high alert, with some staying in safe houses and underground facilities.
Axios reported that one of the strikes was supposed to happen Monday night before it was postponed.
“We are not sure why and how close it was to an actual attack,” a U.S. official told Axios. The strike was canceled for “operational reasons,” two Israeli sources said.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces continue to conduct operations throughout the West Bank to arrest terror suspects and break up Hamas and related terror cells.
Israeli forces arrested 40 Palestinians in the West Bank since yesterday. Israel security services say they arrested an ISIS operative in Ramallah area tonight who was planning to carry out an immediate terror attack
——— FORECAST ————————-
Waiting game for the Israeli counter strike continues.
There is no doubt that Israel is facing gigantic pressure not to strike Iran, or at least minimize any counter strike. This could even go as far as the US saying behind closed doors (my speculation ) not to expect similar defense of Israel when Iran hits back from the Israeli strike. There are very strong voices within the Israeli govt to go big on the counter strike and Netanyahu is stuck between them and trying to maintain the international support expressed in the defense of Israel.
With the time delay, a post Passover scenario is most likely, that way any Iranian attack will not interfere with the holy day.
Also on the near term is the entrance into Rafah. The clock is ticking and preparations are well underway. Revelations that hamas has likely killed most of the hostages will remove a lot of the restraint once the operation begins.
The silence out of the “islamic resistance”, with the exception of the few missiles the Houthi fired during Irans missile strike continues. As noted before, the Iranian backed militias may have their hands full with ISIS. Airstrikes against the Houthi may have managed to hit them where it hurts and dissuaded them from further attacks. Hard to say at this juncture.
Armenia/Azerbaijan –
Russian ‘peace keeping’ forces pulling out of the region.
Enjoy your days off. You have them coming.
Israel counter strike update 2
Reports coming out of unknown aircraft and explosions in Iran, Iraq and Syria. The reports of explosions in Isfahan in central Iran are of great interest due to the area hosting critical infrastructure for irans nuclear program
Could be prep for follow on operations. But news is still developing.
Israel counter strike 3
Something has triggered markets
Reports of a massive move out of risk assets and into havens right now.
Gold, Yen up. Oil up. US futures drop
Developing
Israel counter strike 4
An air strike hit Baghdad, reportedly targeting a building hosting a meeting between senior IRGC leaders an leaders of Iranian supported proxy militias
Heavy jet activity being reported Northern Iraqi Cities of Erbil and Mosul.
Israeli airstrikes on military sites in Sweida Governorate, southern Syria.
The target was the destruction of an early warning radar battalion.
Other raids targeted Al-Tha’lah Airport in Sweida and Azraa in Daraa Governorate.
Developing
See above ping
Israel counter strike 5
Observers noting multiple aircraft are diverting over Iran. Civilian air traffic is being rerouted around Isfahan. Multiple airports in Iran have closed per recent NOTAM postings.
Iranian media reporting 3 huge explosions were heard in Isfahan, south of Tehran.
Israeli missiles have hit a site in Iran, a senior US official tells ABC News
explosions also heard in Tabriz.
This is a city which has a significant missile facility.
Reports of at least one explosion in Natanz. Possible Israel has targeted the Iranian nuclear infrastructure.
Israel counter strike 6
Activity has apparently dropped off, indicating that the attack is finished for now. Second wave? Uncertain at this time
Watch switches to see if Iran will “immediately “ respond.
Initial impressions indicate no Israeli losses
All aircraft delivered munitions, ballistic missiles do not seem to have been used.
Complete surprise was obtained
Possibly two key nuclear facilities hit, along with other military facilities
Daylight will bring battle damage assessment.
Calling it a nite.
Sleep well...
One last note. Israel has launched attack on Iran on Supreme Leader Khamenei’s birthday.
Nice!
Nice birthday present.......
Please put me on your ping list. I’ve been on FR for 9 years. Surprised I have not read your analysis before.
Keep up the good work.
No post for tomorrow (Sunday). I have family commitments that will prevent me from spending the hours researching and producing this report.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
Congressional Republicans are calling on President Joe Biden to abandon plans for a pandemic treaty that would strengthen the World Health Organization, citing that global body’s numerous failures during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., backed by about half of all Senate Republicans, signed a letter to Biden urging him to withdraw from two agreements with the World Health Organization that would boost its authority to declare public health emergencies and give it new powers over the U.S. and 193 other member states during such emergencies.
The letter to the president from Senate Republicans also asks that he submit any such pandemic agreement with WHO—criticized for going easy on China during COVID-19—to the Senate for ratification.
https://www.prophecynewswatch.com/article.cfm?recent_news_id=6836#google_vignette
OBSERVATION - the regime is looking to let this slip into reality under the cover of so much other chaos that is going on today. Refresher - This change will allow the WHO to declare a “Public Health Emergency of International Concern.” even over the objections of member nations. The definition of the term “Public Health Emergency of International Concern” is big enough to sail ten aircraft carriers, side by side, through. Covers everything from global warming, guns and ‘health misinformation’ etc. This makes the WHO a massive, globalist grab for power.
Some states are acting in advance, declaring that they will not permit any decree from the WHO (or even the WEF) to be enforced.
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Less than 24 hours after being kicked off the lawn at Columbia University, the pro-Hamas protesters are back to their campsite on the campus.
Well, to be accurate, across the lawn. The original campsite is now covered with construction supplies, presumably to keep the students from doing exactly what they are doing now.
https://hotair.com/david-strom/2024/04/19/theyre-baaaack-n3786847#google_vignette
OBSERVATION - While this version of a sit in is largely ‘peaceful’, Antifa et al are looking to groom them as the useful idiot for potentially more violent actions later this summer.
Terrorism - Heightened THREAT as of APR 20, 2024
Action between Israel and Iran appear to be deescalating at the moment.
Economy-
The commercial real estate market is starting to buckle under the weight of higher interest rates and remote work.
There were 625 commercial real estate foreclosures in March, up 6% from February and 117% from the same time last year, according to a new report published by real estate data provider ATTOM.
OBSERVATION - The ‘work from home’ move due to wuhan has been accelerated by the massive growth in city crime and economic doldrums. Poster child is San Francisco, who’s business section sits largely empty.
***
Oil and gold prices have eased after Iranian authorities appeared to downplay reports of an attack from Israel.
Brent crude, the international benchmark, fell after jumping briefly to over $90 a barrel after reports emerged of an attack.
Gold briefly came close to a record high before settling below $2,400 an ounce.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c2vwl91qe6do
***
Armitage Winery is just one of 67 percent of California businesses surveyed that report they are unhappy doing business in the Golden State. Of that 67 percent, 30 percent indicate that are currently considering a move, 27 percent say they want to move but can’t afford it, and 10 percent are actively planning a move.
The recent survey, conducted by PublicSquare and RedBalloon, included 80,000 small-business owners nationwide. Overall, the survey found that a mere 13 percent of small-business owners in California are actually happy with their location—nearly 40 percent lower than the national average.
High taxes were listed as the number-one reason why California businesses want to relocate, with 86.4 percent responding that taxes are just cutting too much into their profits. Almost 85 percent named anti-business government policies as another major reason to leave. On the national level, that compares to 64.5 percent of employers listing high taxes and 59.4 percent, anti-business government as their biggest complaints
OBSERVATION - Conditions in kalifornia have significantly worsened - not only for residents, but businesses too. The “Great Migration” that hit prior to and during wuhan was dampened by prices and mortgage rates. Now things have gotten to the point where its move or die. Another aspect is the skyrocketing crime rates that have closed many businesses that were unable to move.
Continued marxist policies will only make matters worse.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The US Air Force is putting AI in the pilot’s seat. In an update on Thursday, the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) revealed that an AI-controlled jet successfully faced a human pilot during an in-air dogfight test carried out last year.
Human pilots were on board the X-62A with controls to disable the AI system, but DARPA says the pilots didn’t need to use the safety switch “at any point.” The X-62A went against an F-16 controlled solely by a human pilot, where both aircraft demonstrated “high-aspect nose-to-nose engagements” and got as close as 2,000 feet at 1,200 miles per hour. DARPA doesn’t say which aircraft won the dogfight, however.
https://www.americanpartisan.org/2024/04/us-air-force-confirms-first-successful-ai-dogfight/
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
Warnings of the spread of bird flu, dengue and monkey pox are flitting around the inter webs and CDC.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
More pressure to oust Jordan from the speakership is growing with the movement of massive military aid bills as well as the capitulation to the deep state for not forcing warrants be obtained for FISA purposes.
Any movement could potentially backfire and the House suddenly get a democrat speaker as there are enough RINO representatives that would do such a thing out of spite.
More polls coming out showing increasing support for Trump. Cautious handling required as they may be trying to shape the political battlefield - mainly by progressive democrats seeking a stronger candidate than biden.
Biden / Harris Watch –
biden continues to spin tales about his family. Uncle being eaten by cannibals.
Cyber attacks/warfare – HEIGHTENED ALERT
On Tuesday, FBI Director Christopher Wray repeated his warnings from January (when he stated that China’s hackers are “wreaking havoc” on American infrastructure), remarking that the CCP is “the defining threat of our generation.”
He continued, “China’s hacking program is larger than that of every other major nation combined. If each one of the FBI’s cyber agents and intelligence analysts focused exclusively on the China threat, China’s hackers would still outnumber FBI cyber personnel by at least 50 to 1.”
The ongoing hacking campaign, known already as Volt Typhoon, has gained access to American telecommunications, energy, water, and other companies, including pipeline operators.
Wray charged China is assembling the “ability to physically wreak havoc on our critical infrastructure at a time of its choosing. … it plans to land low blows against civilian infrastructure to try to induce panic.”
A recent report from The Heritage Foundation catalogs how CCP has hackers infiltrated “key sectors including communications, energy, and water,” and “may have the ability to access heating and air conditioning systems to overheat data servers, to cause blackouts by disrupting control rooms that regulate water and electricity, and to manipulate surveillance cameras at some of these facilities.”
OBSERVATION - Continuation of the Volt Typhoon warnings. If initiated, there would be short term impacts that would damage remote operations of a variety of systems, but those should be correctable thru manual operations. By and large as stated, the goals of such a massive cyber attack will be to “try to induce panic” among the population. In hour heavy, internet dependent society, just losing access can cause individuals to melt down, lacking basic skills to be able to gather important information from other sources or even critically evaluate what the heck is happening.
I know it sounds like I kind of poo-poo this threat. No, it has potential to cause real chaos in a short term (measured in a few weeks) scenario. The bigger concern is that it will be part of a much larger unconventional assault on the US should China make its move on Taiwan. This assault may well include more lethal actions from the tens of thousands of Chinese males that have illegally entered the country over the past year.
Illegal Immigration –
Customers packed Cory Gautereaux’s small gun store northeast of San Diego on a recent Friday afternoon.
Many of the people buying pistols at Firearms Unlimited California said they were concerned about the massive number of migrants being released onto the local streets after the area became a hub for the crisis at the border — which is just 25 miles from El Cajon, a Southern California suburb of 105,000 people.
https://nypost.com/2024/04/15/us-news/californians-arming-themselves-over-border-issue/
OBSERVATION - With TX successfully stopping the vast majority of the illegal crossings, illegals have migrated to less defended sectors and Kalifornia is a big open border. This brings with it a surge in crime.
IN RELATED - A jury has failed to convict an AZ rancher of murder for defending his family and property from the threats from illegals.
North/South Korea –
North Korea reportedly has conducted a test on a “super-large warhead” designed for a strategic cruise missile, state media reports, adding that it also launched a new type of anti-aircraft missile.
“The DPRK Missile Administration has conducted a power test of a super-large warhead designed for ‘Hwasal-1 Ra-3’ strategic cruise missile”, KCNA news agency reported on Saturday, referring to North Korea by an abbreviation for its official name – Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.
Cruise missiles are among a growing collection of North Korean weapons designed to overwhelm regional missile defences. They supplement the North’s vast arsenal of ballistic missiles, including intercontinental variants, which are said to be aimed at the continental United States.
OBSERVATION - NK has come a long way from many years ago when every test they did blew up on the launch pad. Now with Russia essentially testing current short range ballistic missile systems for NK in Ukraine, NK is gaining more knowledge.
The big question still remains - has NK been able to stealthily create a nuclear warhead that can be carried by these systems?
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.
The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.
When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 30-70 range with some local highs into the 80s. Increasing chances of showers/rain next week.
RUMINT –
Ukraine could get their hands on promised F-16 fighters as early as this June.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
On my off day, Ukraine took down 15 of 16 X-101, X-69, X-59, and Iskander-K Missiles fired were shot down. 9 of them in Dnipro Oblast. Missiles came from Russian strategic bombers as well as a couple of Russian missile cruisers in the Black Sea that dared to venture out of port.
For the first time during the war Ukraine reported shooting down a Kh-22 missile, likely in Odesa, possibly by a Patriot Air Defense System around the City. It was also the first time an X-69 cruise missiles was reported to have been shot down by Ukraine
Unfortunately, a Russian missile hit a Residential Apartment Building in Dnipro killing and injuring many civilians, including children
One Russian Tu-22M3 Backfire (this is their supersonic bomber) was claimed to have been shot down by Ukraine using a modified S-200 Missile. Kyiv claims that the swing-wing bomber was brought down nearly 200 miles from the Ukrainian border. This bomber likely participated in the earlier missile attack. Stock S-200 systems are almost antique but have a designated range of 200 miles. Ukraine has been modifying them to increase range as well as a potential surface to surface role.
Overnight, explosions from an unspecified source (likely Russian ballistic missile) were reported in Kharkiv, Zaporizhzhia, and Dnipro city.
Russian ministry of Defense claims 50 drones were shot down over Belgorod, Bryansk, Kursk, Tula, Smolensk, Ryazan, Kaluga and Moscow regions. Lukoil oil depot was hit by drones in Kardymovo village of Smolensk region.
Russian forces continue their pressure of Chasiv Yar on the Bakhmut front.
Outlook —
Surges in deep warfare will continue as Ukraine continues to hit Russia oil facilities and Russia tries to further exploit Ukraine’s weakened air defenses.
Russia continues the efforts to capture Chasiv Yar, but it seems recent Ukrainian reinforcements are helping to stabilize the line. Russian artillery superiority in the absence of Ukraine’s artillery ammo deprived defense is furthering their efforts.
ISRAEL –
Dates to remember -
Passover - April 22
Key overnight developments -
- Assessments of Israel’s missile strike on Iran continue.
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
Hamas sees no ground for negotiation with Israel in this moment, Palestinian source told Al-Mayadeen
***
IDF Spokesman: At this time, there is no change in the directives of the Home Front Command. If there are any changes in the future, the public will be informed. -News12
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
IAF continued airstrikes on identified concentrations of Hamas forces throughout the strip.
IDF moving forward to try to evacuate as many as 1 million from Rafah prior to initiating ground operations the root out the last major group of Hamas forces.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Overnight and this morning, more ATGMs, rockets and mortar shells were launched from Lebanon towards Israel. Israeli army retaliated with air strikes and artillery fire.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
A wrap-up of key aspects of the Israeli strike against Iran.
Israel targeted a S-300PMU2 Surface-to-Air Missile Battery and radar site near the Natanz Nuclear Facility in the Isfahan Province of Iran; a 30N6E “Flap Lid” engagement radar and possibly a 96L6E “Cheese Board” acquisition radar appear to have both suffered significant damage. This air defense site provides ‘protection’ for the nearby Natanz Nuclear Facility.
Israel utilized air launched ballistic missiles referred as “Blue Birds”. The Israeli arsenal has three variants and based on recovery of the booster and appears to have used the intermediate version. The missiles were launched over Iraq with no Israeli jets penetrating into Iran.
Iran was caught completely by surprise, apparently taking the bait put out that any attack would occur after Passover. Israel alerted the WH as the last minute (probably when missiles were underway) of the strike.
Amongst the reporting were unconfirmed strikes on other targets. Most were bogus, but one - an Israeli strike on a Syrian air defense radar site in S. Syria was confirmed as well.
There were no losses of any Israeli missiles or aircraft.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces continue to make sweeps throughout the West bank and arresting terrorism suspects.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Largely inactive over the course of the past several weeks.
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
US blocked recognition of “Palestine” as a separate state in the UN
——— FORECAST ————————-
It does look like Iran is stepping back and licking its wounds following two embarrassing episodes - first the massive waste of drones and missiles against Israel, then Israel’s uncontested, though small scale, counter strike.
Basically the world sees that Iran can’t effective hit Israel, nor can it defend from an Israeli strike.
Israel had promised a massive counter strike. The size and scope of that plan may well have been scaled back in order to maintain the fragile coalition of nations that rose to help Israel defend against the Iranian attack. In addition to the US/UK / French fighters, an unprecedented move of support came from Jordan and Saudi Arabian fighters joining in. By all appearances of Iran’s response to the Israeli strike and the apparent quiet approval of global powers, Israel did send a massive message. “We could have taken out the Natanz Nuclear Facility, and still can and you can do nothing about it”. Doubly, Natanz is deep in the interior of Iran, a factor that Iran thought would further deter Israel.
With this episode over, attention now turns back on operations against Rafah and later Hezbollah. Hamas over played its hand in thinking that the Iranian attack would turn the corner in its defense - wrong. Israel’s limited strike has given it a public relations boost, sucking the oxygen out of international bleating over how out of control it is. How quickly they can get the non-combatants moved is not certain, but it can be done quickly, as demonstrated in its initial operations in N Gaza.
AFA Hezbollah goes, Israel will continue to take the opportunities to take out key Hezbollah and even IRGC leadership - to weaken the command structure, in addition to hitting key command, logistics and rocket storage and launching sites. The neutering of the Iranian missile threat for the moment has probably given Hezbollah nightmares. The still possess a very nasty rocket potential that could cause severe damage and loss of life in Israel, but that’s about it. Hezbollah ground assaults have been checked by the sudden Israeli forces build up - now being reinforced by additional call ups of reserver forces.
In the near term, Israel will continue the successful tactics of raiding Hamas forces in Gaza by a combination of air, artillery or rapid ground ops. Efforts to remove civilians from Rafah will hit overdrive. Hezbollah and Iran may deescalate matters for a while until Israel takes out some more biggies. They cannot step back for long because that would be a sign of weakness to the rest of the middle east.
Iran – HEIGHTENED Warning for supported attacks against Israeli and US interests across the globe. Downgraded Apr 20, 2024
Iran working hard to diminish the effect that the Israeli missile strike had. All indicators suggest that in the near term, Iran is backing down from a more aggressive counterstrike and keep putting forth reasons not to hit back. No indicators of a counter strike being prepared.
RUMINT - Russia to transfer 24 Su-35 fighter jets to Iran next week - Iranian media
OBSERVATION - Part of the technology transfer agreement between Iran and Russia in exchange for production of Shahed drones for the Ukraine war. Questionable timing given the recent losses by Russia of this make of fighter and the urgent demands of the war. Could well be a disinformation ploy to scare off Israeli jets.
Iraq -
One killed and six wounded in an airstrike on a military base used by Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) to the south of Baghdad on Friday, according to Iraqi sources.
There were no drones or fighter jets detected in the air space of the Babylon area before or during the blast, the military confirmed in a statement.
According to reports, during the attack, two separate waves of strikes were conducted. Two PMF sources claimed that the strikes did not lead to casualties but caused material damage.
OBSERVATION - Technically, the PMF is officially a branch of the Iraqi army. It has essentially been taken over by Iranian-supported elements and operates as an anti-US / anti-Israel force.
There is a great deal of confusing reporting on the exact cause for the initial explosion - which then generated massive secondary explosions that took out the base. Leading culprit is an IAF air strike, though there are reports of no jet or even drone traffic in the region. Alternatively could be an act of carelessness, saboage or even a strike by ISIS, who’s been more aggressive lately.
Misc of Note –
The biden administration is waging against Grand Canyon University, the largest of its kind in the US over dubious claims that it falsely told pHD candidates its costs were lower than actually charged. U.S. Department of Education Secretary Miguel Cardona reportedly vowed to shutter the Christian college located in Phoenix, Arizona.
OBSERVATION - This poorly fits into the standard categories typical of this report. It reflects the overall hostility of the biden regime towards Christianity in general. It also reflect similar hostility that comes from globalist powers. Classical marxist assault on a country is to destroy any Christian foundations for living. Hence, we see in addition to this the massive LGBT attacks, DEI/CRT efforts, debanking efforts, etc. These are bricks being laid down for a totalitarian govt in the future.
Did you notice how many of the Columbia 'protesters' had matching tents? And that there was a 'drummer' present? The same two 'tells' were present in many of the 'BLM' protest and with many of the illegal's gatherings. Why? Because the same group is behind these seemingly different 'protests'. Oh and the drummer? Also a part of the protest of Supreme Court Justices during Trump's years.
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