Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
The liberal politician Volker Wissing wrote a letter to the coalition’s parliamentary group leaders, as reported by the German outlet BILD last week.
Wissing says that achieving climate goals by reducing traffic would require implementing measures that are difficult to explain to the public, like “comprehensive and indefinite driving bans on Saturdays and Sundays.”
The proposed change to the emissions-reduction law would assess climate goals by considering all sectors collectively rather than separately. If the overarching target is missed for two consecutive years, the federal government would then determine which sector and measures would be used to reach the permitted total carbon dioxide emissions by 2030.
OBSERVATION - Totally wackadoodle? Not hardly, given the track of draconian ‘climate change’ measures being forced on Europeans - and especially the Germans. This does illuminate globalists attack on vehicle use, ignoring the obvious impact on citizens, for negligible reductions in carbon dioxide.
***
In the WEF test bed of Canada, pushing the wuhan boundaries of population controls continue.
As of Monday, Alberta Health Services (AHS) has updated its guidance on mRNA COVID-19 booster shots to every three months, beginning with six-month-old babies.
That works out to about 320 doses for the average lifespan
You’re supposed to take your baby to the doc FOUR TIMES A YEAR to get a new Covid booster.
Thank goodness this insane vax schedule doesn’t appear to be mandated. How long will that last?
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Investigators are digging down into the support base for the A15 protests that shut down major cities on Monday. Organizers set up an A15 bail fund to get arrested activists out of jail. Bail fund donations were being run through ActBlue, the Democratic Party’s fundraising website, while Community Justice Exchange, a project of the Soros-backed Tides Center, is administering the fund itself.
OBSERVATION - Most likely leadership based in the far leftist socialist / progressive democrat wing. Not sure your rank and file democrats who overwhelmingly live in these urban hell holes would appreciate knowing that elements of their own party totally screwed up life for that day.
I also noted that some analysts see Monday’s protests as a potential warm up for follow on actions to grow in intensity as the election approaches and definitely should Trump win back the presidency.
Economy-
Reuters - U.S. single-family homebuilding tumbled in March, and while new construction remains underpinned by a severe shortage of previously owned houses for sale, a resurgence in mortgage rates is pushing potential buyers to the sidelines.
The report from the Commerce Department on Tuesday also showed permits for future construction of single-family houses fell to a five-month low. Residential investment rebounded in the second half of 2023 after contracting for nine straight quarters, the longest such stretch since the housing market collapse in 2006. But the recovery appears to be losing steam.
“The housing recovery has stalled for now as home builder expectations of sharply lower interest rates this year have faded,” said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS. “One thing is for certain, and that is home prices are going to be on an upward, more unaffordable trend without more supply.”
Single-family housing starts, which account for the bulk of homebuilding, dropped 12.4% to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.022 million units last month, the Commerce Department’s Census Bureau said. Data for February was revised higher to show single-family starts rebounding to a rate of 1.167 million units instead of the previously reported 1.129 million units.
OBSERVATION - I’ve noted many times, economists look to the housing market to gauge the health of the economy and to see if / when things are going to improve. Things are not looking good nor improve any time soon.
***
Related to the above.
A new report from GOBankingRates used that framework to analyze how much money a family of two adults and two children would need in each state to own a home, a car and a pet. The report tallied estimated annual essential expenses for such a family and then doubled that figure.
Using that framework, GoBankingRates found that all 50 states require more than a $100,000 annual income, according to the report, with 38 states needing more than $140,000.
The real estate firm Zillow reports that since January 2020, the monthly mortgage payment on a typical U.S. home has nearly doubled. It’s up 96% in just four years.
According to Zillow, a typical buyer will now pay nearly $2,200 a month, with a 10% down payment. Meaning, homeownership now costs well above the 30% of median income that was once thought to equate to “affordable” housing cost in America.
OBSERVATION - This not only seriously stress family economics of essentially forced living in almost equally high priced rentals, but also puts a serious pinch on those trying to flee urban regions to get away from increased crime and even higher costs of living. Now note - this is HOUSING only, doesn’t include auto and other things like credit card debt that eat huge holes in a family budget.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
In a week laden with news, we shouldn’t overlook the oral argument held yesterday by the Supreme Court in Fischer v. United States. The issue before the Court. Fischer is one of some 350 January 6 defendants charged with obstructing an official congressional proceeding allegedly in violation of 18 U.S.C. § 1512(c)(2) of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act (as well as other federal offenses). The question before the Court is whether the U.S. Court of Appeals for the District of Columbia Circuit erred in construing the statute, which prohibits obstruction of congressional inquiries and investigations, to include acts unrelated to investigations and evidence.
https://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2024/04/in-the-j6-cases.php
***
House forwarded the impeachment documents to the Senate yesterday, where Schumer is likely to table and ignore taking any action, though the constitution requires the Senate to act.
Biden / Harris Watch –
(FO) Nasty potential brewing, while responding to reporters’ questions about possible Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) releases, White House senior advisor John Podesta said President Biden wants to keep the price of gasoline low, “and we’ll do what we can to make sure that that happens.”
Macquarie Group analyst Vikas Dwivaldi said the Biden administration would have to release oil from the SPR “with a lot of aggressiveness to tame prices,” and the SPR is the most effective tool for the administration to keep prices from spiking.
OBSERVATION - biden has already drained the reserver to an estimated 17 days worth of reserve and has refused to refill it because of “high costs”. Hideous act to try to purchase support for his presidential campaign at the expense of the country.
Cyber attacks/warfare – HEIGHTENED ALERT
Rumblings across the cyber defense world of increasing concerns over Iranian based cyber attacks as the direct conflict between Israel and Iran grows.
Illegal Immigration –
Hundreds (thousands) of illegals swarmed INYC hall making multiple demands including allowing them to use luxury hotels instead of the shelters the city along with more other benefits and work permits.
***
Under President Joe Biden, the number of Chinese nationals crossing the nation’s borders has increased by more than 37,000 percent in just three years, new Department of Homeland Security (DHS) data reveals.
In the last six months, which represents the first half of Fiscal Year 2024, nearly 25,000 Chinese nationals crossed United States borders and were encountered by Border Patrol agents.
During the same period in Fiscal Year 2021, just 65 Chinese nationals were encountered by Border Patrol while crossing U.S. borders. By the first half of Fiscal Year 2022, Chinese crossings had increased to 432 in the same period
OBSERVATION - This is very concerning given the fact that China essentially has forced any Chinese citizen who works or goes to college here to be essentially a spy for the CCP and given the increased tensions over Taiwan, undocumented Chinese roaming the country (predominantly military aged men) is a serious concern for terrorism and worse.
China –
Chinese leader Xi Jinping recently declared his unlimited friendship with Russia and its leader Vladimir Putin. China does not give money to allies or business partners. China invests and expects a return on that investment. In the last two years a lot of Chinese cash and economic assistance has gone to Russia, which has enabled Russia to keep its war in Ukraine going. Without the Chinese aid, Russia would have economic problems at home because of Western sanctions imposed in 2014 and 2022.
With other countries, China offers various economic support - with a caveat being that if there is no repayment, then various strategic items would be turned over to Chinese control. Third world countries have faced this when they default on their ‘loans’, getting China control of critical mining and mineral resources.
Some suspect that China may be maneuvering Russia into ceding parts of eastern Russia that they had seized from China in the past.
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.
The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.
When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.
*****
Russian Personnel Issues –-
Russia’s military death toll in Ukraine has now passed the 50,000 mark, the BBC can confirm.
In the second 12 months on the front line - as Moscow pushed its so-called meat grinder strategy - we found the body count was nearly 25% higher than in the first year.
BBC Russian, independent media group Mediazona and volunteers have been counting deaths since February 2022.
More than 27,300 Russian soldiers died in the second year of combat - according to our findings - a reflection of how territorial gains have come at a huge human cost.
The overall death toll - of more than 50,000 - is eight times higher than the only official public acknowledgement of fatality numbers ever given by Moscow in September 2022.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-68819853
OBSERVATION - These numbers are based on counting the number of new graves at military cemeteries using available open source imagery. These numbers do not include the hundreds of thousands (estimate of near 400,000) of those wounded severely enough to be taken out of combat.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 30-70 range with some local highs into the 80s. Increasing chances of showers/rain next week.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
NASA’s FIRMS shows a massive fire at Dzhankoi airbase in Russian-occupied Crimea, after a Ukrainian strike earlier tonight. Massive stockpiles of Russian munitions were observed to explode for a considerable time afterwords. Unconfirmed reports from Russian sources indicate that Ukraine also destroyed a warehouse of hypersonic Zircon missiles. Initial estimates Ukraine used 12 ATACMS missiles.
Russia hit Chernihiv with three missiles, in the city center. Viacheslav Chaus, Head of Chernihiv Oblast Military Administration reports that there are many dead and injured people. Rescue workers and medics are at the scene.
However, things on the eastern front are getting grim. Russian gains have gone from measurable in meters to kilometers now. The main difference is the lack of Ukrainian artillery support that has been key to its defense. This is seen in the Avdiivka front especially .
Outlook —
Harsh realities hitting Ukraine. Russia’s momentum and initiative are growing. This has even begun to be evident in the return to actual maneuver by Russian forces rather than clawing for ground in positional battles. Still suffering high losses, unless Ukraine receives an infusion of artillery shells as well as ADA munitions, a tipping point could soon be reached, especially in the fight for Chasiv Yar.
ISRAEL –
Dates to remember -
Passover - April 22
Key overnight developments -
- International suspense continues on the impending Israeli counter strike against Iran
——— GENERAL ——————————-
Lest we forget - there are still hostages being held in Gaza.
***
Hamas continues to hold to its demands that Israel essentially surrender and withdraw from Gaza for at least 6 weeks before any hostages are released, and even then thousands of terrorists jailed in Israel are to be released. Comments by Hamas suggest that there are few hostages left alive.
***
US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan announced on Tuesday that the US will impose new sanctions on Iran following its missile and drone attack on Israel.
“Following Iran’s unprecedented air attack against Israel, President Biden is coordinating with allies and partners, including the G7, and with bipartisan leaders in Congress, on a comprehensive response,” Sullivan said in a statement.
“In the coming days, the United States will impose new sanctions targeting Iran, including its missile and drone program as well as new sanctions against entities supporting the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and Iran’s Defense Ministry. We anticipate that our allies and partners will soon be following with their own sanctions,” he added.
“In addition,” Sullivan said, “we continue to work through the Department of Defense and US Central Command to further strengthen and expand the successful integration of air and missile defense and early warning systems across the Middle East to further erode the effectiveness of Iran’s missile and UAV capabilities.”
https://harbingersdaily.com/israel-at-war-week-27/
***
Numerous foreign policy experts are urging Israel to deliver a “disproportionate” military response to Iran’s attacks over the weekend and are warning that time is winding down to deal with the Islamic Republic before it becomes a nuclear state.
Part of what is driving the concern from foreign policy and military experts is that Iran has strengthened its relationship with Russia and may soon acquire more advanced military hardware from the Russians that will make it much harder for the U.S., Israel, and Arab allies in the region to counter Iranian threats.
OBSERVATION - “disproportionate” = Strength forms deterrent in arab minds.
Some of those concerns over advanced military hardware from Russia may be dampened by overwhelming need for Russia to use those assets in its fight against Ukraine. More likely they would supply technical advice and allow Iran to clone its systems on its own (with ample payback for access to the technology)
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
Reports that IDF has started to elevate readiness for large assault on Rafah overnight, army mobilizes more artillery, armored vehicles, mobile command centers; defense minister & IDF chief approve blueprint of planned operation. This follows recent statements by Netanyahu and others that the operation is still on and a date has been set to kick it off.
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Action between Hezbollah and Israel ticked upwards a notch yesterday.
7 missiles launched from Lebanon landed in open areas around the Meron base in the Upper Galilee. IDF reportedly hitting the launch sites with artillery. The Meron Base has several key, air defense radar systems.
This rocket attack is reportedly in response to the IDF allegedly striking, aka assassinating, commanders in Syria and Lebanon over the past few days.
The Israeli army announces the elimination of the commander of the missile unit in the western sector of the Radwan Force, Muhammad Hussein Mustafa Shahhouri, in Kafr Donin, southern Lebanon in a targeted drone strike.
In addition to Shahhouri, Hezbollah announced the deaths of two more operatives killed “on the road to Jerusalem,” its term for operatives slain in Israeli strikes. Their deaths bring the terror group’s toll since the beginning of the war in the Gaza Strip to 278.
The IDF says it carried out additional strikes against buildings used by Hezbollah and where operatives were gathered in southern Lebanon today.
The strikes were carried out in the towns of Ain Baal, Aalma ash-Shab, Hanine, and Yaroun, the military says.
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Israeli new reports alternate between different versions of the decision to launch a counter strike against Iran, apparently swayed by various rumors and planted stories by “officals”. This is likely an effort to keep Iran guessing on response size and timing. Iran did similar prior to its missile attack.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces continue to conduct operations throughout the West Bank to arrest terror suspects and break up Hamas and related terror cells.
———“ISLAMIC RESISTANCE” ———————————
Continued quiet except for some very minimal Houthi activity .
———INTERNATIONAL ——————————-
German Foreign Minister - Iran must stop the proxy war it is conducting through the Houthis and others
——— FORECAST ————————-
Waiting game for the Israeli counter strike continues with a lot of continued apparent disinformation and propaganda flying fast. Speculation continues to look at significant dates that may be used to hinge the attack on - for further symbolic purposes.
One such date is Purim. This is when the Jews commemorate the saving of the Jewish people from annihilation at the hands of an official of the Persian Empire named Haman, as it is recounted in the Book of Esther.
Purim this year is April 22-30
Passover - April 22 - is another date to be considered.
Thursday, the 18th of April, is the Islamic Republic of Iran Army Day.
Another factor is the cry to prevent escalation of conflict. This is a two edged sword. Yes, an Israeli strike has the strong possibility of initiation Iranian retaliation and so forth. But INACTION threatens the same escalation in that Israel would then been seen as ‘weak’, inviting more aggressive attacks by Iran.
As I’ve pointed out many times - strength deters, weakness invites.
Israel can’t wait long or international pressure to claim victory and move on will grow and eliminate potential benefits of a strike.
Bottom line is we are moving quickly into dangerous territory.
Action also continues at a fast pace in Lebanon with the latest successful targeting of senior Hezbollah leadership. This is digging into Hezbollah’s capabilities to conduct a war with Israel, forcing less experienced leaders to take over when facing a war for the survival of Hezbollah. Hezbollah is trying to retaliate, but I think the inefficiency of those attacks are showing the lack of leadership and planning.
The focus back on Gaza and in particular Rafah is growing and I think Israel will soon act. With Hamas totally sabotaging any hostage / ceasefire negotiations, there will be no more options or patience by Israel.
Iran – HIGH Warning for supported attacks against Israeli and US interests across the globe. Apr 2, 2024
CNN reports that the US will ‘restrict the movements of Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian’ while he is in New York for a United Nations meeting this week.
***
If this report from Reuters is accurate, the mullahs of Tehran have every reason to worry. Not just because Iranians know that Israel will eventually respond to the missile attack, and not because they fear the Israelis. They are sick of the mullahs, and now worry that the IRGC has pulled them into a war that will make their lives even more miserable than usual:
“”Economic pressure will mount, our safety will be jeopardized ... We must avoid conflict at all cost. I don’t want a war. How can I protect my two children? Nowhere will be safe.”
Housewife Parvaneh fears an Israeli strike could be the final hammer blow to the economy, weakened by years of sanctions, mismanagement and corruption.
“We Iranians have endured more than enough for years. War brings only disaster. My husband is a factory worker. We do not have even enough money to buy staples let alone stockpiling them,” said the 37-year-old mother-of-two in the central city of Yazd.”
OBSERVATION - Iran has been hit with several large and prolonged protests over the past several years. One of the biggest contributors to these protests are economic conditions that have been made worse by the decisions of the mullahs to support terrorism and the resulting global push backs. Add to it the increasingly nasty islamic shariah crackdowns on women with uncovered heads and more make things a tinderbox.
Syria -
ISIS is making Iranian-backed militias lives miserable after seizing large quantities of anti-tank missile system (Konkurs) from a Syrian supported base.
OBSERVATION - This could be another reason for the drop in attacking US / Coalition bases in eastern Syria/Iraq of recent weeks.
No post for tomorrow (Friday ) or Sunday. I have family commitments that will prevent me from spending the hours researching and producing this report.
Globalism / Great Reset –
Upcoming meetings of importance
- WHO pandemic ‘treaty’ May 2024
CW2 / Domestic violence - Heightened THREAT
Some outlets out there are trying to link ISIS to the April 15 protests. I’m dubious about such a linkage but cannot fully rule it out. Radical islam will affiliate with other elements against a common enemy when it suits their purposes. ISIS has been on the ascendancy over the past year or so, and seeing the political chaos growing in the US as an opportunity to keep us occupied here under pro-hamas protesting could be a win for them.
Terrorism - HIGH THREAT as of APR 8, 2024
U.S. Northern Command (USNORTHCOM) has reportedly raised the Force Protection Condition (FPCON) for military bases across the country to FPCON CHARLIE following Saturday night’s large-scale attack by Iran against Israel within the Central Command Area-of Responsibility, with an increase in security as well as armed patrols and 100% ID checks now required at all bases around the United States.
Military / Strategic Activity / Deployments –
The US Navy ship, the USNS 2nd LT John P. Bobo, en route to the eastern Mediterranean to help the US military set up a pier for aid to Gaza had to turn back last week after experiencing a fire, a Navy spokesperson told CNN.It is not clear how the delay will affect the construction of the floating pier and causeway, which the Pentagon has said is expected to be operational by late April or early May
***
Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro today told lawmakers his service is out at least $1 billion in critical munitions because of recent operations in the Middle East, a shortfall the Pentagon is banking on a congressional supplemental to help replenish.
“We currently have approaching $1 billion in munitions that we need to replenish at some point in time,” Del Toro told the Senate Appropriations subcommittee on defense. “So, therefore the over $2 billion that’s provided for in the supplemental is direly critical to our Navy and Marine Corps to be able to replenish those munitions and continue to provide the types of defensive measures that we have this past six months now.”
https://breakingdefense.com/2024/04/navy-is-down-1b-in-munitions-from-ops-in-red-sea-says-secnav/
Wuhan and other “new” Plandemics –
A comprehensive review by an international consortium of scientists has raised serious concerns about the COVID-19 mRNA vaccines’ safety profile.
Review articles are summaries of current research on a particular topic. They are also sometimes called literature reviews or secondary sources.
The review, “N1-methyl-pseudouridine (m1Ψ): Friend or foe of cancer?” published on Science Direct, delves into the potential implications of a vaccine ingredient—N1-methyl-pseudouridine (m1Ψ)—that may play a role in immune suppression and cancer proliferation.
m1Ψ was incorporated into Pfizer-BioNTech’s COVID-19 mRNA vaccine to enhance its efficacy.
This component was introduced in the mRNA vaccine as a means to produce a significant amount of modified SARS-CoV-2 spike mRNA through in vitro transcription (IVT). This modification was crucial in the rapid development and deployment of the vaccine during the height of the pandemic.
However, the review article calls into question the long-term impacts of this modification, especially concerning the vaccine’s interaction with the body’s immune response and potential carcinogenic effects.
According to the review’s abstract, evidence suggests that while mRNA vaccines may have been “effective” in reducing severe disease outcomes, they might not provide sterilizing immunity, leaving individuals susceptible to recurring infections.
More critically, the review highlights that the inclusion of m1Ψ in mRNA vaccines appears to inhibit key immunological pathways, impairing the body’s early interferon signaling.
“Based on this compelling evidence, we suggest that future clinical trials for cancers or infectious diseases should not use mRNA vaccines with a 100 % m1Ψ modification, but rather ones with the lower percentage of m1Ψ modification to avoid immune suppression,” the researchers said.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0141813024022323?via=ihub
OBSERVATION - Article and links indicate the jab accelerates the development of cancers - an ongoing medical worry of the past couple years. This concoction was designed to kill people in a dozen different ways.
POLITICAL FRONT –
July 15 RNC convention in Milwaukee, WI
August 19 DNC convention in Chicago, IL
***
Chaos and turmoil among house republicans over pending spending bills while nothing for border security.
As screwed up as that is, IMHO it would be even worse if the republicans try to vacate the speakership. Very strong possibility of republican defections to the democrat side and we’d have a democrat controlled congress pushing massive anti american legislation thru before the elections.
Johnson is going to have to face the piper after the election.
***
News reports beginning to question Chicago’s ability to protect the Democrat convention this summer.
The 911 system was down in nearly a dozen states yesterday. There has been no reason given for the widespread outage but a lot of rumors that it may have been due to a some kind of cyber attack - unconfirmed.
Illegal Immigration –
The Senate quickly dispensed with the two impeachment charges against Department of Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, ending a months-long effort to punish him for his handling of the southern border.
OBSERVATION - Vote was by straight party lines. We’ve known all along the border ‘crisis’ has been deliberately managed to get as many illegals into the country and overload the law enforcement and social welfare support systems as possible while overwhelming local voter registration screening efforts.
China –
Major Chinese banks are refusing transfers from Russia in yuan in reportedly an effort to avoid western sanctions for supporting Russia
Russia -
WAR WATCH - into the third year of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine - Feb 24th, 2022
CURRENT ASSESSMENT - Updated Mar 21, 2024.
Russia has taken advantage of Ukrainian ammo shortages, forcing them into primary defensive operations, and has seized the initiative following the fall of Avdiivka. Russia has reportedly concentrated 40,000 troops to sustain this offensive. The attacks are scattered along the front, concentrating on five axises of attack -
- Avdiivka,
- Maryinka,
- Robotyne,
- Kremenka and
- Bakhmut.
Russia has been able to gradually enlarge the number of soldiers in the theatre to the 400,000 range. Training and equipping of these forces is still rated very poor. Russia has drawn heavily upon ‘volunteers’ from penal colonies for their “Z” shock troops- the primary element of their meat attack (human wave) assaults against Ukraine defenses. It has been documented that ‘enforcement’ squads follow behind these ‘shock troops’ with orders to shoot any who attempt to retreat.
With the exception of Avdiivka, initial Russia attacks along the other axises have had poor results and exceptionally heavy losses. Russia continues to suffer heavy tank and APC losses. Old, cold war era tanks and APCs are becoming more and more common sights in battle fields. (formerly) Elite units like the Russian marines are routinely seen with T54/55 series tanks instead of the T72/80/90 series they were commonly equipped with. In some cases, over 70% of these newer tanks have been destroyed or captured by Ukraine.
In these other attacks, Russia continues to make poor use of fire and maneuver, preferring tank/armor ‘charges’ across open areas and down roads. This brings them into prepared kill zones where these forces are stopped and destroyed.
The most significant change in Russian tactics is on the Avdiivka front, where Russian is doing a much better job of launching what one could consider combined arms attacks.
When Ukraine lacks the artillery, Russian forces are able to penetrate in mass and overwhelm the fewer Ukrainian defenders.
Russian organization and capabilities make it unlikely that they will be able to quickly take advantage of penetrations into Ukrainian defenses. Poor training and lack of leadership at all levels, combined with poor logistic trains, will prevent any major breakouts beyond initial penetration of lines.
Shortages of Ukraine artillery ammo has permitted Russia to regain some degree of local superiority on the battlefield. Some estimates give Russia a 3:1 advantage. This is down substantially from the start of the war where it had a 10:1 advantage. Russia is relying heavily on N Korean artillery rounds and Iranian drone/missiles.
Russian appears to be continuing to shepherd its stockpile of missiles/drones for a potential effort to take down the Ukraine power grid as they did winter 2022./23 This task has become increasingly difficult as Ukraine adds air defense systems and gets better coverage. Ammo shortages are starting to impact Ukraine ADA defenses.
The Russian Black Sea fleet is is essentially impotent and hesitant to deploy into now contested waters. In the latest, large missile / drone attack, the Black Sea fleet was noticeably out of action. Ukraine continues to engage and destroy Russian naval vessels..
While the Russia air force has taken significant losses at the hands of Ukraine, early in this winter/spring offensive, Russian has more aggressively conducted CAS in support of ground troops, reflecting ADA shortages. As a result, Russia has been able to locally seize air superiority at key locations along the front - the first time in two years of fighting. This has been at a cost, with a number Su-34/35 aircraft being lost in the last part of February alone as well as critical A50 AWAC systems.
Russian leadership reportedly planning for a long duration conflict, hoping to wear the Ukraine army down and cause European allies to tire of their support - forcing some sort of cease fire and negotiated peace. putin is struggling to place his economy on wartime footing to accomplish this goal.
Unknowns at this time are how soon ammo supples will start hitting Ukrainian units. Long range ATACMS and German Taurus cruise missiles may be coming on line soon for Ukraine as well as F-16s (now reportedly due in late spring/early summer). But the most critical item is artillery ammo.
*****
*NOTE* - I’m working on a reassessment of the above, but events in Israel keep diverting my time.
Ukraine –
WEATHER FORECAST – Temperatures continue in the 30-70 range with some local highs into the 80s. Increasing chances of showers/rain next week.
24 HOUR ROUND UP –
Ukrainian air defense shot down 13 of 13 Shahed drones overnight.
A Ukrainian long range strike drone targeted the Gorbunov Aviation Plant in Kazan, Tatarstan. The plant manufactures and repairs Tu-22M and Tu-160M bombers. The drone traveled about 1,000 Km to conduct the strike.
Primary fighting focused on the Bakhmut and Avdiivka sectors. Minor fighting at the Ukraine bridgehead near Kherson.
Ukraine’s ATACMS strike on Dzhankoi Air Base yesterday was likely one of the most successful strikes, if not the most successful strike of the entire war
~12 Mi-28, Ka-52 Helicopters were stationed there, in total costing $210 million, and an S-400 was hit too, worth $500 million
These numbers don’t include other munition losses.
Outlook —
The Russia march continues, forcing Ukraine to give up terrain it had long successfully defended. Weather conditions support the off road operations as well.
ISRAEL –
Dates to remember -
Passover - April 22
Key overnight developments -
- International suspense continues on the impending Israeli counter strike against Iran
——— GAZA FRONT ———————————-
IAF hit dozens of targets throughout Gaza.
Israeli Broadcasting Corporation: The army is waiting for the green light to begin operations in Rafah, southern Gaza. The army’s invasion of Rafah will take place in two stages
The second stage of the Rafah invasion will be the establishment of displacement sites before the ground operation
——— LEBANON / HEZBOLLAH——————————-
Action between Hezbollah and Israel ticked upwards a notch yesterday.
The IAF targeted Hezbollah infrastructure in Baalbek, eastern Lebanon
——— SYRIA / HEZBOLLAH / IRAN———————————-
Israel will probably hold off on retaliating against Iran until the Jewish holiday of Passover has passed, ABC News reported on Wednesday.
A senior U.S. official said that Israel’s decision “could always change,” adding that Iran’s senior officials and Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) continue to be on high alert, with some staying in safe houses and underground facilities.
Axios reported that one of the strikes was supposed to happen Monday night before it was postponed.
“We are not sure why and how close it was to an actual attack,” a U.S. official told Axios. The strike was canceled for “operational reasons,” two Israeli sources said.
———WEST BANK——————————-
Israeli security forces continue to conduct operations throughout the West Bank to arrest terror suspects and break up Hamas and related terror cells.
Israeli forces arrested 40 Palestinians in the West Bank since yesterday. Israel security services say they arrested an ISIS operative in Ramallah area tonight who was planning to carry out an immediate terror attack
——— FORECAST ————————-
Waiting game for the Israeli counter strike continues.
There is no doubt that Israel is facing gigantic pressure not to strike Iran, or at least minimize any counter strike. This could even go as far as the US saying behind closed doors (my speculation ) not to expect similar defense of Israel when Iran hits back from the Israeli strike. There are very strong voices within the Israeli govt to go big on the counter strike and Netanyahu is stuck between them and trying to maintain the international support expressed in the defense of Israel.
With the time delay, a post Passover scenario is most likely, that way any Iranian attack will not interfere with the holy day.
Also on the near term is the entrance into Rafah. The clock is ticking and preparations are well underway. Revelations that hamas has likely killed most of the hostages will remove a lot of the restraint once the operation begins.
The silence out of the “islamic resistance”, with the exception of the few missiles the Houthi fired during Irans missile strike continues. As noted before, the Iranian backed militias may have their hands full with ISIS. Airstrikes against the Houthi may have managed to hit them where it hurts and dissuaded them from further attacks. Hard to say at this juncture.
Armenia/Azerbaijan –
Russian ‘peace keeping’ forces pulling out of the region.